11/08/2013 Live Update

[Cobra]

not a valid breakout yet, wait. still favor bulls though.

[jack black]

How much higher the nasdaq sentiment can go?
Too bad we have no reading for year 2000.

[stlwater]

I think some of you are over-thinking this. Step back and look at the weekly TF. Look at where we are on the DOW, SPX, RUT, NDX. Ask yourself if you are inclined to get long or to take profits. If you're not averse to shorting the market, would this be a likely place to look to get short? Now drill down into today. Consider yesterday. Consider the risk of taper, jobs report, GDP. Now I don't know how you set up your intraday buy/sell signals, but on my charts its still on sell intraday. This is likely a bounce, an op to get short (if you haven't) or add to shorts if you have.

However I will not discount the fact that we COULD be breaking into an upper accelerated trend channel, though the chances are better that we are topping for the ST or MT and possibly the LT. Better chances of that and thus why I am short and not sweating the confusing price action. Then again, I'm not day-trading I'm LT.

Perversely. This could be a situation where no matter what, the market goes up. I know that many of us assume that because bad news is good news for the market these days because of the Fed intervention, that good news must therefor be bad news for the market, but no necessarily so. This of course is the premise upon which the POMO was proposed. Support the market until it can run on fundamentals again. Trouble is, nothing ever works so easy. Think child learning to ride a bike. As long as the child knows their father is holding the seat they do ok.. then when the father lets go and the child finally looks back to see if he's there, and he's not... what usually happens?

The suggestion that "this time is different" is usually the doubt caused one to dump an otherwise perfect entry. Accept that "this time may be different" and let your trade work until it doesn't.

[L_T]

IWM is a sell on a daily, 60 minute, and 30 minute time frame. 30 minute here. The red line is from the daily chart where I had noted a sell or short signal.

[L_T]

fehro do you have a RUT 30 minute chart? I'm curious how you would draw the channels/trend lines etc. Thanks.

[taggard]

This reminds me when I was trying to time market moves back in Octover 2007. I correctly identified top in the first two weeks, but when first wave of selling started circa 20th of October, it confused me and I covered. I missed a huge sell off at the end of October. 2013 is analogous to 2007 in many respects, but not identical for sure.[/quote]

very much appreciate your honesty. would you care to share any solutions you might have come up with to this perspective error?[/quote]

I'm afraid I have not much to share, I'm a slow learner All I know that macroeconomics and longer timeframe setups can mess you up.[/quote]

well only what i found. first as long as it's a chart--the time frame part is far more relative than absolute. so it's possible to use a monthly like a 5 min--with the idea that minor error in timing is 2-3 months. but they read very much the same. the 5 feels tighter partly because the action is a bit (a bit) but mostly because we are humans and waiting 90 days to confirm is different than 15 min. Second you noted you got the idea of the top--i am taking this to mean you saw a top. i have had problems with tops in the past--if i am trading a (existing) trend or range then i am continuing the trade and it caves. move one is to stop digging holes--move two is to place a small amount of money--it makes no difference how much--on the current (so break down move).

What you get out of this small amount of money (and seriously it can be 100-1000 bux) is information on how the move feels at the least possible risk. having a tiny trade gets you lots more information than no trade. and at least paper trading gets you more information than not even doing that. a small cash trade allows you to avoid the "deer in the headlights" problem. But it also allows you to avoid the "dude i know what is gong to happen for sure" problem.

what is of most value is not getting this or that move right (in my opinion) it is gathering confidence and skills. so this sort of learning takes time--but leads towards being much more responsive to market changes which is the only sort of confidence i will ever find i am afraid. i place very little value on prediction but epic value on being able to turn on a dime. the problem is the two are somewhat (for me at least) in opposition. once you are predictive you tend to be generally less responsive. and once you are very responsive you are less predictive on average. the two skills rely on different mental functions or mechanics. it's possible to be sequential in application of the two but i find it very hard to be doing both at the same time.

hence if i freeze up--the best possible thing i can do is to do something. ideally small--get information--and then enlarge on it. if i insist on making a large move--it makes any move harder and that is what i am trying to avoid.

on another note i think up upemple's simple daily with trend and 20 and the 5 min are pretty in there. these things show what to watch in a very simple and effective manner.

[TWT]

$SPX: Current up leg should be unfolding a DZZ

[uempel]

Time signal for approx 12:45 p.m.

[taggard]

The suggestion that "this time is different" is usually the doubt caused one to dump an otherwise perfect entry. Accept that "this time may be different" and let your trade work until it doesn't.[/quote]

agree. the second you start trading you have to accept that "you cannot know" when you put on a trade.

[Cobra]

breakout. not sure about target as it looks like wedge instead of ascending triangle.

[Al_Dente]

Indices here: all with an STO-12 signaler (thick blue)
You can see they are all in sell mode: IWM and XLF went first; others followed
Now XLF banks are trying their best to bounce from oversold
THIS IS DAILY, NOT INTRADAY
When things change, this will too……
Roger that ….

[Out of Bounds]

breakout. not sure about target as it looks like wedge instead of ascending triangle.

Exactly. I also read it as a wedge so - this upside break is... confusing.

[Daniel-David]

SPY 5day MA now at 176.33; 10day is at 176.34.. ultra short term traders (day or short-swing) who are bearish might want to see price below these two key widely watched MAs before initiating anything to the downside.

[Cobra]

here's the wedge i'm talking. wedge is difficult to trade, so I don't read it as bearish. well, at least you've made h2 money.

[fehro]

fehro do you have a RUT 30 minute chart? I'm curious how you would draw the channels/trend lines etc. Thanks.

Here's a RUT 60m.. will post 30 m shortly... possible resistance here.

[joegamma]

fehro do you have a RUT 30 minute chart? I'm curious how you would draw the channels/trend lines etc. Thanks.

Here's a RUT 60m.. will post 30 m shortly... possible resistance here.

Thanks for the great charts Fehro!
For I/T bears, looks like 10950/70 should cap this covering?

[fehro]

fehro do you have a RUT 30 minute chart? I'm curious how you would draw the channels/trend lines etc. Thanks.

Here's a RUT 60m.. will post 30 m shortly... possible resistance here.

RUT 30m

[Al_Dente]

5min internals
INTRADAY ONLY

[MrMiyagi]

SPX may have already topped for the day at the 10sma.

[L_T]

fehro do you have a RUT 30 minute chart? I'm curious how you would draw the channels/trend lines etc. Thanks.

Here's a RUT 60m.. will post 30 m shortly... possible resistance here.

RUT 30m

Great thanks. I thought I saw something like your dashed purple upper trend line there but wanted confirmation. Your convergence spots like that have been working well lately (or I've just noticed your charts lately )

Thanks for sharing.