“We are still in the hint-dropping phase… Take note of the language of John's [John Hilsenrath’s] missive: ‘Federal Reserve officials have mapped out a strategy for winding down an unprecedented $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program meant to spur the economy -- an effort to preserve flexibility and manage highly unpredictable market expectations. Officials say they plan to reduce the amount of bonds they buy in careful and potentially halting steps, varying their purchases as their confidence about the job market and inflation evolves. The timing on when to start is still being debated.’ "
“No one should take this to mean that a rate hike is imminent, even if markets begin anticipating it.
The "Anticipating the End of QE" trade will look something like this:
a) Strong Dollar
b) Bonds Trashed
c) Commodities Sloppy
d) Gold Schiff-ed
e) Stocks Re-Correlated
f) Vix Slightly Elevated
“…and the anticipatory environment can go on for months and months - years!
This is all unprecedented so why pretend to know?
“… the actual QE Exit is a four-step process and will play out over years, not weeks or months…:
1. Slow down of asset purchases
2. Slow down and then stop reinvestments
3. Raise short-term rates
4. Begin sell down of asset portfolios…”
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/0 ... tart-from/