7/13/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

AAII maybe too optimistic but at least the previous 2 extremes did not go wrong. Who said retailers are always wrong?

II shows nothing interesting.

[Cobra]

institutional buying and selling actions from stock timing shows Institutions are buying but the distribution isn't down much.

[Cobra]

Smart Money added more short.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks. Good week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=982&p=136632#p136632

[Cobra]

The stock picks for next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=993&p=136634#p136634

[Al_Dente]

Taper Watch:
QUARTERLY economic indicators

[Hat tip: FRB; Goldman Sachs (GS); Calculated Risk]

[wayne0708]

Taper Watch:
QUARTERLY economic indicators

713taper.png

[Hat tip: FRB; Goldman Sachs (GS); Calculated Risk]

Nice work Al!

[Al_Dente]

For those of you who follow Charles Dow’s venerable 100+ year old “Dow Theory,” here is what I’m watching for:
The Dow has not yet made a new high (despite the media pounding away at the other record highs).
Dow Theorists argue endlessly about this (so I won’t).
Cut to the chase:
If/when the Dow makes a new high, the Transports must confirm by also making a new high (I usually give TRAN a couple/few days to confirm or deny).
Messy chart, approximate only, just shows a few of the “Dow Theory” signals this year…
[Green vertical lines = bull confirmation, which remains intact until the next red non-confirmation.
Red vertical lines =non confirmation, bear, which remains intact until the next green confirmation of bull]

[Al_Dente]

APPROVED FOR NEWBIES:
Corey charts the three strongest sectors:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/charting- ... new-highs/

[Al_Dente]

Bond quarter

[xfradnex]

Some USO views- on the verge of breaking a new high. Note the pink (or Blue on one chart) linear regression lines. On most time scales a, pullback looks like it is coming.

[xfradnex]

Taper Watch:
QUARTERLY economic indicators

713taper.png

[Hat tip: FRB; Goldman Sachs (GS); Calculated Risk]

Very profession chart there DrAl.

Here is my Tapir Watch: http://suannontherun.blogspot.com/2010/ ... apers.html.

[waterbaby]

uso 12 Jul 2013 End of Day Data
Open High Low Close
37.30 37.60 37.11 37.56

uso 12 Jul 2013 Pivot Points, Fib Pivots and Camarilla
R3 38.23 Fib R3 37.91 Brk Out Long 37.83
R2 37.91 Fib R2 37.73 Short 37.69
R1 37.74 Fib R1 37.61 HL2 37.65
Pivot 37.42 Pivot 37.42 HL1 37.60
S1 37.25 Fib S1 37.24 LL1 37.52
S2 36.93 Fib S2 37.12 LL2 37.47
S3 36.76 Fib S3 36.94 Long 37.43
Brk Out Short 37.29

4.250 39.68
2.618 38.88
1.618 38.39
1.000 38.09
0.618 37.90
HIGH 37.60
0.618 37.41
0.500 37.36
0.382 37.30
LOW 37.11
0.618 36.81
1.000 36.62
1.618 36.32
2.618 35.83
4.250 35.03

[BullBear52x]

I consider next week will be easy trade for position trade. either go or no go, line in the sand is at the all time high.

Liquidity is weak and MO = sell/exhausted

[BullBear52x]

$BPSPX short term is bullish still

XIV not a sell yet per Vixies close but not there yet.

[PanamaJack]

Hope everyone is having a great weekend!
Take time to vote for the Snake.

http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859?vote=success

PanamaJack

[tsf]

Does anyone have recommendations or recommended links to help determine portfolio % allocations
between buy-and-hold vs. active management?
Thank you.

[C520]

The http://www.investing.com website shows the S&P VIX moved from 14.5 to 16.20 in the last minute of trading. I don't see that move anywhere else. I'd appreciate the observations or opinions of others. Thanks in advance for your reply!

[taggard]

Does anyone have recommendations or recommended links to help determine portfolio % allocations
between buy-and-hold vs. active management?
Thank you.

Just my opinion--but what i would suggest is that you spend 95% of your time observing--considering--defining and overall coming to grips with on every level the following. (1) your objectives and timeframes (2) what you are buying and holding. (3) what you mean by "active management". The problem with models is they rarely take into account your exact situation. Further there all sorts layered--"lack of epistemological considerations type issues". you and what you are up to are different than others and what they are up to.. Bottom line? your investment stuff is likely very important to you--take a lot of time considering what you are up to.

Second consider any funds over at least 10 years--and have a fall back if they change methodology or dudes actually managing the funds. While i only trade--my advice to others is to be xtreamly cautious about "active management" i have seen things you simply cannot believe my favorite was a dude who lost 80% of a guys capital between 2009 and late 2012. as you know the market conditions made this a very hard trade--you really needed to be in exactly the right place (this was like 30 stocks sort of thing) to lose this badly. The other side of the story was the attitude of the dude who lost the money--he figured it out but 2 years (at the most) too late.

so again this is not my kind of stuff personally but the overall problems are universal so in that sense passing it along. a rule of thumb is that most people spend more time planning a 2 week yearly vacation than understanding how their retirement accounts and the markets work. thus they work for 30-40 years and likely overall get burned. inverting this idea so getting intensive about the market for a year in the end is likely to shave the time required to bail in half. if you have bailed already--the idea actually is more important. so starting with what you have and what sort of expectations you have will likely define the model you want to use.

good luck with your portfolio % allocations stuff.

[tsf]

Thank you very much, Taggard.