02/16/2013 Weekend Update

[joegamma]

bigger charts... warns of no upside in SP when rate of change turns negative...ie the takers IYT rally vs the Fakers XLF

[joegamma]

Here is some longer term views, can't seem to verify if ratio of xlf to iyt ROC is predictive or coincident, here it is back to 2005 in daily (renko affects calendar...), using roc-50

At first I was trying to check how rich the IWM (bennie's measure of US wealth) was to SPY, see PPO against 121 dma (1,x,1) and its been more frothy in the past but certainly aint cheap here

[joegamma]

LTerm needs further study...banksters vs trannie back 1999...maybe simple suggestion is ALL_in above 55 week ma, out when roc goes negative, but when to get back in?
seems to only imply correction when faker/taker ratio ROC [img]first[/img] cross negative (will we see 1450 area soon?) ...just for info/curiosity...

[joegamma]

and maybe trannies are just overdone uphere (making ROC of faker-taker more negative sooner?) here is iyt daily

[joegamma]

Tuesday morning check euroyen (lower high, slight lower low near 123.30?),http://www.reuters.com/finance/currenci ... stCurr=JPY
then watch how nervous the XLF longs are around 17.70, looks like low volume space down to 17.40ish ...hard to expect iwm rally to continue with weak fins (but anythings possible these days...)

[uempel]

Two possible scenarios for the next few weeks, check out this SPX/Gold chart. First green scenario is bullish equities and further weakness in gold/treasuries, blue second scenario is sideways move/decline equities and sideways move/strength in gold/treasuries. Medium term/long term both scenarios are bullish equities and bearish for gold/treasuries.

By the way, this is one of my most cherished charts

[KeiZai]

Hi people

dollar index seasonal study

Euro index : simple zig-zag idea is dead, likely double is in cards

euro-bucky

Eurostoxx (bullish case - abc)

ES : looks like (finally) next week we can see some volatility

NG : watching possible 2 bounce areas (bullish interpretation, bearish one have a long way down)

SBUX : not looking good

[Royal Flush]

SKEW update.

SKEW reached the thin air this week and is at peaking levels.
The pop this week is interesting in so far as it suggests risk insurance was bid even though the SPX didn't do much.

Based on prior experience, it is probable we shall see a correction warning (weekly close below moving average) issue this coming week though it could slip to next.
While it is possible an actual correction could start this week, the signal (if it is not a dud) usually arrives before the correction gets going.
So, I would say the current state of play on SKEW kinda fits what Cobra is suggesting in his evil plan timing wise (a little down, then retest high, then correction).

SKEW 021513.jpg

Thanks for posting the update on SKEW weekly Mr. Bachnut. Do you consider an intraweek cross a signal or does Mr. BachNut wait for end of week for confirmation?

[Al_Dente]

PAGING SEASONALITY FOLKS:
“Seasonal Patterns In Stock Markets: 319 Years Of Evidence “
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1183461 ... view&ifp=0



Little known factoid: U can vote for snake on Sundays AND holidays
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/

[ClarkW]

Will trendline provide support for $GOLD?

[PanamaJack]

Remember to vote for the snake! Plenty of time this weekend!
He-s been plenty of help especially with shorts on Gold over the past week or so.

PanamaJack

PAGING SEASONALITY FOLKS:
“Seasonal Patterns In Stock Markets: 319 Years Of Evidence “
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1183461 ... view&ifp=0



Little known factoid: U can vote for snake on Sundays AND holidays
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/

[ClarkW]

$GOLD Weekly. Playing with curved lines for support. Notice ChiOsc, this is weekly so the signal for be as far as a couple months from now...

[ClarkW]

$GOLD priced in Swiss Franc's. Possible Dome? Dome experts, what are your thoughts?

[joegamma]

Thanks Keizai for $ seasonals...think these pairs are going to impact stocks this week ?

[BullBear52x]

$GOLD Weekly. Playing with curved lines for support. Notice ChiOsc, this is weekly so the signal for be as far as a couple months from now...

$GOLD will depend on how Dollar play out, got negative D on UUP, but dollars always got way to surprise people, here my historic GLD support, oversold but it's like catching a falling knife.

[BullBear52x]

KeiZai, are you doing anything with /NG? looks like a good short to me.

UNG looks like it will fall off to no man's land. I'll want to see a break out from this down slope before thinking about it again.

[BullBear52x]

$CCI/CBR indext, not a commodities bulls friendly . let see how the no more currency war play out.

I was planning on currency war long ago, when G20 think it's bad it's probably bad, Germany feeling a pain now.

[BullBear52x]

Energy finally show some crack, got a sell on it last Friday.

This is what make me think the energy is the last tell tale.

[BullBear52x]

One more, DBV here, a turn down will be negative for the market. daily looks toppy MACD histo still negative, reversal candles.....but the pricing action still strong bears need to see price trade back down below 26.85ish...have a good long weekend and make lot of money in the week to come bulls or bears, I know most are traders here

[Al_Dente]

$GOLD priced in Swiss Franc's. Possible Dome? Dome experts, what are your thoughts?

Clark
Could u explain the thinking in pricing gold in swiss francs? Uempel prices it in $DAX, you in $XSF. Dang, I don’t understand either one... thx

ps: I’m reading lots of gold-bug chatter on the net about dip-buying here, and bottom fishing (NOT me; I have to be late).
Here is last week’s short interest report (it is ALWAYS stale). Note the 300% increase in NUGT shorts: they were right this time,
but such high short-interest (3 million shares, plus more recently) should produce some sizeable NUGT squeezes going forward…
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... tml#shortD

pps: Whales are reportedly dumping gold. Filings show that George Soros, Julian Robertson and Pimco sold gold during Q4.
But Bill Gross (Pimco) was seen on 1/28/13 recommending GLD for 2013 portfolios.

Our favorite $BPGDM still says “wait”....and cobra’s fave GDX:GLD ratio says “wait”... but both can absorb bounces...