10/19/2013 Weekend Update

[uempel]

Standard deviation chart
SPX just entered the red zone (nearing 3 standard deviations above 50ma).
It doesn’t stay there long, usually a couple of days…
HOWEVER, note the red paper clips show that in May it stayed in the red zone for 14 trading days.
There is no supply up here in this rarefied air, only demand

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This chart carries the same message as Al_Dente's "worm": SPX is kind of extended in regard to DMA 377 (which is a good long term center line)

[uempel]

And this is something for the bears: tons of resistance in the 1728/1745 area - should SPX jump higher this week without any consolidation I'd sure be surprised

[uempel]

Last weekend chart

[uempel]

Well, I want to add this chart too - the very last weekend chart Quite interesting that the bull of 2006/2000 equals 2009/2013 on the log chart. TA significance would be much more important if it were a numeric parity - but let's see what happens next week

[Cobra]

Intraduing a completely new designed trading system: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/123-system/.

I'll use it to generate trading signals for various ETFs. Below is what currently covered:

SPY, QQQ, IWM, XIU.TO, EEM, XLF, XLE, IYR, GDX, GLD, TLT, UUP, USO

[uempel]

Intraduing a completely new designed trading system: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/123-system/.

I'll use it to generate trading signals for various ETFs. Below is what currently covered:

SPY, QQQ, IWM, XIU.TO, EEM, XLF, XLE, IYR, GDX, GLD, TLT, UUP, USO

Hey Cobra, you work on Sundays

[Cobra]

Intraduing a completely new designed trading system: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/123-system/.

I'll use it to generate trading signals for various ETFs. Below is what currently covered:

SPY, QQQ, IWM, XIU.TO, EEM, XLF, XLE, IYR, GDX, GLD, TLT, UUP, USO

Hey Cobra, you work on Sundays

14/7/366 I work.

[Royal Flush]

Although a trend line with only enough points on it to establish it doesn't count for a lot, it is interresting the way VIX bounced from it on Friday. The other interesting thing about it is the divergence it forms with the SPX which is making HH while the VIX makes HL.

[quientuves]

SP in terms of 30yr-bond didn't make a new high... May be wait to short till it makes...? or at least till reach a better RSI?

[essessme]

Hey Al D
You asked about the Zweig Breadth Thrust on Friday which brought up whether an ema or sma is used in the calculation. I have always understood it to be the 10 day simple but I decided to back check the data to locate past Zw Breadth Thrusts...
I pulled data since Jan 1991 for the analysis the use of sma yields the following dates 6/1/04, 12/8/08, 3/19/09, 3/23/09, 3/30/11, 11/30/12, 7/9/13 - using 10 day exponential gives only one in this 22+ year data set being 3/18/09. I was somewhat surprised to not see a single occurrence during the great bull run of the 90's. As a side if Zweig did truly use an ema for his calc we have 3 days to trigger the 2nd Zw BT since 1991.

[gappy]

Economy feels to be barely above stall speed now, so why QE on, pumping liquidity to the world banksters? Not helping a reduction in food stamp recipients by increasing real employment. Not sparking small business lending and optimism. Ah, but the banks can "derive" profit with that QE for their ledger. How much?

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Anywhere from 12 to 35 percent for three of the big four. How much of their loan cap is risked for those profit?

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Ouch. All and then some.

bb.PNG

How much of these profits are based on the legal limbo mumble jumble land of Oz valuations decided by the banksters themselves.

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Have things improved since the last derivative bubble popped?

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Compared to the deficit, how much coin are we talking about? Whoa Nellie! http://www.occ.treas.gov/topics/capital ... /dq213.pdf

[TWT]

$EURUSD: Another postential Triangle thrust before a meaningful correction ?

[uempel]

Intraduing a completely new designed trading system: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/123-system/.

I'll use it to generate trading signals for various ETFs. Below is what currently covered:

SPY, QQQ, IWM, XIU.TO, EEM, XLF, XLE, IYR, GDX, GLD, TLT, UUP, USO

Hey Cobra, you work on Sundays

14/7/366 I work.

I'm disapointed, I thought you worked more than a mere 14 hour day

[TWT]

$ES_F (Globex) The loss of 1734 could kickoff a correction

[TWT]

$USO: The sideways move may have formed a bearish Triangle

[TWT]

$DTO: Following the Triangle idea of $USO long in the range 33.77-33.64 out eod print < 33.40

[uempel]

Since the September low at 1627 SPX has shown a perfect Zig-zag. The speed of last weeks rally suggests there might be further upside this week - even though a classic Zig-zag is not a bullish pattern N.B. strong resistance at 1745 (on the daily chart, not shown here)