04/27/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Start from Institutional buying and selling actions from stocktiming. Institutional sellings are in clear uptrend, as i see serious higher highs and higher low, so maybe sell in may is true.

[Cobra]

Algo from stocktiming. I don't see anything interesting.

[Cobra]

AAII and II. II still bullish.

[Cobra]

Smart money still huge short.

[Cobra]

The summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=894&p=128724#p128724

[Cobra]

Stock picks for the next week: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=903&p=128726#p128726

[stlwater]

UPDATE I have found Data irregularities (bad data) in the monthly SMH chart. I have also found bad data in HAS. Using Stockcharts.com. I'm tempted to delete this post entirely as I don't currently trust these charts... Proceed with caution if using Stockcharts.com!

SOX update... Please let me know if I have missed something significant that either points bullish or bearish.. Either way this is a very tough call right now. I didn't expect such a divergence between SOX and SMH this week (EDIT: due to the fact that I did not do due diligence and did not realize SMH is not = SOX).. SOX is currently showing that on the monthly charts there is significant disagreement about whether we break out or not. Such a breakout could be huge whenever it does come. Intel could be the leader. The simple fact is that semis are one of the few remaining sectors to have largely been ignored by the current market rally. Bargain hunters are now looking for the undervalued.. which generally means that things really worth owning have already been bid up to unattractive levels, (blue chips are now lining up to offer big dividends to hold prices).

Let's start with weekly.. Last week we got a bearish cross of the MACD, barely, which is negated by this week, barely.

Now let's look at the monthly chart..

Now let's have a look up close because I believe the decision here is a monthly one..

Let's get a bit closer and look at the daily.

and finally... the hourly.

Lastly.. a look at SMH since so much hay has been made of the "breakout." EDIT: SMH's strength as pointed out later in this thread is due to heavy weighting with a few better performing stocks, in particular Intel's recent breakout. Can Intel buoy the entire sector and/or continue to rise should the market correct? Is this the clue that May will be different this year? I just don't know. I tend to doubt it considering all the other factors weighing in on the market right now.

SMH volume this month highest in over a year.

SMH a monthly view.. shows that a pull back in SMH could be due as well thought it looks relatively minor should the current monthly pattern hold.. a blow off top may be correct (to touch the upper trendline).

(Chart removed due to known bad data)

Anyone know what's going on here with volume? Suddenly dropped off.

[Al_Dente]

Since mid February, the “Percent of Stocks Above Their 50ma” has been persistent in reminding us that there are fewer and fewer stocks participating in this historic bull run. SPY has been ignoring this internal weakness…

It’s relatively easy to breach the 50ma, it’s another thing entirely to breach the 200ma.
The “Percent of Stocks Above Their 200ma” is weakening, and should be closely monitored for breaks…

[Al_Dente]

WHALE WATCH:
George Soros buys 17.4 million shares of JCP (13G disclosure yesterday)
Bill Ackman (Pershing Square) already owns a ton of it

Hey, I’ll be darned, guess who just lined up a $1.75 billion loan to JCP
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-s ... 6.html?l=1

[gappy]

A team is only as strong as it's weakest link. The devil's in the detail.

soxx.PNG

smh.PNG

[gappy]

huidoc.png

[Al_Dente]

Yesterday’s gold COT down

Q: what does Sprott [PHYS] have that the others don’t ?
A: a tax break ???
http://etfdb.com/2010/sprott-launches-n ... -etf-phys/

All commodities, 20 years

[stlwater]

A team is only as strong as it's weakest link. The devil's in the detail.

soxx.PNG

smh.PNG

Call me a fool for making assumptions but I assumed that SMH held equal weight to the index itself. Guess not.

[tapesense]

Call me a fool for making assumptions but I assumed that SMH held equal weight to the index itself. Guess not.

SMH based on different index

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=SMH+Profile
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ecn?s=soxx

[RedKite]

Multi-month and multi-day cycles both topped and now point distinctly down. Expecting a terrible Monday and rough for the rest of the week. The only saviours would be China staying up, DAX staying up and NZ dollar staying up. But unlikely. My cycles are based mainly on NYA50R, NYSI, FXI, VDAX (DAX volatility), NYADV. I expect to be shorting furiously on Monday. Always a chance of being entirely wrong, of course, but right now this looks like a good set up for a strong down leg.

[stlwater]

Call me a fool for making assumptions but I assumed that SMH held equal weight to the index itself. Guess not.

SMH based on different index

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=SMH+Profile
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ecn?s=soxx

Yes, I see it tracks their own index.. The weightings are very different. Not sure how to read this yet. Will the Intel breakout be the tide that lifts all ships? Will it last if the market corrects? Or will Semis and materials be the lynchpin of another wave higher? Materials and manufacturing showing some signs of life. Very hard to see how the market is going to go right now. Interesting that Intel is breaking out as we head into May.

[stlwater]

Multi-month and multi-day cycles both topped and now point distinctly down. Expecting a terrible Monday and rough for the rest of the week. The only saviours would be China staying up, DAX staying up and NZ dollar staying up. But unlikely. My cycles are based mainly on NYA50R, NYSI, FXI, VDAX (DAX volatility), NYADV. I expect to be shorting furiously on Monday. Always a chance of being entirely wrong, of course, but right now this looks like a good set up for a strong down leg.

Care to post your charts?

[stlwater]

Per a request I have altered my latest ellipse and perhaps this is now more accurate.

Also I added an additional chart to my original post (SMH monthly...) It puts everything into better perspective I think.

[uempel]

Per a request I have altered my latest ellipse and perhaps this is now more accurate.

The attachment SOXa2.png is no longer available

Also I added an additional chart to my original post (SMH monthly...) It puts everything into better perspective I think.

For SOX I've got a signal A) Monday opening and a second one B) at Monday's close (resp Tuesday's opening). For SPX I've got a signal at Monday's close resp Tuesday's opening. Newbies note that these signals don't suggest an up or down, they only suggest one thing: something is going to happen

SOX

SPX

[ClarkW]

Per a request I have altered my latest ellipse and perhaps this is now more accurate.

SOXa2.png

Also I added an additional chart to my original post (SMH monthly...) It puts everything into better perspective I think.

Outstanding charts stlwater. What's the date/time (roughly) of the green ellipse ending?