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03/02/2013 Weekend Update
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
yes and no--jademann wrote:Does it make sense to only consider technical charts and not to also consider the real world fundermental effects such as the sequestration failure this weekend?
no for people getting going in TA etc. It cannot be stressed enough that trading is tough--you want the most simple model possible. and the fundi effects simply are not able to be factored by most people. the really hard part to get is (1) it's not the news--it's the reaction to the news. (2) even more it's how much that news has been tossed around prior to it's event horizon. (3) it's the news people are not looking at that is the issue. the basic idea behind TA is that all news is factored in real time--yes here and there there are wild moments. but that is why they make discipline. this is because the number of unusual events is fairly small--figure 5-10%. they often just look exciting--and people fixate on that emotional factor. this gets you cognitive dissonance not only between two concepts--but between two concepts that operate and are defined on different levels and in different ways (imaging numbers for price actin and words for fundis sort of idea).
yes for guys who are into it as a hobby or for sleazy entertainment (car chase movies) i spent 20 years speed reading 4-10 newspapers a day. so it's like this huge story that has references back to say the crusades or before that--since events in the past often create a context for many. that said--the math has been worked out for attractors (eg history is created by an event in the future).
nobody asked me--but my opinion is that the best way to use news is to find out what people are talking about and fade it. the sequester period was sold into a bit--and then we went more or less up into it. if you start seeing people discussing things generally this is messing it up. and this idea extends to patterns in the market--if for example you see an index head and shoulders pattern being tossed about--often that pattern will fail. on individual stocks that is not as exact--but often about the time people are discussing. take aapl i followed that moderately closely the news was extremely positive going into iphone5. and the stock was up hopelessly over extended. i counted close to 100 positive headlines on cnn over a period of 3 weeks. of the 50 major dudes following the stock only 2 were negative.
again this is only my opinion--but the hardest part of trading is taking a position esp a leveraged position--less is more--fewer indicators--less news--less noise--deep breathing calm focused intent. your mind can be like a moving van (lots of data and information) like a lambo (small fast and responsive). put me down for the news is for fun--and charts with price and at most 1-2 indicators (one being the 20 emas) in 5 time frames in one or two ideas (equities) is the best. while i get what you are saying there is nothing more real than price action to me--the rest is more reel (all a movie in people's heads).
good luck in your trading
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
mistake--was trying to say yes it makes sense to ignore the news and only use the charts for people getting into trading and establishing their style. no for people who are very established traders or who see the "news" as a story which has nothing to do with trading. sort of obvious but i messed up the response so . . .
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
taggard thanks for taking time to reply.
We will have to see on monday how much people were expecting this or not.
Its just that now we know for sure that we are going the way of sequestration I thought that the markets might start to price in the effects of this on economic growth 6 months from now..
We will have to see on monday how much people were expecting this or not.
Its just that now we know for sure that we are going the way of sequestration I thought that the markets might start to price in the effects of this on economic growth 6 months from now..
My comments were dictated to me by homie the clown
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
GOOD QUESTION. Better to trade on free realtime data unless your trading time horizon is very long!jademann wrote:Does it make sense to only consider technical charts and not to also consider the real world fundermental effects such as the sequestration failure this weekend?
-if you and I see it the headlines, the big guns have already positioned for it.
-cannot backtest changes in economic expectations it except for very long term trades
-cannot get realtime data to act on, try paging through this board Trader Lounge summary pages, look over to right column "Views", when it gets above 6100+, that gives realtime data that market will pause a few days after a run, or it will reverse, or it will breakout after consolidation---this is free realtime data that hints that s/t trend is changing than can help....
assuming some cuts actually do go through, yes....
-the effects on consumer won't immediately show up, for this month some middle class still buying cars despite the payroll tax hike Jan 1 and there has not been a huge surge in initial claims either.
Higher gasoline prices SHOULD be crimping spending too, but so far its only shown up at walmart..
-look at the retail trader survey from cobra at top of page, many got out of longs implying that beta chasing portfolio managers will be forced to buy soon if market does not go down in next few weeks
-institutions probably have been "distributing" (closing longs) as we rally, also ask cobra to re- post re sentimenttrader chart on hedging longs (think I saw early last week, can't find it now...)
and also last weeks selling right at the highs, some big guns were probably unloading...
I own puts but expect another short squeeze higher.
if you find any real current econ data that has not been priced in yet, please share!
GL
<;)
"It requires, obviously, some luck and some good policy."
"It requires, obviously, some luck and some good policy."
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
If the markets dont work properly and based on the facts and the new news then people will stop paying attention to them and just go to the local casino where the odds are better. The odds are actually worse at the stock market because some get insider tips imho.. zero sum market etc..
I see the FED took the POMO page down all day..
I see the FED took the POMO page down all day..
Last edited by jademann on Sat Mar 02, 2013 8:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
My comments were dictated to me by homie the clown
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
Jademann Re POMO, my fuzzy memory is 1 bln Monday, maybe1.5 or 2bln Tue,?possibly ? 3 bln Wed or Thurs? but overall I vaguely recall less was scheduled/ or smaller amounts per day? this week than had been last few weeks....
They might have taken their page down to adjust their expected purchasing amounts, may not be at all related to sequester.
markets DO work, brokers continue to make money
as for rigged marts....i don't believe the wise and profitable traders are doing that whining! Lousy traders find it Easy to blame something outside themselves...
best for newbies like you and me to learn how to learn from some brilliant traders that participate on this board, like (not in any order) Taggard, Bach, Uemple, Tgirl, Al, Bullbear, Keizai,Nightlyhawk, Harapa....etc, that share what works for them. and of course The KING SNAKE (vote here, often! http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859
like taggard hints at, learn how separate what we feel think want from what price action is telling us....some traders are dilligent about journaling why they are putting on a trade..after writing it down it gets harder to flipflop without some justified price action...
Some recent fundamentals not in the headlines might become the statements by Dallas fed Fisher re [sic] "fed may float in ideal that bond purchases could begin to be scaled back in the hopes of not letting stock market get overheated"....or something like that, this called "moral suasion" by fed-they do not telegraph l/t policy changes when visiting capitol hill but rather just let ideas slip out sideways....GL
They might have taken their page down to adjust their expected purchasing amounts, may not be at all related to sequester.
markets DO work, brokers continue to make money
as for rigged marts....i don't believe the wise and profitable traders are doing that whining! Lousy traders find it Easy to blame something outside themselves...
best for newbies like you and me to learn how to learn from some brilliant traders that participate on this board, like (not in any order) Taggard, Bach, Uemple, Tgirl, Al, Bullbear, Keizai,Nightlyhawk, Harapa....etc, that share what works for them. and of course The KING SNAKE (vote here, often! http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859
like taggard hints at, learn how separate what we feel think want from what price action is telling us....some traders are dilligent about journaling why they are putting on a trade..after writing it down it gets harder to flipflop without some justified price action...
Some recent fundamentals not in the headlines might become the statements by Dallas fed Fisher re [sic] "fed may float in ideal that bond purchases could begin to be scaled back in the hopes of not letting stock market get overheated"....or something like that, this called "moral suasion" by fed-they do not telegraph l/t policy changes when visiting capitol hill but rather just let ideas slip out sideways....GL
<;)
"It requires, obviously, some luck and some good policy."
"It requires, obviously, some luck and some good policy."
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
SPX 1575 is coming based on the inverted h&s forming. Then load up on inverse etf's.
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
Want to know the next direction of market turn? Forget everything else just watch VIXies 
.
Following two charts are presented to illustrate how accurate VIXies are in predicting direction of SPY (even after major news breaks).
Charts posted especially for "jademann and geogamma" 
.Following two charts are presented to illustrate how accurate VIXies are in predicting direction of SPY (even after major news breaks).
Charts posted especially for "jademann and geogamma"
- Attachments
-
Above is provided for informational purposes only and shouldn't be considered an investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
Harapa,
Thanks for the charts. they look good but I still dont know what you mean without
1. what the axis are plotting ....... and/or
2. a few words to explain whether I should buy hold or sell according to whether I see green red or crossover.
This comment applies to the most of the charts posted here unfortunately.. and even if you post it once that doesnt mean we all know what it means going forward..
harapa I reread your post about how VIX determines direction .. Friday VXX was green yet the markets up!
Thanks for the charts. they look good but I still dont know what you mean without
1. what the axis are plotting ....... and/or
2. a few words to explain whether I should buy hold or sell according to whether I see green red or crossover.
This comment applies to the most of the charts posted here unfortunately.. and even if you post it once that doesnt mean we all know what it means going forward..
harapa I reread your post about how VIX determines direction .. Friday VXX was green yet the markets up!
My comments were dictated to me by homie the clown
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
assuming some cuts actually do go through, yes....
please understand just trying to make a point not trying to be too pushy.
take the above one idea--the assumption appears to be "if cuts go though this not not for the economy and this is an issue in terms of equity prices". first what if the economy appearing to be at risk causes more liquidity to be printed? then it could be good. or it could be just at face value (eg it's bad to have less money spent). or it could be "since someone finally took action maybe this is the beginning of the usa not going broke". (positive response) or is the point totally valid that we have a problem due to the cuts--but the cash flows going into the market happen to be higher due to "suddenly perceived" danger of holding bonds which happens to be forcing equities up at the same time people are buying puts due to the obvious problems with the lower gov spending.
next time frames--say i wake up monday and look at the screens and stuff is down--on what appears to be a delayed reaction to the sequester. then if i am trading 5 min i am with the trend short. or if i am swing maybe i am looking long.
when we see things they certainly exist in some absolute way--but (and this is a key distinction) the meaning to ourselves and the markets is relative. We attribute the meaning to this and that. amusingly we often attribute meaning to things we know little about--few traders have looked into stuff like gdp figures--just to make it simple if the inflation factored is wrong--the entire figure is wrong. or say you hear "spx profits are up" and that means 8 companies are 90% of this gain and of these 4 of them are financial entities which survived ugly derivative positions due to gov intervention. or say climate change which 20 years ago was disbelieved by everyone and is now even admitted by the wall street journal.
so several problems--
1. is the story or figure accurate? (not that easy to figure out often)
2. if it is accurate is it factored already?
3. if it is factored short term is there a different longer term factor to consider.
4. do i actually understand this in even a close to objective way or am i confused by my own beliefs.
5. what is the correct time frame and action to be taken if points 1-4 are covered (which sadly in my case is about never)
6. is the story run over by something else (eg cash flows and so on)
If the markets dont work properly and based on the facts and the new news then people will stop paying attention to them and just go to the local casino where the odds are better. The odds are actually worse at the stock market because some get insider tips imho..
what is work properly? and what does people stop paying attention mean? again not an attack but consider the following idea--a huge amount of money since the 1980 has gone into the markets for retirement. this means the most people do the best when the markets go up. if the powers that be increase liquidity most people believe since the nominal price of stocks is higher--that they are doing better. hence in a democracy if given a chance to vote most people would likely vote for the markets not to work properly--assuming working properly means--rewarding decent businesses and trashing the bad ones (as in the strongest survive idea--clearly often not true). so it depends on what you mean--it's free money one way (great odds) and mostly people do that until it caves--and then blame the markets for being corrupt when in fact they just finally factored all the insanity of the last (as an example) 50 years.
none of this in any way is meant as an attack or negative position.
what i am trying to bring up on this board is that most of what we are doing is in our head. TA makes it amazingly simple to see that even a simple chart can be seen from a myriad of perceptual angles. where it gets major matrix (the movie) is that it is possible for two of these angles to be diametrically opposed and for them to both work or fail--or of course for one or the other to work while the other fails. the chart is the same--what's different is the individual angle of perception. Note very very key idea--this is not "everything is relative" since the chart is absolute--eg the stock sold during that time frame for that price--the issue is what is the meaning of that sale in that time at that price.
this is why cobra's intra day stuff is so much fun--look how simple it is--notice how consistent. there is generally the least thinking going on. what is of value is not cobra's calls or the exact method of what he is doing--it's the idea behind the method. thinking is very tricky stuff--less is often more. information is the same--often we need less information to make better choices.
then comes fear uncertainty and so on--and many times people think or are told--dude if you just scope it totally then you will do the right thing--not true all the time period. in my case often not true. the more i consider a trade usually the worse i do. consider this--your conscious mind is like a small dingy on the ocean of the unconscious. we are mostly unaware of 95% or more of what is going on in and around our bodies. people usually mistake their current mental position as absolute and act accordingly--but i assure you even if you are totally sincere and hard working (sometimes esp in these cases) on of the elements in 1-4 above will be an issue that is not factored.
please understand just trying to make a point not trying to be too pushy.
take the above one idea--the assumption appears to be "if cuts go though this not not for the economy and this is an issue in terms of equity prices". first what if the economy appearing to be at risk causes more liquidity to be printed? then it could be good. or it could be just at face value (eg it's bad to have less money spent). or it could be "since someone finally took action maybe this is the beginning of the usa not going broke". (positive response) or is the point totally valid that we have a problem due to the cuts--but the cash flows going into the market happen to be higher due to "suddenly perceived" danger of holding bonds which happens to be forcing equities up at the same time people are buying puts due to the obvious problems with the lower gov spending.
next time frames--say i wake up monday and look at the screens and stuff is down--on what appears to be a delayed reaction to the sequester. then if i am trading 5 min i am with the trend short. or if i am swing maybe i am looking long.
when we see things they certainly exist in some absolute way--but (and this is a key distinction) the meaning to ourselves and the markets is relative. We attribute the meaning to this and that. amusingly we often attribute meaning to things we know little about--few traders have looked into stuff like gdp figures--just to make it simple if the inflation factored is wrong--the entire figure is wrong. or say you hear "spx profits are up" and that means 8 companies are 90% of this gain and of these 4 of them are financial entities which survived ugly derivative positions due to gov intervention. or say climate change which 20 years ago was disbelieved by everyone and is now even admitted by the wall street journal.
so several problems--
1. is the story or figure accurate? (not that easy to figure out often)
2. if it is accurate is it factored already?
3. if it is factored short term is there a different longer term factor to consider.
4. do i actually understand this in even a close to objective way or am i confused by my own beliefs.
5. what is the correct time frame and action to be taken if points 1-4 are covered (which sadly in my case is about never)
6. is the story run over by something else (eg cash flows and so on)
If the markets dont work properly and based on the facts and the new news then people will stop paying attention to them and just go to the local casino where the odds are better. The odds are actually worse at the stock market because some get insider tips imho..
what is work properly? and what does people stop paying attention mean? again not an attack but consider the following idea--a huge amount of money since the 1980 has gone into the markets for retirement. this means the most people do the best when the markets go up. if the powers that be increase liquidity most people believe since the nominal price of stocks is higher--that they are doing better. hence in a democracy if given a chance to vote most people would likely vote for the markets not to work properly--assuming working properly means--rewarding decent businesses and trashing the bad ones (as in the strongest survive idea--clearly often not true). so it depends on what you mean--it's free money one way (great odds) and mostly people do that until it caves--and then blame the markets for being corrupt when in fact they just finally factored all the insanity of the last (as an example) 50 years.
none of this in any way is meant as an attack or negative position.
what i am trying to bring up on this board is that most of what we are doing is in our head. TA makes it amazingly simple to see that even a simple chart can be seen from a myriad of perceptual angles. where it gets major matrix (the movie) is that it is possible for two of these angles to be diametrically opposed and for them to both work or fail--or of course for one or the other to work while the other fails. the chart is the same--what's different is the individual angle of perception. Note very very key idea--this is not "everything is relative" since the chart is absolute--eg the stock sold during that time frame for that price--the issue is what is the meaning of that sale in that time at that price.
this is why cobra's intra day stuff is so much fun--look how simple it is--notice how consistent. there is generally the least thinking going on. what is of value is not cobra's calls or the exact method of what he is doing--it's the idea behind the method. thinking is very tricky stuff--less is often more. information is the same--often we need less information to make better choices.
then comes fear uncertainty and so on--and many times people think or are told--dude if you just scope it totally then you will do the right thing--not true all the time period. in my case often not true. the more i consider a trade usually the worse i do. consider this--your conscious mind is like a small dingy on the ocean of the unconscious. we are mostly unaware of 95% or more of what is going on in and around our bodies. people usually mistake their current mental position as absolute and act accordingly--but i assure you even if you are totally sincere and hard working (sometimes esp in these cases) on of the elements in 1-4 above will be an issue that is not factored.
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
My code: Green histo-SPY bullish, red histo-SPY bearish.jademann wrote:Harapa,
Thanks for the charts. they look good but I still dont know what you mean without
1. what the axis are plotting ....... and/or
2. a few words to explain whether I should buy hold or sell according to whether I see green red or crossover.
This comment applies to the most of the charts posted here unfortunately.. and even if you post it once that doesnt mean we all know what it means going forward..
harapa I reread your post about how VIX determines direction .. Friday VXX was green yet the markets up!
There are two reasons people do not share the details, either the setup is "work in progress" or investigator doesn't want to share the details.
Regarding FRI "VXX up market up", actually my trading setup using VIXies shorted SPY and bought VXX EOD Thursday and is still in this mode. So it depends how you play the game (I am a swing trader and not a scalper
)Above is provided for informational purposes only and shouldn't be considered an investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
Amenkenttown wrote:SPX 1575 is coming based on the inverted h&s forming. Then load up on inverse etf's.
Above is provided for informational purposes only and shouldn't be considered an investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
no one knows how asian and european stock markets will react sunday evening and what expectations are already built in, and the currency pairs are another wildcard.jademann wrote:Does it make sense to only consider technical charts and not to also consider the real world fundermental effects such as the sequestration failure this weekend?
I read this summary http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/s ... Page3.html and wonder if market participants just continue to believe something will change by April 1...
<;)
"It requires, obviously, some luck and some good policy."
"It requires, obviously, some luck and some good policy."
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BullBear52x
- Posts: 32049
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
We should took a closer look at $CPC also, right now we got $CPC > 1 and also above mid BB(21) this is bearish, $VIX is also above mid BB(21), these are bearish sign until $CPC is > 1.2 then I'll say enough is enough, I will buy that panic then.
This is a dailychart, to show buy and sell when all 3 conditions are met if using only $VIX and $CPC. since Stockcharts.com provide EOD only data for $CPC, so it's good out look for not so fast speed traders.
The 3 conditions for bullish out look are:
1. $CPC < 1
2. $CPC < mid BB(21)
3. $VIX < mid BB(21)
we got the opposite to the above for now, so I'll see it as bearish per put and call ratio. not saying that the option king are better than the bond king just some thing to look at. I use inverted ratio here for easiness to the eyes.
Here is from the bond king, they are buying TLT now.
This is a dailychart, to show buy and sell when all 3 conditions are met if using only $VIX and $CPC. since Stockcharts.com provide EOD only data for $CPC, so it's good out look for not so fast speed traders.
The 3 conditions for bullish out look are:
1. $CPC < 1
2. $CPC < mid BB(21)
3. $VIX < mid BB(21)
we got the opposite to the above for now, so I'll see it as bearish per put and call ratio. not saying that the option king are better than the bond king just some thing to look at. I use inverted ratio here for easiness to the eyes.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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BullBear52x
- Posts: 32049
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
Dr. Copper is looking at 61.8%?
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My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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BullBear52x
- Posts: 32049
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
$CCI is not looking so healthy here, bad for commodities.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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BullBear52x
- Posts: 32049
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
King green back, dollars got bearish stick sandwich on last Thursday, instead of a pull back we got something looks like a run away gap in the making.
$USD and UUP
$USD and UUP
- Attachments
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My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
taggard agreed about the intra day stuff. Problem is I am not willing to take a large position on something like that unless I have a clear medium term view as well.
My comments were dictated to me by homie the clown
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
This is a very interesting question and one I've thought about often as refers to this board— really glad you asked it during weekend rather than during workday.jademann wrote:Does it make sense to only consider technical charts and not to also consider the real world fundermental effects such as the sequestration failure this weekend?
Here's my simple take: News is TA's kryptonite.
The algos hunt headlines and so do I.
The larger issue, for me, is news vs. TA for THIS BOARD in particular. This is my favorite board and the people here are great. However, I rarely, if ever, post TA on this board. I don't post that stuff here for the same reason I don't go run patterns with Tom Brady and the Patriots during training camp: OUT OF MY LEAUGE. (I mean seriously, what am I going to do, tell Al or Uempel that XYZ stock is outside its BB? Pull-ease.)
I can't do what these guys can do. But I can do other things. Plus, again, I really like the people.
Nevertheless, Cobra started this board for TA. He "IS" TA. Although it's a very small thing, his first post every morning (if memory serves), used to read, "Keep posts to TA only." Now the first post every morning reads to "keep posts to trading related only".
Cobra seems to offer quite a bit of latitude as long as people don't fight— this is why you never see him write, "Hey, I said trade related ONLY. Stop posting links to music videos!"
Ultimately, I'm happy to hear about anything that might move markets— sometimes TA rules the roost, sometimes the headlines are in complete control. Often times, a mix of both is at work. Doesn't matter to me, the money all spends the same.
GL and have a great weekend
Last edited by Xian on Sun Mar 03, 2013 3:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: 03/02/2013 Weekend Update
And speaking of OT stuff, Happy 100 yr B-Day to the women's suffrage movement. 
IF you have time take a peek at these images— Susan B. Anthony being beaten by a group men for attempting to vote.... And the propaganda that informs us that the only women who actually want to vote are ugly spinsters who wish to get their hands on "the house that man built!"
http://www.nationalmemo.com/looking-bac ... uffrage/4/
IF you have time take a peek at these images— Susan B. Anthony being beaten by a group men for attempting to vote.... And the propaganda that informs us that the only women who actually want to vote are ugly spinsters who wish to get their hands on "the house that man built!"
http://www.nationalmemo.com/looking-bac ... uffrage/4/