04/22/2013 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Small gap up above the Friday's high, so not sure if the gap will be filled or not.

The Global ES looks like a breakout then consolidation so it's bullish biased as long as bulls can hold the blue line.

[Cobra]

weekly stock picks are here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=894&p=127742#p127742

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/04 ... ay-update/

[gappy]

Hightower morning blurb. GLTA.

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silv.PNG

[gappy]

Couple of private equity issues.

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kkr.png

[TWT]

I rule out a major reversal, instead I maintain the scenario of a retracement of the advance from the November lows.

As I discussed last Friday the major reasons that suggest that price has not established a major top are:

1. The up leg from the November lows has unfolded a corrective 7-wave structure ===> A corrective EWP cannot establish a major Top.

2. The current pullback is also unfolding a corrective pattern ===> The intermediate trend remains up.

3. Retails investors are extremely bearish (I have never seen a major top with an extremely low AAII Bull ratio)

Regarding the potential target, at the moment, since we are in the initial stage of a corrective pattern I can only say that price should establish a bottom in the range 1485 – 200 dma (which today stands at 1453)

Once a lower high is in place the next down leg should aim at the 0.382 R = 1500, where probably a large rebound will take place. If bears maintain the sequence of lower high/lows then the following down leg will reach the target box.

Therefore I reiterate that the above “road map” looks very probable as long as the bounce, which began last Friday, establishes a lower high.

Regarding the long-term count I maintain the Triple Zig Zag wave (X) scenario. As I have discussed in previous weekly updates since the assumed wave (Z), which began at the November 2012 low is not impulsive I am suggesting that it should unfold an Ending Diagonal, if this is the case on April 11 price has completed the wave (I)

Lets move on to the current price action.

It is reasonable to expect that the rebound from last Thursday lod to reach the target box delimited between the 20 dma = 1564 and the 0,618 retracement = 1574

If it tops at the 20 dma the 1x1 extension target for the following down leg would take us to the 0.382 retracement of the advance from the November lows at 1500.

EW wise price would be unfolding a Zig Zag therefore if lower prices were in the cards probably this initial Zig Zag would morph into a Double Zig Zag

[TWT]

OIL: Follow up of the Triangle Wave (B) Option

Last summer I posted the scenario of a potential Triangle.

So far this idea is on track if the wave (D) was established on April 1 also with a Triangle

The assumed wave (E) of the large triangle could be unfolding a Double Zig Zag, hence now price should be rebounding with the wave (X) that could top at the 10 dma from where it would begin the second Zig Zag down.

[ClarkW]

I rule out a major reversal, instead I maintain the scenario of a retracement of the advance from the November lows.

As I discussed last Friday the major reasons that suggest that price has not established a major top are:

1. The up leg from the November lows has unfolded a corrective 7-wave structure ===> A corrective EWP cannot establish a major Top.

2. The current pullback is also unfolding a corrective pattern ===> The intermediate trend remains up.

3. Retails investors are extremely bearish (I have never seen a major top with an extremely low AAII Bull ratio)

Regarding the potential target, at the moment, since we are in the initial stage of a corrective pattern I can only say that price should establish a bottom in the range 1485 – 200 dma (which today stands at 1453)

Once a lower high is in place the next down leg should aim at the 0.382 R = 1500, where probably a large rebound will take place. If bears maintain the sequence of lower high/lows then the following down leg will reach the target box.

Therefore I reiterate that the above “road map” looks very probable as long as the bounce, which began last Friday, establishes a lower high.

Regarding the long-term count I maintain the Triple Zig Zag wave (X) scenario. As I have discussed in previous weekly updates since the assumed wave (Z), which began at the November 2012 low is not impulsive I am suggesting that it should unfold an Ending Diagonal, if this is the case on April 11 price has completed the wave (I)

Lets move on to the current price action.

It is reasonable to expect that the rebound from last Thursday lod to reach the target box delimited between the 20 dma = 1564 and the 0,618 retracement = 1574

If it tops at the 20 dma the 1x1 extension target for the following down leg would take us to the 0.382 retracement of the advance from the November lows at 1500.

EW wise price would be unfolding a Zig Zag therefore if lower prices were in the cards probably this initial Zig Zag would morph into a Double Zig Zag

Great stuff. Thanks TWT!

[Cobra]

tinted area the ascending triangle target.

[Cobra]

members only update at 9:42 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/04 ... ay-update/

[TWT]

I rule out a major reversal, instead I maintain the scenario of a retracement of the advance from the November lows.

As I discussed last Friday the major reasons that suggest that price has not established a major top are:

1. The up leg from the November lows has unfolded a corrective 7-wave structure ===> A corrective EWP cannot establish a major Top.

2. The current pullback is also unfolding a corrective pattern ===> The intermediate trend remains up.

3. Retails investors are extremely bearish (I have never seen a major top with an extremely low AAII Bull ratio)

Regarding the potential target, at the moment, since we are in the initial stage of a corrective pattern I can only say that price should establish a bottom in the range 1485 – 200 dma (which today stands at 1453)

Once a lower high is in place the next down leg should aim at the 0.382 R = 1500, where probably a large rebound will take place. If bears maintain the sequence of lower high/lows then the following down leg will reach the target box.

Therefore I reiterate that the above “road map” looks very probable as long as the bounce, which began last Friday, establishes a lower high.

Regarding the long-term count I maintain the Triple Zig Zag wave (X) scenario. As I have discussed in previous weekly updates since the assumed wave (Z), which began at the November 2012 low is not impulsive I am suggesting that it should unfold an Ending Diagonal, if this is the case on April 11 price has completed the wave (I)

Lets move on to the current price action.

It is reasonable to expect that the rebound from last Thursday lod to reach the target box delimited between the 20 dma = 1564 and the 0,618 retracement = 1574

If it tops at the 20 dma the 1x1 extension target for the following down leg would take us to the 0.382 retracement of the advance from the November lows at 1500.

EW wise price would be unfolding a Zig Zag therefore if lower prices were in the cards probably this initial Zig Zag would morph into a Double Zig Zag

Great stuff. Thanks TWT!

You are most welcome

[KeiZai]

Hmmm interesting start...R2K still looks weak and overlapping, new low is likely there

here is one potential p-bar

old bar: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=891&p=127414#p127414

[flrtrader]

Long 1549

[Out of Bounds]

long 155.53

[Out of Bounds]

damn home sales - still holding.

[Vaamsy]

$VIX last two times was pushed back below 200dma. Now its trying hard to get back above it. Third time is a charm ?
Also VXX hit the 20EMA and bounced off. Isn't that a buy for VXX?
Possible IH&S on VXX pointing to 25-26?

[BullBear52x]

/ES

[KeiZai]

Possible wedge in DOW

[Mr. BachNut]

Neutral.

My composite trend signal is down (as of 4/15, SPX 1552.37).
My summation index signal is neutral but would flip to down for the S&P on a convincing break of last week's lows.

My orientation is now neutral to short.
At the risk of outsmarting myself, I am sticking to hit and run shorts for now.
That worked pretty well a few weeks ago, and more chop plus a retest of highs seems reasonable.
If we get a nice high in the days ahead, I'll sell it, set it and forget it until/unless my signals change.

[gappy]

gkx.png

Caldero's.