03/16/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Judging by this drop rate, the blue line support can only be a temp support, the rebound there (if lucky) would fail eventually.

[Al_Dente]

While consuming massive quantities of Irish green beer, I remembered the old saying:
“If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck ….” … well … then … u know … geese

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKM4ktLX ... re=related

duck or goose.png (237.07 KiB) Viewed 9970 times

[Al_Dente]

This “haircut” (Grand Theft Cypriots AND Russians) also applied to INSURED deposits.
We knew the ATMs had run dry, but they also froze electronic transfers.
First time all year it is good to stay glued to zerohedge updates.
Excellent summary by Harvinder Sian and Michael Michaelides of RBS:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-1 ... poker-game
“Long bunds, sell the euro, sell periphery, Spain could underperform Italy, but nobody in the periphery wins”

Also: Russia sends ships to the Mediterranean

[Unique]

Judging by this drop rate, the blue line support can only be a temp support, the rebound there (if lucky) would fail eventually.

Cobra, would that 'meaningful pullback' to be at least around the 1510 region of congested support?

[Out of Bounds]

Judging by this drop rate, the blue line support can only be a temp support, the rebound there (if lucky) would fail eventually.

Cobra, would that 'meaningful pullback' to be at least around the 1510 region of congested support?

good god Unique, I just want to make some money. I don't want to end the game.

[Richarab]

317futures.png

Wow, I missed it. Longs all hedged, but hardly any shorts

my shorts are finally above my ankles
...but still a bit drafty (if you get my drift)

[Richarab]

Will Cyprus be the butterfly of Chaos Theory for European economies?

If we look at the facts it's unlikely: Cyprus has less inhabitants than the Bronx, 1.2 million versus 1.4 million, but per capita income is nearly 30'000 $ versus 17'000 in the Bronx and 32'000 in NY.

But if we consider the crazy idea of confiscating private money - hey, that's destablilization par excellence. I can hardly believe that politicians outside of North Korea or Zimbabwe can conceive something like that.

+1 homeslice.

However, not a ton of press on Germany. Why not? They're the ones here, "Take private money from depositors or default, bitches."
It ain't like this was an idea that originated w/ Cyprus.

So, when you say, "I can hardly believe that politicians outside of North Korea or Zimbabwe can conceive something like that." Germans can. Germans can conceive of stuff like that. That's right in their wheelhouse.

Wha? Germany effing over Europe? That *hardly* ever happens.

Congrats to the shorts. Wish I was there.

"The Hun," said Winston Churchill, "is always either at your throat or at your feet."
He was right. I know, I'm married to a German woman.

Oh man, that's a divorce worthy post right there.

your secret's safe with us....

Had a fräulein lover once ... Quite hairy she was ... She of course complained the same of me...

[Unique]

Judging by this drop rate, the blue line support can only be a temp support, the rebound there (if lucky) would fail eventually.

Cobra, would that 'meaningful pullback' to be at least around the 1510 region of congested support?

good god Unique, I just want to make some money. I don't want to end the game.

Relax, short-term vs swing setup

1532.50 order still hasn't been filled, hopefully the train didn't leave me by 2 ticks :/

[Cobra]

Judging by this drop rate, the blue line support can only be a temp support, the rebound there (if lucky) would fail eventually.

Cobra, would that 'meaningful pullback' to be at least around the 1510 region of congested support?

I don't have pullback target yet, but usually the previous high at 1530.94 is the target.

[stlwater]

I'm sorry if this sounds stupid, I don't pretend to understand international finance and global economies but, if there is serious worry about the Eurozone, and with a strengthening dollar, aren't U.S. Equities going to be, at least an interim safe haven? This pull back, should get bough up, a catalyst to send the U.S. market much higher? Where is the money going to go if not $ backed securities?

[Unique]

Judging by this drop rate, the blue line support can only be a temp support, the rebound there (if lucky) would fail eventually.

Cobra, would that 'meaningful pullback' to be at least around the 1510 region of congested support?

I don't have pullback target yet, but usually the previous high at 1530.94 is the target.

Great thx

[HenryR]

I'm sorry if this sounds stupid, I don't pretend to understand international finance and global economies but, if there is serious worry about the Eurozone, and with a strengthening dollar, aren't U.S. Equities going to be, at least an interim safe haven? This pull back, should get bough up, a catalyst to send the U.S. market much higher? Where is the money going to go if not $ backed securities?

Actually, if you think they are scared and need to put money somewhere then US Treasuries is safe haven not US stocks.

[Cobra]

possible revisit of the blue line support. key time, if bears cannot make a decisive new low, then we'll finally see a meaningful rebound, which is destined to fail though (as there'll be a 2nd leg USUALLY).

[Out of Bounds]

I'm sorry if this sounds stupid, I don't pretend to understand international finance and global economies but, if there is serious worry about the Eurozone, and with a strengthening dollar, aren't U.S. Equities going to be, at least an interim safe haven? This pull back, should get bough up, a catalyst to send the U.S. market much higher? Where is the money going to go if not $ backed securities?

Not stupid at all. that money will probably go into bonds. Equities worldwide are at risk if people think their money is not safe in banks. Bank withdrawals will shrink the available capital worldwide and bring the risk of deflation. Witness that gold is only up 0.2%. There will be bank withdrawals - I guarantee you that on Monday more than a few will withdraw just under the $10k limit for cash movements without FBI notification. (dear FBI, I would never ever do that - I promise.)

The whole system relies on trust and that a government might just confiscate one's wealth shows the lie of government's true function. Cypriots officials decided to tax the small depositors in order to appease the large Russian depositors who launder their money there.
[sorry for the rant]

So, will the influx of funds affect us? Yes. The funds will probably hit bonds and you may see interest rates fall but far from being inflationary we may see deflationary effects as velocity slows - and velocity has already been slowing at an historic rate.

[Out of Bounds]

I'm sorry if this sounds stupid, I don't pretend to understand international finance and global economies but, if there is serious worry about the Eurozone, and with a strengthening dollar, aren't U.S. Equities going to be, at least an interim safe haven? This pull back, should get bough up, a catalyst to send the U.S. market much higher? Where is the money going to go if not $ backed securities?

Actually, if you think they are scared and need to put money somewhere then US Treasuries is safe haven not US stocks.

Much more succinctly than I put it.

[HenryR]

I'm sorry if this sounds stupid, I don't pretend to understand international finance and global economies but, if there is serious worry about the Eurozone, and with a strengthening dollar, aren't U.S. Equities going to be, at least an interim safe haven? This pull back, should get bough up, a catalyst to send the U.S. market much higher? Where is the money going to go if not $ backed securities?

Actually, if you think they are scared and need to put money somewhere then US Treasuries is safe haven not US stocks.

Much more succinctly than I put it.

Thanks.

/zb is up 1%+ and /zn is up 0.5%+. Looks heading into safe haven as usual.

[Out of Bounds]

I'm sorry if this sounds stupid, I don't pretend to understand international finance and global economies but, if there is serious worry about the Eurozone, and with a strengthening dollar, aren't U.S. Equities going to be, at least an interim safe haven? This pull back, should get bough up, a catalyst to send the U.S. market much higher? Where is the money going to go if not $ backed securities?

Actually, if you think they are scared and need to put money somewhere then US Treasuries is safe haven not US stocks.

Much more succinctly than I put it.

Thanks.

/zb is up 1%+ and /zn is up 0.5%+. Looks heading into safe haven as usual.

It won't matter!


This is why we have no real growth.

[Cobra]

testing blue line as expected. wait. I guess the blue line won't hold though but the key is whether bears can make a decisive new low.

[Unique]

Well this is disappointing, order still isn't filled

Come to papa 1532.5

[Out of Bounds]

Well this is disappointing, order still isn't filled

Come to papa 1532.5

I don't know why you are trying to go long when this thing could get real ugly fast. Remember that Bulls graze and Bears gobble.