07/20/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Both II and AAII are extremely bullish now, but still I don't see it necessarily means bad.

[Cobra]

USHL5 (All us stocks at 52-week highs - 52-week lows accumulated every week) is extremely high now which means lower close ahead. The only problem is hard to know if USHL5 reaches the high now or more high reading ahead. So it's difficult to time the trade based on the chart.

[Cobra]

summary of the week's stock picks. a perfect week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=993&p=137255#p137255

[Cobra]

The stock picks for next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1002&p=137257#p137257

[Neroli]

Hi, Cobra

How is the the smart money doing with their longs and shorts? Thanks!

[Al_Dente]

[Cobra]

Hi, Cobra

How is the the smart money doing with their longs and shorts? Thanks!

Smart money added more shorts.

[Neroli]

Thank you, Cobra

[Al_Dente]

Bullish Percent indicators are all bullish, with negative divergences (dotted red lines) showing that fewer stocks are participating at the highs.

Focusing only on the weekly $BPSPX, you can see that this divergence always eventually leads to a pullback.
Problem is it could take weeks to play out, as you don't know how high the BPs will go before they turn, especially when we are at record highs,
which means there is no supply up here…. no resistance up here…

Same with the “Percent of Stocks Above 50ma”

[joegamma]

RE trin discussion from Friday, Bretz Trin-5 short term indicator....(J. Favors says use 5 day sum of $trin, sell spy after drops below 4 and rises back above)


Thanks BB and AL: I wish stockcharts allowed formula modifications to sum.....Know anything else besides $one?

I can't find any way to sum in stockcharts, but here is a possibly proxy to watching the Trin5 overbought (4) and oversold (6) levels...looks to be a good warning not to add longs at that price level when ATR of trin below .8

here is past year

I have been just eye-balling KingSnake Chart (page1) http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

, then add 'em up by hand, only 5v data points but doesn not help to backtest...


and here is ATR of trin past 3 years

[joegamma]

Bullish Percent indicators are all bullish, with negative divergences (dotted red lines) showing that fewer stocks are participating at the highs.

The attachment 720bp.png is no longer available

Focusing only on the weekly $BPSPX, you can see that this divergence always eventually leads to a pullback.
Problem is it could take weeks to play out, as you don't know how high the BPs will go before they turn, especially when we are at record highs (except nasdaq), which means there is no supply up here…. no resistance up here…

The attachment 720bp monthly_png.png is no longer available

Same with the “Percent of Stocks Above 50ma”

The attachment 720percent above 50.png is no longer available

Clifford Creel tried a different ratio, "Trend Exhaustion Index", using 10day ema of new highs / advancer, with the reasoning being that near tops, there are fewer new highs but still some lagging advancers as conservation positions rotate into bluechips...

Greg Morris explored nylow:nydec as "trend explosion index"--more great bottom pickers

[Al_Dente]

The Unemployment Rate has a long way to go before it reaches Ben’s 7% / 6.5% mark for tapering.
The employment-stocks index has broken out.

The standout in my (narrow) group is Manpower MAN which gapped up yesterday on an earnings beat (net income up +66% on cost cutting).
The gap becomes support for a backtest.
Earnings Call Transcript here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1558522 ... transcript?

[joegamma]

From Tom McClellan's corner" look at Crude correlation with Dowhttp://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... crude_oil/

near month oil too high, pullback due?

[Al_Dente]

thanks joegamma

[Neroli]

From Tom McClellan's corner" look at Crude correlation with Dowhttp://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... crude_oil/

near month oil too high, pullback due?

Thanks, joegamma

[Heck]

To summarize, ST Bull, LT bear

Summation index still has room to romp:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/McSumNYSE.html

[joegamma]

Thanks Heck: have not seen any indication that this is later stages of rally, all the L/T and breadth datA I am looking at say this seems to be beginning to middle, ? lotta room to run,

waiting for NYA to make new highs.

[user13]

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... s-fine-but
- Lol funny but true

[daytradingES]

Hi, Cobra

How is the the smart money doing with their longs and shorts? Thanks!

Smart money added more shorts.

looks like a change from an extreme low = a peak in the market for first two green but then it went up to -200 area, this time it has stalled and reversed back down (perhaps meaning the peak isn't in til it bottoms (say minus 1200 or more) and starts back up?

[BullBear52x]

Hmm....It was Mission accomplishment, and now Bailing out Detroit was an enormous success million souls have been saved, REALLY? Seriously! I must be cool I can be funny.



OK I find nothing bearish on these charts, maybe QQQ is the weakest link

Complacent or flat out bullish?