02/12/2013 Live Update

[uempel]

It's fun to watch the 1 min - the bulls are impressive. As soon as the bears try to attack they start buying again. Like some lengthy battle in the Middle Ages. I wonder who has more soldiers, more aummunition, a more cunning battle plan

N.B. - I'm betting on the bulls up to 1522 - 1525

[johnnywa]

still in Triangle only bigger. the bias still is a little bit on the upside.

OMG are we ever gonna have a five point pullback

[Mr. T]

still in Triangle only bigger. the bias still is a little bit on the upside.

OMG are we ever gonna have a five point pullback

Never.... just wait till we hit SPX 1600, then bears will really be ticked off.

[johnnywa]

lets all go long and richer beyond our wildest dreams

[quientuves]

still in Triangle only bigger. the bias still is a little bit on the upside.

OMG are we ever gonna have a five point pullback

five points pullback... what's that? and more important: Isn't there a federal law against something like it?

Yeah, let's dream and marry Kate Upton...

[Al_Dente]

"Mensa-snake"

i laughed so hard on the mensa-snake’s midnight board a few nights (?) ago
something about “xxxxx will make the bears shut-up”
FYI: i’m not laughing today... not yet...

[Al_Dente]

oh fuggettaboutit
just btfd

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hz64hWng2vM

[johnnywa]

oh fuggettaboutit
just btfd

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hz64hWng2vM

You funny cause there be no dip

[daytradingES]

still in Triangle only bigger. the bias still is a little bit on the upside.

OMG are we ever gonna have a five point pullback

five points pullback... what's that? and more important: Isn't there a federal law against something like it?

Yeah, let's dream and marry Kate Upton...

[BigChief]

SPY 5min, let's see what this market can do on the upside breakout

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:26 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/02 ... ay-update/

[Out of Bounds]

oh fuggettaboutit
just btfd

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hz64hWng2vM

We are never going have a dip again. Todamoooon.

[Al_Dente]

oh fuggettaboutit
just btfd
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hz64hWng2vM

You funny cause there be no dip

btw new hi 152.06
i hate new highs on 5m shooting star thingies
but it’s green so…
oy

[Cobra]

breakout as expected, here's the text book target.

[Out of Bounds]

breakout as expected, here's the text book target.

[taggard]

[quote="Al_Dente"]oh fuggettaboutit
just btfd

Using the spx "what's going on" on a daily? ok breakout over 8 daily bars. rule of thumb? if you want a reversal over a breakout--confirmed yesterday (check the tail) ball park it at 50% of the range prior the breakout and you will often be close enough for goverment work. lets see that 4 daily bars suggesting at best problems wed-fri of options exp week. so if i was clueless (which i am) i would not try too hard to get a confirmed (ok only 1 day) breakout to fail prior to at least the 50% rule which works fairly well for me on average.

next lets for fun assume that there is a reversal--where would we go? er lets see no hits of the daily 20 ema--so (rule-o-thumb) we hit that and bounce to old highs the first "serious reversal".

next we can estimate the daily 20 ema to be over 1500 in a day or so--and close to the sort of average of the range top at 1510 by next week sometime. that would would be around the time everyone freaks out over a cut of 100 billion in a nearly 4 trillion budget. also about the end of feb and start of march where sometime there is a "run for the roses" into the end of the quarter earnings.

bottom line on the first hit and thus likely hold of the daily 20 ema? at least the old high and odds are from past uptrends i have seen we go higher. but that as a rule (nothing always works) you don't get a huge sell in an uptrend until the 20 ema gets hit the first time and holds.

what do we have that seems at all different? the cash flows into funds. ideally this stops/slows at some point--likely by tax day if not sooner. Further the move up gets so tweaked that we become imbalanced someplace maybe the late feb to april time frame. but the head scratcher is--is there an exogenous event to set this stuff off. for those that like the idea that "you don't fight the fed" this is sort of an ideal thing to consider because with the fed and federal spending holding things up--for stuff to go wrong in a meaningful way--you need an event. The good news is we are totally sure to get one--the bad news is maybe this takes 1-3 months.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f39Zs0gB87c

[Al_Dente]

from the Al Brooks School of 5 minute candle watching/ocd
[paraphrased]
“It’s either a trend candle or a doji. Period.”

oh dang, I forgot to vote today https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m24uUzJgfwQ

[johnnywa]

that was depressing

[Cobra]

some PM me asking for exact target. here's the some numbers.

[Cobra]

breakout as expected, here's the text book target.

Why " " ?