02/08/2014 Weekend Update

[KeiZai]

I think if you're bullish you're already buy in and wait for the reaction on 20/50 ma. and if you are bearish base on hourly time frame. here is something for you, new evil act, if you're agreed with me I'll wish you best of the luck, Monday the chase starts

The attachment 2.PNG is no longer available

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same view all week, mid to long term = sell.

The attachment 4.PNG is no longer available

Interesting chart with that ratio BB think the sell spot could fit into my view around +-1810 SPX. Gonna be good R/R so let's see how it plays out but I personaly think* we will see higher low from there. (*anyway market doesn't care what I think ) Just because too many traders are "counting" this as a B-wave snapback rally, I am not saying atm it isn't but I would not bet the farm on it and I prefer another outcome Here is an "analogy" I am tracking for some time and if I am right we should be in the wave5 of 3 right now. Anyways just for fun you know price pays



Pattern: http://i.imgur.com/dB2dTxy.png

2010: closer look (the count there is only for ilustration of similarity it is not the right "count" as the 2009-10 leg was in ending diagonal)

Current cycle:

And game plan if the price stays above 1757

So in my opinion we are right now heading into "XX" after forming an right shoulder with pullback to 1780-70 but as I said price pays so let's focus on setups

[BullBear52x]

Nice charts KeiZai, Thanks,

ratio charts, not inverted you know what I tried to say not what I wrote right?

[BullBear52x]

Weekly look:
$NYSI is still pointing down.

Weekly candle is bullish, hammer time

In order to earn my green arrow histogram must turn up, not yet, one more strong week to get it up.

[BullBear52x]

One more fact about moving averages, for long term 50 DMA is best average ONLYif it's trending market,up or down, for the sideways market 50 ma will be of no good just like any moving averages. now I will ask myself what MA is my bread and butter? on wallstreet journey paper now they use daily MA 65, really? I guess this is new found MA grail again I don't think a traders really care about this daily moving averages it's more use among the investor (long term type of guy or the in-volunteer type of investor ) this is another reason why we confuse one another on the time frame, which side of these moving averages are you on? Peace!

[Al_Dente]

Citi chart: the stock markets in emerging countries ("EM") with current account deficits have fared far worse that those with surpluses over the last year.... due in part to tapering.... but they found it also true going back to 1995.
“If you are a country you want to be in the bottom right of this chart.”
[source: Citi; Financial Times]

Similar chart for comparison, showing the current account deficits/surpluses of the DEVELOPED MARKETS ("DM").

[daytradingES]

This post is for intraday traders so if you are focused on the mutli-day swings don't bother with it.
(as Cobra said/implied "time-frame frames the question".

http://screencast.com/t/PvhOsoPIza

[RedKite]

Swing timeframe. As you've probably read elsewhere, we seem to be following a 1929 analog with astonishing accuracy, which places us a couple of weeks before a crash. The recent dip and recovery fit exactly. Detailed chart at prezelcharts.com. This analog has also been mentioned by Phil Davis and Tom Demark. Even if we don't follow the 1929 analog, we've still formed a strong three peaks and domed house pattern, with a target of about 14800 DOW (currently 15794). The 1929 crash was an overrun fall from a three peaks and domed house.

I don't particularly like analogs, and I'm only taking an interest in this one because I'm surprised at how accurate it's turning out to be, almost on a day to day basis. The analog suggests a small further rise over a few days to form the top of a right shoulder, and then a fall, starting slowly at first. So by the end of the coming week we should be able to see if the anolog is holding, or at worst early the following week.

Having said all that, on the many charts I follow for cyclic analysis I don't have a single indicator that says this current rally is anything but genuine, or that the bottom last week was false (if anybody has one I'd love to hear about it). So on the one hand my system is screaming buy, and on the other the analog is screaming sell. On balance, I'm doing nothing. In roughly a week we should see if the analog is still correct, and if it is then my system will say failed recovery, sell, and they'll both agree.

[fehro]

a good Sunday read http://lifehacker.com/how-to-train-your ... 1516998286

Thinking critically isn't just about training your brain. It's also about training your ear so you notice subtle little words and phrases that can set off warning flags. As we already mentioned, it's impossible to pay attention to everything, so knowing the handful of phrases that tend to come before a weak argument is really helpful. Generally speaking, a good warning flag for when you need to put on that critical thinking cap is when the speaker uses a qualifying statement.

The Wall Street Journal has a bunch of these types of phrases:

I want to say
I'm just saying
To be perfectly honest
I just want you to know
To tell you the truth
I'm not saying
I hear what you're saying
Don't take this the wrong way
Let's be frank
As far as I know
I'm thinking that
Surely
These are the types of statements that tend to signal untruth, and they're a good indicator that it's time to start paying attention. Once you do, you'll know that it's time to start asking questions.

[uempel]

To me it looks at though resistance around SPX 1803 is crucial. If SPX manages to break that ceiling and to close higher once or twice we can assume that higher prices lie ahead...

I think if you're bullish you're already buy in and wait for the reaction on 20/50 ma. and if you are bearish base on hourly time frame. here is something for you, new evil act, if you're agreed with me I'll wish you best of the luck, Monday the chase starts

The attachment 2.PNG is no longer available

The attachment 3.PNG is no longer available

same view all week, mid to long term = sell.

The attachment 4.PNG is no longer available

Interesting chart with that ratio BB think the sell spot could fit into my view around +-1810 SPX. Gonna be good R/R so let's see how it plays out but I personaly think* we will see higher low from there. (*anyway market doesn't care what I think ) Just because too many traders are "counting" this as a B-wave snapback rally, I am not saying atm it isn't but I would not bet the farm on it and I prefer another outcome Here is an "analogy" I am tracking for some time and if I am right we should be in the wave5 of 3 right now. Anyways just for fun you know price pays



Pattern: http://i.imgur.com/dB2dTxy.png

2010: closer look (the count there is only for ilustration of similarity it is not the right "count" as the 2009-10 leg was in ending diagonal)

The attachment SPX-1b.png is no longer available

Current cycle:

The attachment SPX-1a.png is no longer available

And game plan if the price stays above 1757

The attachment SPX-1.png is no longer available

So in my opinion we are right now heading into "XX" after forming an right shoulder with pullback to 1780-70 but as I said price pays so let's focus on setups

[koolblue]

Another cautionary missive from Goldman Sachs
"Our Global Leading Indicator [GS’s proprietary index, a measure used as a proxy for global growth] now suggests that the period of accelerated growth ended in September of 2013."
“…the most recent weakness, while not unusual and still not alarming, is likely a fair reflection of the current macro landscape.”
“While Goldman and most other shops across the Street don't expect the slowdown to persist, the worry is that recent volatility in financial markets could feed back into the real economy, and the slowdown could enter a new phase.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman- ... own-2014-2

LOL,

File this under the why the "big boyz" always win department...last week pit traders were wondering who made a large bullish bet on the market via a large purchase of qqq calls..." note out saying bad weather not that much influence on bad jobs data – slowing economy is. Well, you know how this, Goldman public comments go. They win – we lose! If you recall, earlier in the week we posted not huge, but decent buyer in the [QQQ] – well that buyer turned out to be Goldman."

[BullBear52x]

To me it looks at though resistance around SPX 1803 is crucial. If SPX manages to break that ceiling and to close higher once or twice we can assume that higher prices lie ahead...

The attachment SPX1803.png is no longer available

Interesting chart with that ratio BB think the sell spot could fit into my view around +-1810 SPX. Gonna be good R/R so let's see how it plays out but I personaly think* we will see higher low from there.



Pattern: http://i.imgur.com/dB2dTxy.png

KeiZai 1810 resistance.
Uempel 1803 resistance.
It is what it is department 1807 resistance.

This chart sees all of those confluence resistances.

[pezhead9000]

Fat-pitch supports BT2ndFD

Plethora of charts to support this thesis:
http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2014/02/t ... k.html?m=1

[pezhead9000]

Bonddad Weekly Macro
"If it weren't for the positive turn in several of the long leading indicators in the last few weeks, and that 4th quarter corporate profits look like they will be a positive, I would look at this report as indicating the start of an economic downturn. Weakness has spread throughout the indicators with few exceptions. The decline in monthly auto sales, factory orders, and the ISM manufacturing index taken together also indicate weakness. The decline in unit labor costs in the fourth quarter is also unwelcome, indicating corporations continued to refuse to share gains with employees.

Winter, of course, happens every year, but this winter has been the coldest for about a decade in much of the northeast and midwest. The YoY decline in gas usage is the "tell." So I *do* think there is some validity to the "weather excuse." Nevertheless, if this poor showing continues after the winter weather breaks, then I will have to do some serious re-evaluation."

http://community.xe.com/forum/xe-market ... ll-edition

[pezhead9000]

SPRINGHEEL_JACK supports the Hammer reversal candle.
"That bullish candle is a bottoming/reversing candlestick, albeit one that needs confirmation the following week."
http://slopeofhope.com/2014/02/hammer-time.html

[fehro]

To me it looks at though resistance around SPX 1803 is crucial. If SPX manages to break that ceiling and to close higher once or twice we can assume that higher prices lie ahead...

50d SMA = 1809ish. 20d SMA = 1804.25 so a little extra wiggle room?

[xfradnex]

To me it looks at though resistance around SPX 1803 is crucial. If SPX manages to break that ceiling and to close higher once or twice we can assume that higher prices lie ahead...

50d SMA = 1809ish. 20d SMA = 1804.25 so a little extra wiggle room?

I have 1806.21 for a gap and 1-13 has a good low of 1815.52 and bunch of highs and lows at around 1811 within the last month before 1-13. I agree that the ceiling can make a good floor if it is crossed.
Nice new Gap at 1776.01.

[TWT]

$FDAX_F : The internal structure suggets that this is a countertrend rebound

[TWT]

$EURUSD: As well as the DAX it is unfolding a corrective rebound

[pezhead9000]

COTS Timer: Green light for S&P, NASDAQ, Gold & Silver
Red light for Oil

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... n_GB#gid=0