05/21/2013 Live Update

[Apple]

thanks uemp

btw:
GS “…said the U.S. stock-market rally may last at least another 2 1/2 years, sending the ...SPX... up 26 percent to 2,100.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-2 ... -says.html

They are out in force pre-Ben
FOMC member Dudley is supposed to speak somewhere at 1:00 today
U kno they coordinate this shite….

this should be Dudley's speech: http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/sp ... 30521.html

[Mr. T]

"We're never going down again!!!!!"

LOL

[BullBear52x]

Counter trend level to watch.

[Nrsimha]

Sure is quiet 'round hyeah"!
Big bullish megaphone forming on VIX(bearish for SPX) plus pos. divergences
Expecting a pullback after this upleg completes who know wher at this point...

on the volatility front, "Dare to go long"

Go long volatility (UVXY)? or go long XIV ? or go long SPY?

[Cobra]

new high but it's biggest bar with volume surge, so might see pullback here first, then perhaps more up. lunch time, will be back.

[grachu]

cobra as we are doing a new high it means we still need a retest of this hight to call an intermediate top?
what could be the pullback target from this last rally from 153 on the spy ?

[BullBear52x]

Sell here and wait to see if fib 50% retracement hold.

[BullBear52x]

Sure is quiet 'round hyeah"!
Big bullish megaphone forming on VIX(bearish for SPX) plus pos. divergences
Expecting a pullback after this upleg completes who know wher at this point...

on the volatility front, "Dare to go long"

Go long volatility (UVXY)? or go long XIV ? or go long SPY?

Long UVXY or short XIV/SPY

[Al_Dente]

this should be Dudley's speech: http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/sp ... 30521.html

Hey boss thanks very much

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[L_T]

Just want you to know that we have a forum for long-term investment discussion. You're welcome there: viewforum.php?f=11

Yes I got 1 response to my question yesterday. It takes time to get something on many peoples' radar.

[BullBear52x]

Da intraday bears may or may not make profit, but they sure got 5 min. for good lunch. green line as a stop, that's how I roll

[PLUNGE]

The crux of Dudley's speech:
"An important challenge for us will be to think carefully about what combination of actions and communications will best ensure that when we do eventually judge that it is appropriate to begin normalizing policy, the initial tightening of financial market conditions is commensurate to what we desire. There is a risk is that market participants could overreact to any move in the process of normalization. Indeed, there is some risk that market participants could overreact even before normalization begins, when the pace of purchases is adjusted but the level of accommodation is still increasing month by month. Not only could such responses threaten financial stability, but also they might make it harder to calibrate monetary policy appropriately to the economic situation. We will need to think long and hard about how best to develop policy in a way that enables us to respond flexibly to a changing economic outlook, but in a way that is not disruptive to the economy.

Based on what we have learned to date at the zero bound, I believe that it will be important for us to anchor all our communication around the core principle: The path of the policy rate and the size and composition of the balance sheet over time will be driven by our unbending commitment to our dual mandate objectives of maximum sustainable employment in the context of price stability."

[BullBear52x]

On /ES first profit target is 1666.5 let the other half run with stop at 1670 if it ever going to get there.

[Apple]

New Target for XLE is $85.05.

[Al_Dente]

As per usual, VIX did not confirm another SPY hi
Last VIX low was 14 March at 11.05

[Cobra]

pullback as expected. now let's see if any h2 long.

[Cobra]

H2 long. not sure.

[Major]

The crux of Dudley's speech:
"An important challenge for us will be to think carefully about what combination of actions and communications will best ensure that when we do eventually judge that it is appropriate to begin normalizing policy, the initial tightening of financial market conditions is commensurate to what we desire. There is a risk is that market participants could overreact to any move in the process of normalization. Indeed, there is some risk that market participants could overreact even before normalization begins, when the pace of purchases is adjusted but the level of accommodation is still increasing month by month. Not only could such responses threaten financial stability, but also they might make it harder to calibrate monetary policy appropriately to the economic situation. We will need to think long and hard about how best to develop policy in a way that enables us to respond flexibly to a changing economic outlook, but in a way that is not disruptive to the economy.

Based on what we have learned to date at the zero bound, I believe that it will be important for us to anchor all our communication around the core principle: The path of the policy rate and the size and composition of the balance sheet over time will be driven by our unbending commitment to our dual mandate objectives of maximum sustainable employment in the context of price stability."

Translation:

We don't have a clue as to what we are doing or are going to do from here. But trust us … with our unbending commitment, we will take care of everything, unless our commitment bends.

[Cobra]

it was a good H2 long, but pullback should have triggered the breakeven stop loss, so may need H3 to re-entry?

[Al_Dente]

Is this now a megaphone ?
Bulkowski calls it broadening top
http://thepatternsite.com/bt.html