02/16/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Begin with Algo from stocktiming.

The negative divergence while overbought I have been waiting for finally is in place, so guess a meaningful pullback finally is due.

[Cobra]

II still not extreme enough while AAII actually is less bullish.

[Cobra]

My only question is how high the gap price could go before hitting the spotlight?
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /243344243;

[johnnywa]

Thats amazing around 1550-to all time high.That would put us 200 + points up from Nov 16th bottom.We have not had a correction bottom to top without the SnP running up a minium of 200 points going back 5 years at least and never shorter than 3 months.Right now timewise we are ready but price needs at least 30 more points.

[Cobra]

summary of the week's stock picks. If you know BUY STOP, the weekly stock picks is a real gem, don't ignore it.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=822&p=118399#p118399

[Cobra]

stock picks for the next week: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=829&p=118401#p118401

[uempel]

Begin with Algo from stocktiming.

The negative divergence while overbought I have been waiting for finally is in place, so guess a meaningful pullback finally is due.

This is interesting, similar warning signs sent out by BPNYA and BPSPX. A bear will read them as bearish, a bull should read them as an warning signal.

I wrote this in your restricted "Presidential Platinium Executive only for members Blog", here for the ordinary people

BPNYA -0.16%, BPCOMPQ -0.22%, BPSPX +0.24%, BPNDX +2.50%, BPFINA -1.39%, BPOEX -2.44% and BPINDU is flat. Large capitalization stocks: aapl -0.09%, goog +0.63%, xom -0.18%, wmt -2.15% (the disclosed e-mail) and msft -0.11%.

BPNYA is the leading indicator and its weakness is a warning for the bulls, an additional warning are the whipsaws of BPSPX shown in the chart below:

[Out of Bounds]

don't ignore it.

I feel bad that I haven't paid more attention. Quite frankly, I kept forgetting.

[gappy]

spoutlook.pdf

This is S&P Capitol IQ's $7.00 weekly outlook propaganda. Please let me know if it will not open for you or is worth reading and I will delete the effort. TIA.

[Dandy46]

The link opened fine! Interesting information. Please post future installments.

[gappy]

The link opened fine! Interesting information. Please post future installments.

OK, thank you. Next print to be around March 4th.

[Mr. BachNut]

SKEW update.

SKEW reached the thin air this week and is at peaking levels.
The pop this week is interesting in so far as it suggests risk insurance was bid even though the SPX didn't do much.

Based on prior experience, it is probable we shall see a correction warning (weekly close below moving average) issue this coming week though it could slip to next.
While it is possible an actual correction could start this week, the signal (if it is not a dud) usually arrives before the correction gets going.
So, I would say the current state of play on SKEW kinda fits what Cobra is suggesting in his evil plan timing wise (a little down, then retest high, then correction).

[Cobra]

It’s one of the most widespread Wall Street clichés: “Never sell a dull market short,” meaning that it's supposedly dangerous going short in a market that's doing nothing. Well, how good is this advice? From October 3, 1928 through February 7, 2011, comparing the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJII) vs. normal and abnormal volatility, with volatility defined as the percentage spread between the intra-day high and low, when the volatility index was greater than 20% above a 1-year average, the DJII gained at a 13.4% annualized rate of return. When volatility was normal, which was around two-thirds of the time, the DJII gained a fairly normal amount, 3.5%. But when volatility was 20% less than a 1-year average, the DJII gained a miniscule 2.7%. So the Wall Street cliché, “Never sell a dull market short” is simply wrong. In fact, it’s the best type of market to sell short, all other things being equal.”

[Harapa]

SKEW closed above its Bollinger's band on FRI. This chart shows all such occurrences since the beginning of 2009.
Red vertical lines indicate times when SPY 5 days later was at or lower than the close of trigger day and green vertical lines when it was higher 5 days later. I see a little more red than green.

[Out of Bounds]

It’s one of the most widespread Wall Street clichés: “Never sell a dull market short,” meaning that it's supposedly dangerous going short in a market that's doing nothing. Well, how good is this advice? From October 3, 1928 through February 7, 2011, comparing the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJII) vs. normal and abnormal volatility, with volatility defined as the percentage spread between the intra-day high and low, when the volatility index was greater than 20% above a 1-year average, the DJII gained at a 13.4% annualized rate of return. When volatility was normal, which was around two-thirds of the time, the DJII gained a fairly normal amount, 3.5%. But when volatility was 20% less than a 1-year average, the DJII gained a miniscule 2.7%. So the Wall Street cliché, “Never sell a dull market short” is simply wrong. In fact, it’s the best type of market to sell short, all other things being equal.”

Wow. That was incredibly interesting. I love analysis like that.

[gappy]

gasbpspx.png

The price of gas in Petrodollars leads BPSPX up and adusts down only after the market demonstrates it can't maintain the momentum.

[gappy]

two.png

The SPX price will not appreciably drop until the BPSPX 20/sma death crosses the 50/sma.

[Al_Dente]

PAGING KETCHUP:
“SEC Investigators Review Surge in Heinz Trades Before Merger”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-1 ... l_wsb_ts_1


PAGING WMT
Horse shit in the Beef Bolognese
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100462708?source=email_wsb_ts_8

[Al_Dente]

Near top?
Percent of stocks above 50ma
$NYA50R issued a sell signal (red circle).
The others are at a tipping point. The pink arrows show that any further weakness will tip them over into a sell signal
….conversly any strength will turn them back up…...but down is more likely…
Most of the indices are priced in faded grey hlc bars behind, so you can see these signals are timely, but the %50ma likes to bounce with the indices,
so it doesn’t usually pay for a “trend follower” to front-run.
Sharks can do the front-running.

[joegamma]

Nice Chart WISE AL, and thanks to all the weekend boardies!
here are some ratios I am playing with ,
not Makers and Takers but rather Takers and Fakers oops, (the financial and bankers sectors)....looks like the Takers (Trans and IYT) tend to be last to arrive to the rally, and when XLF weakens versus Takers, time to not get long/hedge portfolio/protect ones core holdings blahblah, will have another chart soon...