03/05/2013 Live Update

[ClarkW]

The Myth That High Gas Prices Leads to Recessions

Point #1: There has been virtually no inflation with regards to gas prices as measured by the Dow Jones over the last 50 years. This can be ascertained with simple math.

In 1950, gas prices were around $0.26/gallon. The current national average gas price is $3.70. That's a multiple of 14.23 times. Gas is 14 times higher than in 1950.

In 1950, the Dow traded around 1041. The current Dow is at 14,250. That's a multiple of 13.68, which is just fractionally less than the growth rate of the gas price. The Dow is about 14 times higher than in 1950.

In reality, there is a positive correlation between gas prices and the US stock market.

Point #2: Why are the two positively correlated? First, a falling dollar will lift all assets and commodities, including gas and the Dow, but more than that, gas prices are determined by supply and demand. If the US economy is slumping, the stock market will fall and gas prices will fall. One does not lead the other, they are simply reacting to a slow down in demand. Further, when gas is in high demand because the economy is strong, the price of gas will rise.

Conclusion: Anyone who points to gas prices as indicative of a coming recession don't understand the economics of what drives the price and have ignored the fact that gasoline is positively correlated with the Dow. Therefore, gas prices should not be used as an economic benchmark or a market indicator.

This message was brought to you by the friendly folks at the Petroleum Institute.

[Al_Dente]

Hey McEnroe: note the pissant GDX cannot even hold a bounce for ONE SINGLE day

[joegamma]

Wait for it....wait for it...
Before close or tomorrow morning?

Thought I'd join in on the music videos. Not an oldie but still a goodie! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMvWo6KxKeQ

Nice chart Clark!
maybe iv goes to 2% as well.....

[TraderJoe]

Hey McEnroe: note the pissant GDX cannot even hold a bounce for ONE SINGLE day

35pissant.png

ROSENBERG: Gold Is Heading To $3,000
Staying with his call.
http://www.businessinsider.com/rosenber ... 000-2013-3

[BullBear52x]

Point #1: There has been virtually no inflation with regards to gas prices as measured by the Dow Jones over the last 50 years. This can be ascertained with simple math.

How does it correlate with salaries?

more gas to work, less beers after work.

[Cobra]

the double top still is valid but if this pullback cannot make a DECISIVE new low, then bears are over, so key time.

[Harapa]

another look at some vixie....12 calls in uxy anyone?
not a recommendation...

The attachment 1305vix2hr.png is no longer available

Not untill I see some red here.
Disclosure: Long XIV, looking for an exit point

[TWT]

$SPX: If the TZZ off the Nov lows is correct I expect a shallow wave (B) pullback

[gappy]

Wait for it....wait for it...
Before close or tomorrow morning?

Thought I'd join in on the music videos. Not an oldie but still a goodie! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMvWo6KxKeQ

Different look, same tells.

uxv.png

[silversurfer]

Review and Update: 3/5 the next High
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/


Merlin agrees http://chartsedge.com

[Nrsimha]

From this morning, I'm not 100% sure it is a pBar, it is not on my other platform so it may very well be.

Welcome back Sensei.
We all missed you.

Is there still an open P-bar on SPY down to around 149.10?

[Mark]

Hello MrMiyagi, how do you setup your chart to catch the pBar? I look around my TDAmeritrade account, from chart and also from tradestation, I did not get it.

BTW, I said yesterday that today is likely the top for the up-move run. cross fingers

From this morning, I'm not 100% sure it is a pBar, it is not on my other platform so it may very well be.

Yay!! Miyagi's back!!

[Al_Dente]

Hey McEnroe: note the pissant GDX cannot even hold a bounce for ONE SINGLE day

35pissant.png

ROSENBERG: Gold Is Heading To $3,000
Staying with his call.
http://www.businessinsider.com/rosenber ... 000-2013-3

Thx joe
I love Rosie, but I’ll be late to his party
That’s ok w me
Right now I’m lost in Juarez, and it’s Eastertime too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk52XqyL ... re=related

[TraderJoe]

Hey McEnroe: note the pissant GDX cannot even hold a bounce for ONE SINGLE day

35pissant.png

ROSENBERG: Gold Is Heading To $3,000
Staying with his call.
http://www.businessinsider.com/rosenber ... 000-2013-3

Thx joe
I love Rosie, but I’ll be late to his party
That’s ok w me
Right now I’m lost in Juarez, and it’s Eastertime too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk52XqyL ... re=related

How long has he been saying this

[MrMiyagi]

Welcome back Sensei.
We all missed you.
Is there still an open P-bar on SPY down to around 149.10?

Thank you Nrsimha.

[MrMiyagi]

ps...


!!!!!!! POWER HOUR !!!!!!!

[L_T]

Hey McEnroe: note the pissant GDX cannot even hold a bounce for ONE SINGLE day

35pissant.png

The more that price drops the more I like it as a potential retirement account holding. There is still a viable business model in pulling gold out of the ground last I checked......

[Cobra]

ps...


!!!!!!! POWER HOUR !!!!!!!

[Nrsimha]

ps...


!!!!!!! POWER HOUR !!!!!!!

YYYAAAAYYYYY HE'S BACK !!!

[Al_Dente]

Hey McEnroe: note the pissant GDX cannot even hold a bounce for ONE SINGLE day

35pissant.png

ROSENBERG: Gold Is Heading To $3,000
Staying with his call.
http://www.businessinsider.com/rosenber ... 000-2013-3

Thx joe
I love Rosie, but I’ll be late to his party
That’s ok w me
Right now I’m lost in Juarez, and it’s Eastertime too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk52XqyL ... re=related

How long has he been saying this

Long time boss
He is very patient
I am not allowed to “average down”
ps did someone mention beer?