04/13/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Begin with Algo from stocktiming.

Frankly, I don't know how to read it, seems a huge negative divergence, therefore the chart should be bearish.

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling Action from stocktiming shows institutions are selling into the strength. (the selling is in a steady uptrend, don't you see?)

[Cobra]

SKEW is surprisingly bullish.

[Cobra]

We all know AAII story now, which is very bullish (since we retailers are too bearish). Hey, why always we retailers are slaughtered? Don't you know when all hairs are gone, dogs would be cooked? Don't you know when all birds are gone, bow would be discarded?

[Cobra]

II still is bullish. if I remember correctly, II bullish is not bearish.

[Cobra]

Smart money covered a little bit but still heavily short. i.e. they're still seeking protection.

[Cobra]

Stock picks for the next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=887&p=126637#p126637

[ocassional observer]

Cobra, is it possible to post the Credit Suisse fear barometer?

[Cobra]

Cobra, is it possible to post the Credit Suisse fear barometer?

[Al_Dente]

Relative Strength
Find the one outlier in this particular stack

[BullBear52x]

I am still chasing CLF

[BullBear52x]

And I think it's time to shop on DBA.

[KENA]

With trend channel res. just above and channel suppport lower and factor in RSI and Stoh's it does look like the mkt pull back could be any time..Wait and see what happens.

[BullBear52x]

With trend channel res. just above and channel suppport lower and factor in RSI and Stoh's it does look like the mkt pull back could be any time..Wait and see what happens.

The attachment spx41413_zpsa14295ec.png is no longer available

The Fib fan since Nov-Dec low still going strong even if SPY lose it next week, the lower fib line still can manage to move sideways to up, until the last line broken then...maybe BBQ time for da bears, until then I will stay nimble on either side.

[Out of Bounds]

Institutional buying and selling Action from stocktiming shows institutions are selling into the strength. (the selling is in a steady uptrend, don't you see?)

I read the opposite from this chart. What am I seeing wrong?

[BullBear52x]

pretty quiet on the weekend, well, here another one.
SMH, on my sell list still but....a break out will be a buy. but before buying it see what INTC got to say. go or no go? ( Bullish bias on INTC) see my arrows of what I have in my piggy brain. GLTA

[RedKite]

First post, so there may be glitches.
Recent strength in the US markets is disguising a global distribution pattern. Look at EEM, BKF (BRIC countries), FXI (China), DAX and the UK and there are clear distribution patterns with lower highs and lower lows over the past weeks. Behind its strength the US also has a mild distribution pattern. My favourite distribution indicator is NYA50R (NYSE stocks above 50DMA). Below is a classic NYA50R distribution pattern from October 2012, and the current pattern.

NYA classic.png (14.72 KiB) Viewed 3763 times

NYA current.png (6.06 KiB) Viewed 3763 times

The notation on the classic is a bit like Elliott Wave, but without EW rules. The blue line is the 20DMA. It's rare to get a precise match with the classic, there's usually distortion. Obviously the patterns aren't a great match this time around, but it's possible to see the current version as mild distribution with a lot more bullishness involved due to QE. This interpretation is also supported by the current shape of the NYSI curve.

If we are in the distribution phase then we probably hit point D last Thursday, or at least D1, there are often two Ds. The big fall, or mark-down phase, would be from point D2 down to E. It's unlikely that a big fall would start before Opex. I've spent some time researching when big falls start and just after Opex is far more likely (like 5 to 1) than just before Opex. On this basis I have a suggested timetable for reaching point D2 and the big fall. Happily it coincides with Uempel's ellipse post from Friday, suggesting 22 April.

The timetable goes like this...
Early next week: Most of the world's markets follow their current wave pattern and fall for days. The US and Japan might not (EWJ Japan is currently parabolic). It's probably not critical what the US does early next week. But NZD currency broke its parabolic rise on Friday and it's preferable that this stays negative (a parabolic and break for NZD is sometimes a sign of imminent mark-down).
Late next week: Maybe a slight rise in the US and consolidation in world markets to signify point D2 on the NYA50R pattern.
Opex Friday or the following Monday or Tuesday: A global breakdown begins. It will be significant if EWJ Japan breaks its parabolic rise around this point. NYA50R should quickly fall below 60. As final confirmation that the real fall has begun I'd expect SPX:VIX, to fall sharply below 110. Right now it's 131. The subsequent mark-down should last a couple of weeks.

Of course the markets never follow my timetables and break my patterns more often than not. But there are some mileposts along the way for this journey and if they happen and we do get a D2-E fall it will be worth shorting. I'll be watching the mileposts myself as the chance that I've got the timetable exactly right is low, but I think a 50:50 chance that something vaguely similar occurs.

Many thanks to all the regular posters. I've learned so much from you.
I wouldn't normally post, but everybody seems a bit short of ideas this weekend, so I thought I'd at least stir things up.

[Cobra]

First post, so there may be glitches.
Recent strength in the US markets is disguising a global distribution pattern. Look at EEM, BKF (BRIC countries), FXI (China), DAX and the UK and there are clear distribution patterns with lower highs and lower lows over the past weeks. Behind its strength the US also has a mild distribution pattern. My favourite distribution indicator is NYA50R (NYSE stocks above 50DMA). Below is a classic NYA50R distribution pattern from October 2012, and the current pattern.

NYA classic.png

NYA current.png

The notation on the classic is a bit like Elliott Wave, but without EW rules. The blue line is the 20DMA. It's rare to get a precise match with the classic, there's usually distortion. Obviously the patterns aren't a great match this time around, but it's possible to see the current version as mild distribution with a lot more bullishness involved due to QE. This interpretation is also supported by the current shape of the NYSI curve.

If we are in the distribution phase then we probably hit point D last Thursday, or at least D1, there are often two Ds. The big fall, or mark-down phase, would be from point D2 down to E. It's unlikely that a big fall would start before Opex. I've spent some time researching when big falls start and just after Opex is far more likely (like 5 to 1) than just before Opex. On this basis I have a suggested timetable for reaching point D2 and the big fall. Happily it coincides with Uempel's ellipse post from Friday, suggesting 22 April.

The timetable goes like this...
Early next week: Most of the world's markets follow their current wave pattern and fall for days. The US and Japan might not (EWJ Japan is currently parabolic). It's probably not critical what the US does early next week. But NZD currency broke its parabolic rise on Friday and it's preferable that this stays negative (a parabolic and break for NZD is sometimes a sign of imminent mark-down).
Late next week: Maybe a slight rise in the US and consolidation in world markets to signify point D2 on the NYA50R pattern.
Opex Friday or the following Monday or Tuesday: A global breakdown begins. It will be significant if EWJ Japan breaks its parabolic rise around this point. NYA50R should quickly fall below 60. As final confirmation that the real fall has begun I'd expect SPX:VIX, to fall sharply below 110. Right now it's 131. The subsequent mark-down should last a couple of weeks.

Of course the markets never follow my timetables and break my patterns more often than not. But there are some mileposts along the way for this journey and if they happen and we do get a D2-E fall it will be worth shorting. I'll be watching the mileposts myself as the chance that I've got the timetable exactly right is low, but I think a 50:50 chance that something vaguely similar occurs.

Many thanks to all the regular posters. I've learned so much from you.
I wouldn't normally post, but everybody seems a bit short of ideas this weekend, so I thought I'd at least stir things up.

Thanks, welcome aboard!

[Al_Dente]

Gold Miners
$BPGDM hit 0.00 (zero) on Friday
stockcharts only has data on $BPGDM back to 2008
It hit zero only once before: Armageddon, December 2008 (see pink, top panel)
Note that GDX was at 15ish then, and that was the bottom
Gravity may pull it back down there eventually…. but bounces should intervene somewhere here……
The chart pattern shows a bullish falling wedge……but bounces are very fickle during vicious declines… and falling on a knife is a treacherous sport…
Also note “volume by price” (orange box) to the left side of price. There is no volume down here. hmmmmm…
THIS IS A WEEKLY CHART

Perhaps the $GOLD large speculators expect a bounce too, as the COT is holding a bit of a higher low instead of crashing.

Here’s the daily
Four items may be helpful to the bounce theory:
1) inverted dollar is starting to cooperate (top panel)
2) slight bit of bull divergence in momentum…
3) the GDX/GLD ratio keeps banging against a bottom
4) volume pattern has told of the previous bounces in the past

[Out of Bounds]

Semis look weak - failed to make a higher high.

Forgot a green circle in late November

And semis have failed to indicate a buy on SPY for quite some time.