06/29/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Algo from stocktiming shows positive divergence plus institutional accumulation is almost more than distribution now, so maybe the market was already bottomed? For now personally I don't believe this, need see more evidences the next week.

[Cobra]

AAII and II. No comments just an update.

[Cobra]

Smart money covered a lot.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks. No breakout and no eliminations.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=965&p=135440#p135440

[Cobra]

Stock picks for the next week. Now include short watches.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=973&p=135442#p135442

[wayne0708]

Any thought on BBRY. More down I guess to the support and form double bottom then breakout of the wedge?
That would be a dream come true...

[Cobra]

Some saying the sharp sell off before the close is due to Russell 3000 re-balance. I'm not convinced, because this means it should happen June last day ever year, or some saying every quarter last day. Well, here're chars with the last trading day of the quarter highlighted. I don't see sharp sell off at all. Why is today so special?

[Cobra]

Any thought on BBRY. More down I guess to the support and form double bottom then breakout of the wedge?
That would be a dream come true...

before a decisive new low, it's hard to call. Only know the short-term trend is down.

[valry777]

hi COBRA,

can you explain about GOLD and give to us your opinion in weekend report?

is level price $1200 was bottom?

thanks.

valry777

[Cobra]

hi COBRA,

can you explain about GOLD and give to us your opinion in weekend report?

is level price $1200 was bottom?

thanks.

valry777

Check the Featured Stocks report. It's updated every Wednesday and Weekend. I've been covering 15 hot stocks/ETFs for awhile, maybe you didn't notice.

[joegamma]

Rebalance? maybe the "great rotation" myth is spinning out of control?
here is daily bond V spy, this positive correlation cannot go on forever...

Look at late fall '08, fall '09, early summer '10, fall '10, summer '11, and today.....see a theme when corr vs SPY gets above +.65?
something changes, if tlt at extremes it tended to reverse trend

....
here is a closer look that hints at uncertain longs and shorts within last thursday tail and this week's friday day range....looks like expect buying toward 10850/19 area, next stop maybe gap near 11150-70 level?

[joegamma]

re Correlation bond vs SPY what happened to SPY fall '09, fall '10, and summer '11?

Uptrend paused, tested 50 day ma, then resumed uptrend Nov '09

Fall of 2010 SPY, late NOV '10 same 'ol same 'ol test then resume up...

May 2011 Spy seems like ths year....(note the vertical rally around July 4 holiday that failed to solicit new highs)

[joegamma]

and SPY now

So if we expect correlation tlt v spy to go down, I think there are 3 likely choices.

Does SPy reverse downtrend?

Does TLT reverse?

Or does 1 trend consolidate and the other trend continue?

Any thoughts this weekend?

[joegamma]

here are some charts of 10, 20,50 dma and the ppo (10,50,1) to show X over, russel still hangin' on...

[Richarab]

and SPY now

629spynow.png

So if we expect correlation tlt v spy to go down, I think there are 3 likely choices.

Does SPy reverse downtrend?

Does TLT reverse?

Or does 1 trend consolidate and the other trend continue?

Any thoughts this weekend?

Brilliant analysis this weekend joe

[joegamma]

Does SPy reverse downtrend?

Does TLT reverse?

Or does 1 trend consolidate and the other trend continue?

Any thoughts this weekend?

Brilliant analysis this weekend joe

so brilliant, I may stand aside for a few days while I ponder all the potential possibilities since I am a bit clueless here and now....seems to be a good amount of chatter (maybe too much) about July seasonality

[Al_Dente]

NYSE margin debt declined to $377MM in May from April’s record reading of $384MM. This was the first decline on a monthly basis since last June.
http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/fac ... category=8

More on margin debt from Dougie Short:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/u ... he-SPX.php

[Al_Dente]

Improve your consistency
http://www.kirkreport.com/2013/05/18/im ... 6criL.dpbs

[xfradnex]

Daily elders. Note that I added the required closing value for the next day to make the Elder red or green (for each stock).

[xfradnex]

NYSE margin debt declined to $377MM in May from April’s record reading of $384MM. This was the first decline on a monthly basis since last June.
http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/fac ... category=8

margin 629.png

More on margin debt from Dougie Short:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/u ... he-SPX.php

Looks like the bubble could pop at any time based on Dougie's chart
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/c ... e-1980.gif
and more doom:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/is-the-u ... BT2eQ.html