12/09/2013 Live Update

[uempel]

Partial short. Half position stopped out on Friday in the red.

My summation signal is down.
My composite trend signal whipsawed back to up Friday but with qualifications. One of the critical indicators for a trend change turned down.

Friday was consistent with a common pattern this year. Several times the market has flirted with a bearish technical threshold only to resume the bull course.
The current trend from the October low though has lost a lot of momentum, and bears were doing damage last week. A lot was repaired on Friday, but a few issues remain.
Depending on how things go this week, I could end up long, short or both as I have conflicting signals and setups.
I am guessing we'll see two way trade this week. If so, it will give me a headache.
Argues for smaller trade sizing, but let's see how things develop.

Always intersting BachNut

[Cobra]

50% chances of double top. consolidation here would mean bullish though, wait.

[TraderGirl]

TWTR...was a good buy....

Told Subscribers Nov 14th it could get a lower low, had 5 waves down, for possibly "A" wave, so if it sees a move lower to wave "C", then "could be a good buy"...

Now it has 5 waves up, so the next pullback could be bought....

[uempel]

Ellipses on the daily SPX suggest: support 1804, good resistance up at 1819, a time signal for tomorrow or Wednesday (check the dashed red vertical, looks like Wednesday, right?)

[koolblue]

I wouldnt be surprised to see a short term top put in today...seasonals really suck the balance of the week

[koolblue]

heres what i meanabout general seasonal tendencies...

[SigmaEcho]

Ellipses on the daily SPX suggest: support 1804, good resistance up at 1819, a time signal for tomorrow or Wednesday (check the dashed red vertical, looks like Wednesday, right?)

The attachment 90.png is no longer available

good spot for the SPX year R4 pivot @ 1818


("In the past 42 years, since 1970, the yearly R4 pivot has been hit only four times, and three of the four times it was the high of the year ('80, '87, '89). 1995 was the only year the S&P 500 and Dow Jones went higher than the yearly R4 pivot points.")


http://stocktwits.com/message/17999268

[fehro]

SPX 15m.. testing wedge's edge..

[koolblue]

And from Mike Burk:SPX Presidential Year 1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1953-1 -0.12% -0.32% -0.12% -0.24% -0.08% -0.88%
1957-1 -0.94% -0.88% -0.12% 0.10% 0.44% -1.40%
1961-1 0.32% -0.11% 0.08% -0.40% 0.47% 0.36%
1965-1 -0.75% 0.88% -0.12% 0.31% 0.26% 0.59%
1969-1 -1.20% -0.09% -0.08% 0.04% 0.32% -1.00%
Avg -0.54% -0.10% -0.07% -0.04% 0.28% -0.47%

1973-1 1.49% -1.95% -2.57% -1.27% 0.99% -3.32%
1977-1 -0.42% -1.53% -0.05% 0.19% 0.74% -1.07%
1981-1 -0.85% -0.30% 0.53% 0.18% -0.62% -1.05%
1985-1 0.62% 0.07% 0.94% 0.20% 1.55% 3.38%
1989-1 0.22% -0.52% -0.29% -0.28% 0.32% -0.55%
Avg 0.21% -0.85% -0.29% -0.19% 0.60% -0.52%

1993-1 0.33% 0.07% -0.10% -0.45% -0.05% -0.21%
1997-1 -0.14% -0.67% -0.61% -1.53% -0.16% -3.12%
2001-1 -1.59% -0.28% 0.03% -1.56% 0.33% -3.06%
2005-1 -0.24% 0.13% -0.50% -0.12% 0.28% -0.45%
2009-1 -0.25% -1.03% 0.37% 0.58% 0.37% 0.05%
Avg -0.38% -0.35% -0.16% -0.62% 0.15% -1.36%

SPX summary for Presidential Year 1 1953 - 2009
Avg -0.23% -0.43% -0.18% -0.28% 0.34% -0.78%
Win% 33% 27% 33% 47% 73% 27%

SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2012
Avg 0.19% 0.01% 0.04% -0.31% 0.22% 0.15%
Win% 58% 47% 54% 40% 67% 55%... Next week has to be one of the worst weeks of the year during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. Since 1965 the OTC had only been up twice (the most recent time in 1985) and the SPX 4 times since 1953.

[koolblue]

EDITORS NOTE .. BY NEXT WEEK HE MEANS THIS WEEK ..

[Denali92]

There has been a strong tendency for the market to pull back for a few days post Dec employment prior to opex week and then RALLY in to opex week.... so I definitely agree with you.... as the Fed meeting was this calendar week last year, it was a Wed to Fri pullback.....

The stronger tendency is the rally in to opex and FOMC....

-D

heres what i meanabout general seasonal tendencies...

[koolblue]

Thx, Denali92... i remain bullish till my daily chart tells me not too, but very nervous! (refer to past weekend and es updates for the reasons). Im just trying to relay some interesting information for everyones consideration... if they choose!

[koolblue]

Sure having a little trouble here so far...

[Cobra]

rebound here would favor bulls as could be ascending triangle in the forming then, so bears must work harder.

[joegamma]

There has been a strong tendency for the market to pull back for a few days post Dec employment prior to opex week and then RALLY in to opex week.... so I definitely agree with you.... as the Fed meeting was this calendar week last year, it was a Wed to Fri pullback.....

The stronger tendency is the rally in to opex and FOMC....

-D

heres what i meanabout general seasonal tendencies...

Denali: thanks for crunchin the numbers! your stats are very helpful

[uempel]

[fehro]

SPX 15m... didn't quite tag the upper pink within the wedge.. so did the wedge expand a tad... or is it just riding the underside on a retest?

[koolblue]

For those who might have missed the post... i find this hilarious!....

(Nanex)–On December 6, 2013, at 8:29:53, which was 7 seconds before the 8:30 AM scheduled release of the Employment numbers and Personal Income, the price of gold as measured by the February 2014 (GC) futures contract plummeted almost $6 on about 600 contracts traded in 50 milliseconds.
At 1.6 seconds before the news release, about 2,000 March 2014 5-Year T-Note Futures contracts sent prices down so fast, that trading halted for 5 seconds: which included the time of the news release (chart 6)! People weren’t able to trade these treasury futures when the news was released. The same thing happened during the Employment numbers release in June.

At 1 second before the news release, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) as measured by the ETF symbol DIA, rocketed 170 points higher. The DJIA futures moved the equivalent of 193 dow points at the same time. Both came crashing back seconds later...... LETS FILE THIS UNDER THE LOADED DICE DEPARTMENT!...rofl

[Al_Dente]

Everything is fine for now, but it’s a chop/range day so anything can happen.
It would be even “finer” if SPY could pull off a new high
COMPQ/QQQ new hi Friday; new high today
IWM weak
GDX still on swing-bear

[uempel]

Update: