04/24/2013 Live Update

[Cobra]

triangle, the bias is a little bit on the upside now.

[shaca]

pay attention to 1,0320 of USD/CAD, if it closes above --> the rise of the bears, it would break the neck of a 2 year H&S
H&S on eur/usd with target 1,2915 if below 1,2975

[fehro]

SPX 5m .. messy ... but another triangle

[fehro]

pay attention to 1,0320 of USD/CAD, if it closes above --> the rise of the bears, it would break the neck of a 2 year H&S
H&S on eur/usd with target 1,2915 if below 1,2975

Very Long term CDN for what it's worth... possible bear flag break down

[stlwater]

pay attention to 1,0320 of USD/CAD, if it closes above --> the rise of the bears, it would break the neck of a 2 year H&S
H&S on eur/usd with target 1,2915 if below 1,2975

Very Long term CDN for what it's worth... possible bear flag break down

What would that do to oil and PMs?

[wayne0708]

Similarities between previous top and current pattern. Several doji like or narrow range bars.
If indeed a topping process expect a down move soon.

[KENA]

In addition to the index puts "FIVE" has now set up for a pull back..Could be a nice couple of points.

[1der]

Have indicator for ES 1565 /6 but not sure of time. Maybe today or tonight.

[BullBear52x]

Bears are boring me to dead. I got few hours to make some mojo

[wayne0708]

indu and nasd are in negative. About time SPX might follow by end of day

[Cobra]

still in triangle, bias is up.

[stlwater]

GDX breakout of intra-day rising wedge..

Decent bullish volume.

[BullBear52x]

/NQ and /YM are the weakest link

[1der]

Nice - Pull back to ES 1565 area could then set up a move to ES 1587/8. Action is too slow for my style, though

[essessme]

Overbought & bearish divergent tick also here

opps - edited *

[L_T]

GDX breakout of intra-day rising wedge..

Decent bullish volume.

GDX yikes!

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatcht ... 27666.html?

Deutsche Bank Downgrades Gold Miners

By Sam Mamudi

Looks like this week could be as bad for gold miners as last week: In a research note this morning, analysts at Deutsche Bank Markets Research downgraded three stocks, cutting Barrick Gold (ABX) and Kinross Gold (KGC) to Hold from Buy, and lowering their rating for Newmont Mining (NEM) to Sell from Hold. They kept Goldcorp (GG) as a Hold.

Under a $1,500/oz gold price scenario (which is 7% higher-than-current price but ~15% lower than DB’s official unchanged 2013/14 estimates), we believe NA Gold producers equity values become “scissored” between a sharply lower-than-expected gold price and still rising capex commitments/ operating costs/ cresting resource nationalism, leading to large potential shareholder dilution in 2H13. Under $1,500/oz gold price scenario, net present values decline by 21%, with larger drops to prior NPVs seen at Kinross and Newmont (given relative higher cost operations). Under an extreme $1,300/oz gold scenario NPVs fall 78%…

We re-ran our models at $1,300/oz gold price (vs $1,500/oz prior) and silver price of $20/oz ($25/oz) as a worst case scenario and were truly shocked by the outcomes. Balance challenges emerge, as cost inflation assumptions continue upward (despite assuming 3% cost inflation going forward vs 14% over previous 5 years), while production of many mines become uneconomic. Shutting down high cost mines could lead to exit and impairment costs and risk roiling government relations in developing markets which have already been strained by years of rising resource nationalism.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, the analyst slashed their price targets, lowering the target for Barrick to $22.50 a share from $40, cutting Kinross to $6 from $9, Newmont to $24 from $40 and Goldcorp to $28 from $31.

Then again, stocks seem to be faring the downgrades well: With gold prices up 2.2% today, Newmont is up 1.2%, Goldcorp is rising 2.5% and Kinross is up 3.2%. (Barrick is down 1.2%.)

I’ll simply note that in this week’s Barron’s, Andrew Bary wrote bullishly about gold miners, suggesting they could finally — finally — be worthy of investors’ consideration.

[MrMiyagi]

The 157.40$ pBar from the 17th was hit this morning.

[Al_Dente]

Inverted volatility

[stlwater]

GDX breakout of intra-day rising wedge..

Decent bullish volume.

GDX yikes!

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatcht ... 27666.html?

Deutsche Bank Downgrades Gold Miners

By Sam Mamudi

Looks like this week could be as bad for gold miners as last week: In a research note this morning, analysts at Deutsche Bank Markets Research downgraded three stocks, cutting Barrick Gold (ABX) and Kinross Gold (KGC) to Hold from Buy, and lowering their rating for Newmont Mining (NEM) to Sell from Hold. They kept Goldcorp (GG) as a Hold.

Under a $1,500/oz gold price scenario (which is 7% higher-than-current price but ~15% lower than DB’s official unchanged 2013/14 estimates), we believe NA Gold producers equity values become “scissored” between a sharply lower-than-expected gold price and still rising capex commitments/ operating costs/ cresting resource nationalism, leading to large potential shareholder dilution in 2H13. Under $1,500/oz gold price scenario, net present values decline by 21%, with larger drops to prior NPVs seen at Kinross and Newmont (given relative higher cost operations). Under an extreme $1,300/oz gold scenario NPVs fall 78%…

We re-ran our models at $1,300/oz gold price (vs $1,500/oz prior) and silver price of $20/oz ($25/oz) as a worst case scenario and were truly shocked by the outcomes. Balance challenges emerge, as cost inflation assumptions continue upward (despite assuming 3% cost inflation going forward vs 14% over previous 5 years), while production of many mines become uneconomic. Shutting down high cost mines could lead to exit and impairment costs and risk roiling government relations in developing markets which have already been strained by years of rising resource nationalism.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, the analyst slashed their price targets, lowering the target for Barrick to $22.50 a share from $40, cutting Kinross to $6 from $9, Newmont to $24 from $40 and Goldcorp to $28 from $31.

Then again, stocks seem to be faring the downgrades well: With gold prices up 2.2% today, Newmont is up 1.2%, Goldcorp is rising 2.5% and Kinross is up 3.2%. (Barrick is down 1.2%.)

I’ll simply note that in this week’s Barron’s, Andrew Bary wrote bullishly about gold miners, suggesting they could finally — finally — be worthy of investors’ consideration.

I'm playing for a relief rally.

[Cobra]

still in triangle. zzzzzzzzzz