11/30/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling actions chart from stocktiming still shows negative divergence. i.e. despite NYA new high, institution accumulation actually goes down while distribution is making higher low.

[Cobra]

Shortened week so guess COT report is delayed. The smart money chart below still is the same as the last week.

[Cobra]

AAII

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks. Another great week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1130&p=148984#p148984

[Cobra]

preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1136&p=148986#p148986

[Al_Dente]

How are we doing?
All “Developed Markets” plus EEM Emerging.
One month performance

And here are the BRIC nations plus a few others, with SPX in purple as reference.
One month performance

[Al_Dente]

Who’s trashing Rosenberg?
Barry defends Rosie, sets the record straight, and demands an apology from zerohedge.
“Its no secret that he makes a lot of money — about $3m per year. That is the going rate for a strategist/economist of his stature.”
“ 'Breakfast with Dave', the daily research product Rosenberg puts out, has nearly 3000 subscribers paying $1,000 per year.”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/11/no ... Picture%29

[KeiZai]

SPY chart update: price went exactly as was projected...so..so far this count is valid but I don't like the divergence in the W3 of (5) so this structure could easily morph into something else

O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1122&p=148005#p148005

More likely scenario is 38.2 - 50back before another leg higher (Xmas rally) something like posted here: download/file.php?id=55472&mode=view

DAX: Medium term plan played out well (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1127&p=148550#p148550) and now I don't see any edge there (not a short nor long for me) - wait and see


O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1132&p=148808#p148808

XLF: Is at (a)=(c) MM but does not look done to me pullback and another high?...likely....

O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1122&p=148019#p148019

[joegamma]

Thanks Keizai for the great charts.
some small cap breadth measures hint at more up, but maybe not at same rate of growth as past few weeks.
it seems the slope on these measures tends to lead by a few days to weeks.

[joegamma]

divergence and lack of confirmation with trin-verse (Aldente style) hints at some price downside

But the 2hour (non-inverted) (using MA x-overs) has not exactly been profitable for bears

although more I/T, the strength in trin may be hinting at lack of volume and advancer momentum to the upside, note correlations (and 2 failures), when positive with prices, good time for covered calls in the portfolio? failures occur when trin is already fairly high

[joegamma]

cumulative nyad looks like new highs are coming, and nysi looks to have successfully tested 100 ema

[BullBear52x]

Last week, a weekly hanging man was a little disappointment for bears over all, but a Doji right after a hanging man on SPY, bulls are not out of the wood just yet in candle term.

But, now that weekly NYSI is turning green, if I am bearish on anything I will be a little more cautious than usual here.

for short short term out look or game plan for Monday, I see that we are in a trap range of intraday time frame on my simple setup, bullish bias until 180.5 is broken.

[BullBear52x]

XLF: Is at (a)=(c) MM but does not look done to me pullback and another high?...likely....

O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1122&p=148019#p148019

The attachment XLF-30.png is no longer available

50% sounds reasonable of a target on FAS, but bears need to continue the push on Monday.

[BullBear52x]

AAPL, How? no way it will sustain to move on, CCI 21 of over 300+ is rare, +/- 200 will be the max for counter trend on either side.

[Al_Dente]

Bill Luby’s favorite VIX ratio (but inverted) turned bear-spy on Friday
[edit: Last signal was buy-spy on 16 Oct]

[joegamma]

always something for bears and bulls, here is nysi with some views of correlation

and a longer term perspective

[joegamma]

Carl Swenlin's decisionpoint does not seem bullish on the earnings fundamentals , has some comparison of PE gaap vs pro formahttp://decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html

and a comment on bubble levels herehttp://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_sp ... .html#more

[joegamma]

maybe its time for a breather, lower highs on adv and upvol, (not shown here-and also trin seems making higher lows, fwiw

[RedKite]

More likely scenario is 38.2 - 50back before another leg higher (Xmas rally) something like posted here: download/file.php?id=55472&mode=view

Thanks KeiZai, I reached exactly the same conclusion through looking at trend cycles. The cycle starting October 9 has still to put in a finishing leg down. The new bottom should be about 5 to 10 trading days from now, possibly Wednesday 11th.

[gappy]

Daily chart, blue histogram is Derivitive Oscillator.

do.PNG

spy.PNG

Trust all Cobraland bulls gave much thanks last week. Price is marching to it's own technical beat now. glta.