10/07/2013 Live Update

[Cobra]

morning hollow red bar again. $SPY
http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/c ... /296353091;

Do you consider the previous unfilled red stick a success or failure? I see the market did close lower but it took more than 1 day. Just curious.

It's a winner. Doesn't have to be the same day.

[Cobra]

this rebound shall have legs.

[Daniel-David]

Intraday, market outperformance continues from XLK, tech in general, and today esp. AAPL.

[fehro]

SPX 60m.. possible indecision , evolving into another possible larger triangle.. but could also just be simple bear flag.

[victorm]

BO: How is your trade going?
JB: Very good so far, i will end the shutdown when gold has hit 1.6
BO: Make it 1.7, i kind of late jumping in.
JB: Deal, bro.

[simpletrader]

SPX 60m.. possible indecision , evolving into another possible larger triangle.. but could also just be simple bear flag.

any concern with VIX? looks like will take a break and could go either way up or down?

[Mr. BachNut]

Short.

My summation index signal is down.
My composite trend signal whipsawed back to neutral on Friday.

The market continues to hold key support even though the event flow seems a little problematic, which is bullish.
My weekend reading suggests an ongoing consensus that the show in Washington will end before real damage is done (usual doom and gloomers excluded).
The consensus is probably right but could be wrong. I am staying agnostic.
The action of the last few days is effectively neutral and consolidating the initial downthrust. My signals favor downside resolution but the probable newsflow favors upside.
Seems like a crap shoot to me and an argument to go to the sidelines.
Technically, the trend line from the November low is appearing pretty darned important, and regardless of Washington, bulls don't want to see that busted.
Perhaps a bit of a pinch exists where the Bernanke no taper high was sold but the rising bottoms trend is bought. This will end. Just a thought.
I am sticking to my setups for now though events may ultimately go against me. Stops are in place.

[stlwater]

Remember this pink trendline? still think it is important score-card between bears and bulls. Bears winning atm.

[Daniel-David]

SPY about halfway btw Fri HI and today's LO.. see if shorts which covered begin to re-assume hedging positions around here. Daily pivot (per Schwab) for today is about 168.50, which would be a fresh HOD if it occurs, and also may be a resistance pt.

[L_T]

BO: How is your trade going?
JB: Very good so far, i will end the shutdown when gold has hit 1.6
BO: Make it 1.7, i kind of late jumping in.
JB: Deal, bro.

Love that.

[fehro]

SPX 60m.. possible indecision , evolving into another possible larger triangle.. but could also just be simple bear flag.

any concern with VIX? looks like will take a break and could go either way up or down?

we break the uptrend line from Nov 2012 on the SPX.. VIX will spike above the 2 year red trend line... is my guess. If we break down, it could be a very very sharp down move... as the VIX breaks its red trend line.

[L_T]

*If the strength continues* in SPY intraday I'm targetting ~ 168.66. If not well then we go lower.

[simpletrader]

SPX 60m.. possible indecision , evolving into another possible larger triangle.. but could also just be simple bear flag.

any concern with VIX? looks like will take a break and could go either way up or down?

we break the uptrend line from Nov 2012 on the SPX.. VIX will spike above the 2 year red trend line... is my guess. If we break down, it could be a very very sharp down move... as the VIX breaks its red trend line.

thanks, watching weekly vix BB now. should poke through and sharply reverse, then it is a bottom.

[Mr. BachNut]

One thought I have had about recent action is that instead of selling to manage risk, longs have bought some insurance hedges in the options market instead just in case...
The recent SKEW chart supports this notion.

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:01 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/10 ... ay-update/

[stlwater]

One thought I have had about recent action is that instead of selling to manage risk, longs have bought some insurance hedges in the options market instead just in case...
The recent SKEW chart supports this notion.

SKEW 100713.jpg

I call it conditioning. Market participants have been conditioned to accept the accelerated rising trendline and until that breaks they will not seriously begin to sell.. That's why when it does break, all hell is going to break loose. With all these conditioned bulls running for the door at the same time. Price action over the past weeks has shown that those die-hard bulls are not quite as convinced this go-around. With price hovering around the trendline those bulls buying there are going to become less and less convinced.

By the way, the more this begins to look like a "crap shoot" the more it favors bears psychologically and technically. Consider all the sell signals and divergences and rising resistance. Looking at a chart there is only one reason for bulls to hold long and that is the rising trendline everything else is arguing for a sizable correction (including the rising wedge itself).

[Cobra]

double top.

[L_T]

*If the strength continues* in SPY intraday I'm targetting ~ 168.66. If not well then we go lower.

Cobra beat me to it but this definitely counts as strength NOT continuing......

[Heck]

Big market jump ahead
4.78 times as many overvalued opening Index puts as calls
202% undervalued opening Equity calls to puts
http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

[Mr. BachNut]

Bear Food.
I think last Thursday's low (ES 1663.50) may be a hot potato.
It is a deep Fibonacci retracement level for the recent uptrend.
There may be stops lurking under there sufficient to take things down to the November trendline where there may be some more stops.
This is just guesswork obviously but there may just be an opportunity for the bears here.

That said, the bears have rarely missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity this year...
Oh yeah...and I'm just talking my book here...