10/18/2013 Live Update

[f-stop]

Anyone see this guy?

On "trading view" it shows as 52 week and daily trading range!!??
Hate to have to explain that buy! Wish for that sell!

[essessme]

A couple charts pointing to at least a temp top

Some Hampson info, not quite there yet.http://solarcycles.net/2013/10/14/cycli ... -bull-top/

Perhaps but the RA NYSE summation already looks to be in trouble - bulls need to move and sustain it over 500 or else...
The oscillators, both volume and AD are exhibiting similar action to mid September but at lower levels...
ST Tick went extreme overbought on yesterday's rampfest...

[Auole]

BB52, y'all wizened traders out there/here, anyone considering shorting XIV? I am sure tempted, opex, full moons, Yellen needing an opportune time to re-uncreatively-invent QE security blanket, that 3X $NYHGH 666 (yest. evening charts), TA only on the 15 min ADX not confirming the up trend,......

[wayne0708]

VIX has actually not confirmed any new SPY highs (by making a new VIX low) since 14 march @ $11.05 (11.05% volatility)
See red box, second panel

Are you suggesting that there are more room for VIX to free fall?

Historically VIX eventually confirms market highs
Except in October 2007

1018vix week_png.png

Got ya.. that means when VIX confirms SPY will be much higher than today high.

[Mr. BachNut]

So, it looks like the magnetic pull will be in the SPY 174 and 173 strikes today.
174 has the ball, but I wouldn't rule out an attempt on 173 at some point, perhaps after the Europe close.
Not a prediction...

How hard is it to trade options, Mr. Bachnut? I read a primer from Phil's Stockworld, but I've got some sort of mental block on the subject.

I rarely trade options. I think you need to get pretty comfortable with the math (the greeks and all that) to do it well.
I find there is plenty of leverage in my trades of the underlying as is.
I pay attention to OPEX because at this time the derivative often moves the underlying rather than vice versa.

[Cobra]

revisit day high, key time. I'm still neutral. the trend is up so generally I won't hope it's double top though.

[Al_Dente]

.... summation already looks to be in trouble - bulls need to move and sustain it over 500 or else...
The oscillators, both volume and AD are exhibiting similar action to mid September but at lower levels...
ST Tick went extreme overbought on yesterday's rampfest...

excellent, thanks

[ALdaytrade]

VIX has actually not confirmed any new SPY highs (by making a new VIX low) since 14 march @ $11.05 (11.05% volatility)
See red box, second panel

Are you suggesting that there are more room for VIX to free fall?

Historically VIX eventually confirms market highs
Except in October 2007

1018vix week_png.png

I am not sure I understand what it is that you are saying here. Sorry, I must be very clear, but for some reason I can not see the point clearly. Can you ellaborate for me. Thank you.

[gappy]

BB52, y'all wizened traders out there/here, anyone considering shorting XIV? I am sure tempted, opex, full moons, Yellen needing an opportune time to re-uncreatively-invent QE security blanket, that 3X $NYHGH 666 (yest. evening charts), TA only on the 15 min ADX not confirming the up trend,......

xivcob18oct.png

And tonight the eclipse of the hunter moon, to punch up volatility a notch.

[Mr. BachNut]

So, it looks like the magnetic pull will be in the SPY 174 and 173 strikes today.
174 has the ball, but I wouldn't rule out an attempt on 173 at some point, perhaps after the Europe close.
Not a prediction...

Problem with 173 is that resistance at SPX 1734 was broken and it would be quite bearish if SPX falls back below today, a real trap

Yeah. I think an attempt at 173 would probably fail. 174 has the center of gravity.
I don't know what will happen. Have just seen thrusts in the past.

The interesting time is to see if support holds firm next week after OPEX has cleared.

[kongen]

a big H&S (unconfirmed yet) forming on TNX.

[Al_Dente]

I am not sure I understand what it is that you are saying here. Sorry, I must be very clear, but for some reason I can not see the point clearly. Can you ellaborate for me. Thank you.

Market up, VIX down
When market makes new highs, VIX should confirm that by making new lows
(but VIX has not confirmed since 14 march; that’s a long term divergence)

[essessme]

You are most welcome - AD
For the gold bugs out there I have All Hallow's eve as an IT/LT turn (Low) with the potential that it is straddled ie a double bottom mid Oct / mid Nov..

[MrMiyagi]

Slept in this morning.....

[gappy]

Anyone see this guy?

Smells of desperation... or not, but the metals are full of it.

reuters.PNG

gold.PNG

[rhight]

A couple charts pointing to at least a temp top

Some Hampson info, not quite there yet.http://solarcycles.net/2013/10/14/cycli ... -bull-top/

Good read.

[Al_Dente]

Does anyone follow the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator?
Any comments?

[Cobra]

3rd time testing high, now the bias is up as more test more likely a breakout.

[gappy]

You are most welcome - AD
For the gold bugs out there I have All Hallow's eve as an IT/LT turn (Low) with the potential that it is straddled ie a double bottom mid Oct / mid Nov..

I would like to see inflation hop before the metals move decisively.( From the earlier Hampson referral): I want to end by commenting on the global disinflation in place currently. This to me is consistent with demographic trends, and is the threat to a commodities rally coming to pass. If commodities can’t rally as per historic topping order norms, then I would point to the unprecedented collective demographic deflationary trends in place now.

Capture.PNG

The Fed erasing the volatility of cpi's is unnatural, it keeps the raw resource prices tamped down. Still short GDX, might as well expect it to ride to the bottom of the bucket as long as the banksters are calling the tune.

[essessme]

Does anyone follow the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator?
Any comments?

Just in passing Al - last zbt was in July can't be triggered in here as the low was not low enough...