10/03/2013 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

....interesting that you use (or someone who was on the board a few years ago) the closing period rather than the hi/lo...seems to reduce chop and fakes

Hmmm interesting
No, that one is all mine
I think I just used default [?] “close” then tweaked the brick size to 50-cents as SPY is so high priced
u r right, the close instead of hi/lo reduces chops
thx

TOS lets you use (Open, Hi, Low, Close)/4 as a data point which also helps smooth lines without totally ignoring sudden jerks.

freestockcharts.com allows "open,hi,low,close/x" also, but I have no renkos on free

[stlwater]

your post of 30min SPY Renko(member site) a few days was much appreciated

Hi boss here’s update SPY renko
(it doesn’t lead…..it follows……like me……..)

103spy renko.png

yes!, following is a much better plan than predicting

interesting that you use (or someone who was on the board a few years ago) the closing period rather than the hi/lo...seems to reduce chop and fakes

Me perhaps?
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=360&p=41984&hilit=+renko#p41984

[taggard]

yes!, following is a much better plan than predicting

wanted to second this--and note one thing. at the start of following market action the mental/emotional end is often really rough. way cognitive dissonance. to do this you give up a sense of outcome and in doing so "knowing what is going on". We are wired to feel very uncomfortable in this sort situation. it's interesting since often the best moments of our lives have this factor in. places where we tried something new always felt like this. I think it helps marginally to understand why we feel weird about "not knowing" but there seems to be an adjustment process--that at least for me took some time. and is still not totally in place.

one way to convince one's self is to simply keep a record of predictions vs following and see which works better. this at least eventually gets the rational part of the brain behind it.

the fact is we cannot know the future (despite the comforting nature of the illusion) and studies often show that we cannot accurately remember the past. given that we are pretty much reduced to "taking a shot" at the present.

good luck to everyone with their trades

[stlwater]

yes!, following is a much better plan than predicting

wanted to second this--and note one thing. at the start of following market action the mental/emotional end is often really rough. way cognitive dissonance. to do this you give up a sense of outcome and in doing so "knowing what is going on". We are wired to feel very uncomfortable in this sort situation. it's interesting since often the best moments of our lives have this factor in. places where we tried something new always felt like this. I think it helps marginally to understand why we feel weird about "not knowing" but there seems to be an adjustment process--that at least for me took some time. and is still not totally in place.

one way to convince one's self is to simply keep a record of predictions vs following and see which works better. this at least eventually gets the rational part of the brain behind it.

the fact is we cannot know the future (despite the comforting nature of the illusion) and studies often show that we cannot accurately remember the past. given that we are pretty much reduced to "taking a shot" at the present.

good luck to everyone with their trades

Taggard, I really enjoy your psychology commentary. What is your favorite book on the subject?

[joegamma]

Random thoughts:

No easy for bears principle remains in effect. Expect squeezy spikes on rumors/event flow.
Shorts may not want to hold over the weekend and risk a deal getting done in Washington. Bounce before Friday close?
SPX is back in a strong support zone. Early shorts take profits here.
However, possible downside targets are on the radar.
Good probability (non) negotiations in Washington will go to the brink even though a deal probably happens.
In the days ahead, the jackals may want to operate trade to below the November low rising bottoms trend line or under the August low to shake out longs before the next uptrend.
Break of current support/VIX > 19 may be the tell.
I have no idea what will actually happen.

My setups will probably keep me short to have a shot at further downside. (I may trade around the position a bit.)
It may work out or it may not.
They are setup to capture asymmetric reward to risk if it happens. I don't know if it will happen.

SPX Downtrend 2.jpg

Thanks MusicMan for holding your line, appreciate that you bare your thoughts and positions on the board.

FYI, IWM tends to see a bounce of 1 points + , whenever NY DwnVolume exceeds 80% / upvol falls to below 20% (casual glance-not statistical-ignoring large gaps down)
look at $nyupv:$nytot, fwiw

[Al_Dente]

your post of 30min SPY Renko(member site) a few days was much appreciated

Hi boss here’s update SPY renko
(it doesn’t lead…..it follows……like me……..)

yes!, following is a much better plan than predicting
interesting that you use (or someone who was on the board a few years ago) the closing period rather than the hi/lo...seems to reduce chop and fakes

Me perhaps?
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=360&p=41984&hilit=+renko#p41984

Wow, that stuff is almost old enough to vote
I think I used my old “waverider” renko as a template (as in this chart)
Then I overlaid spy on it, then tweaked the bricks to 50 cents
(waverider is on that old thread; I miss him)

[joegamma]

Taggard says he "seconds" my view on NOT Predicting, but I got the concept from him!

[fehro]

SPX 15m 60m

[Cobra]

speechless, another reversal day.

[Cobra]

volume surge, biggest bar so might see pullback here first but this bull shall have legs.

[Out of Bounds]

short 167.65

EDIT 167.69 average now.

Simmbich

[Cobra]

members only update at 1:42 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/10 ... ay-update/

[stlwater]

your post of 30min SPY Renko(member site) a few days was much appreciated

Hi boss here’s update SPY renko
(it doesn’t lead…..it follows……like me……..)

yes!, following is a much better plan than predicting
interesting that you use (or someone who was on the board a few years ago) the closing period rather than the hi/lo...seems to reduce chop and fakes

Me perhaps?
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=360&p=41984&hilit=+renko#p41984

Wow, that stuff is almost old enough to vote
I think I used my old “waverider” renko as a template (as in this chart)
Then I overlaid spy on it, then tweaked the bricks to 50 cents
(waverider is on that old thread; I miss him)

103waverider.png

I know I'm dating myself... lol. Nice chart BTW

[L_T]

speechless, another reversal day.

If the pattern holds sometime in the next hour it should turn down for the afternoon before the big 3:55 ramp job. It can't happen again like that can it?

[TWT]

$SPX: Getting closer to a bottom

[Out of Bounds]

Short closed - loss taken.

[Darkmatter]

Interesting.

[dr659]

speechless, another reversal day.

Politicians speaking can Spook or Goose the Market

[KENA]

Have not heard from our P Bar Boss but I have had 3 P bars up to 169.23 today and also we still have yesterdays up to 169.34.First P Bar at 12:03,12:18 and1:36..Now lets see.

[Al_Dente]

Me perhaps?
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=360&p=41984&hilit=+renko#p41984

Wow, that stuff is almost old enough to vote
I think I used my old “waverider” renko as a template (as in this chart)
Then I overlaid spy on it, then tweaked the bricks to 50 cents
(waverider is on that old thread; I miss him)

I know I'm dating myself... lol. Nice chart BTW

thanks boss
I don’t borrow/steal charts without permission; and when given permission, I credit the source.
That has been my modus operandi for all the years I’ve been on board.
I’ve credited “waverider” HUNDREDS of times.
[correction/exception: I do borrow/steal charts from Cobra……all the time….. ]