12/03/2013 Live Update

[simpletrader]

oil looks like a reverse here.

[L_T]

Anyone noticing oil moving up this morning?

[L_T]

oil looks like a reverse here.

Good timing!

[uempel]

Two daily SPX charts showing resistance resp a break below a grid line:

[Cobra]

double top, rebound failed, now let's see if bulls can make double bottom. I'm neutral.

[Al_Dente]

One analyst justifies shorting APPL:
“I am going to go out on a limb and suggest that people under nine and those earning less than $2 a day are unlikely buyers of smartphones in general and iPhones in particular. If that is the case, the number of people worldwide with the means to buy a smartphone is no more than 60% of 5.9 billion, or roughly 2.4 billion. This market is today pretty well saturated.”
“…when everyone owns a smartphone, demand from that point forward is going to be a combination of new entrants into the customer pool from growth in the upper "middle class" and replacement demand from existing users…replacement rates in developed markets were about 40% meaning users on average replaced their smartphone every two and one half years and about 25% in emerging markets where users replace their phones on average every four years.”
“…There is more to life than the phone you own…”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1873561 ... ource=feed

[joegamma]

Thanks Uempel for LT view on resistance.

Seems odd to not rally ahead of double pomo today,
this would be a great time for bears to pump up the volume, still a bit short.
watching 10405ish tlt too

[uempel]

I'm amazed by European/DAX weakness (DAX down 1.84% so far today) and rel strength of SPX Are the Americans pulling money out of Europe? Chart courtesy GS, Nov 20th.

[Cobra]

testing day low, key time. I think bears might have small legs at least so might be a little lower low at least.

[Cobra]

target met. volume surge, so might see rebound here first then we'll see.

[Al_Dente]

Relative strength of the SPY components, last 5 days
Strong today: tech, energy, staples (defensive).
Weak today: banks, health, DISCRETIONARY (Black Friday: more bodies, spent less per bod), and industrials.

[Cobra]

this bear shall have small legs at least.

[joegamma]

seems too quiet, anybody feel like a MDD is building and washout looming?

or just another opportunity to build some shorts for squeezing the smalls ?

[fehro]

One analyst justifies shorting APPL:
“I am going to go out on a limb and suggest that people under nine and those earning less than $2 a day are unlikely buyers of smartphones in general and iPhones in particular. If that is the case, the number of people worldwide with the means to buy a smartphone is no more than 60% of 5.9 billion, or roughly 2.4 billion. This market is today pretty well saturated.”
“…when everyone owns a smartphone, demand from that point forward is going to be a combination of new entrants into the customer pool from growth in the upper "middle class" and replacement demand from existing users…replacement rates in developed markets were about 40% meaning users on average replaced their smartphone every two and one half years and about 25% in emerging markets where users replace their phones on average every four years.”
“…There is more to life than the phone you own…”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1873561 ... ource=feed

AAPL monthly.. you could argue giant rising wedge... target $100... I know stupid... $200 then seems not unreasonable....

[fehro]

SPX 60m

[joegamma]

SPX 60m

nice chart Fehro.....
anyone have a view on the bearishnes to XLF and BKX by detroit's BK go-ahead?

[fehro]

SPX 15m... expanding triangle into the trash can... watch blue trends, and open gap lower...

[Al_Dente]

XIV extreme fail
Now gunning for a test of the 19 Nov double bottom
[edit: that is a perfect dome]

[fehro]

SPX 60m

nice chart Fehro.....
anyone have a view on the bearishnes to XLF and BKX by detroit's BK go-ahead?

just have this weekly XLF... notice the RSI... divergence, and turning down under the trend line.. quite a bit support below... green, purple.. if it holds..

[joegamma]

shortterm traders have been conditioned to cover shorts quick, and "same 'ol same 'ol" says buy dip....thats how a trend daydown is (remotely) possible.
iwm looking for candle tail down toward 1120/30 then consolidate 1150/80 for this afternoon, seems more likely..

thanks for XLF pic Fehro