02/15/2014 Weekend Update

[BullBear52x]

Busy weekend here. keep it simple side of thing, I see no weakness to call out to. overbought short term but not close to being bearish.

Weekly $NYSI is bullish.

Weekly hammer buy is confirmed.

Moving forward, bullls need keep momentum alive. a trade below daily 20/50 DMA this time will be a screaming sell, trading above bull can laugh all the way to the bank

weekly loss will keep LH intact, but to set a screaming sell it must trade below 1738

Monthly red Heiken Ashi is no go for bulls, white bar is required here.

[Al_Dente]

The Soros SPY put, from Friday’s disclosure (as of 45 days ago). Also his $25 million call position on the gold miners ETF.
The zh spin:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-1 ... 13-billion

Here SEC/Edgar shows all Soros's holdings disclosed on his 13F, filed Friday 2/14/14
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/ ... oTable.xml

[BullBear52x]

sector watch, yellow high lighted are the weakest link.

[Al_Dente]

TWTR lockup expires this week
“Twitter employees may elect to sell as much as 9.9 million shares….It represents just 1.8% of outstanding shares.”
“On May 6, the rest of the 474.7 million shares will start to be eligible for sale.”
According to a short seller: this week will be “…a small test for what will happen on May 6 when more people can sell.”

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/02/13/ ... -saturday/

[Friday’s volume was 12 million shares. According to Yahoo, the average daily volume over 3 months is 21 million shares. Last week on 6 Feb, the day of the earnings report, the volume was 61 million shares.]

[3DM]

Why does the need for health care and jobs lead to the conclusion that less regulation is best.

Proof that the regulated Canadian public system is better are the winter retirees who go to Florida but come back in spring to maintain eligibility for free care.

A friend is going through chemo and radiation now costing hundreds of thousands. Another friend was in a mental hospital for six months of acute care, costing at least six figures. Yet another gets a free defibrillator implant every five years costing the govt 25,000 each time.

How does less regulation help when that demand for care has no means to pay.

Research has shown that the Canadian public system is about 25 or 30% more efficient, achieving more for less money, largely achieved through less admin cost. I'm willing to bet Canada has more health care workers per capita because if the price is right people will come. The ability of a monopoly to provide the cheapest price is nothing new but keep in mind each hospital has an independent board.

Further proof that the free public system is better than the free market system is the TSX Composite closed at a new high this week...

[taggard]

The Soros SPY put, from Friday’s disclosure (as of 45 days ago). Also his $25 million call position on the gold miners ETF.
The zh spin:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-1 ... 13-billion

Here SEC/Edgar shows all Soros's holdings disclosed on his 13F, filed Friday 2/14/14
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/ ... oTable.xml

Thanks Al (for the all soros all the time).

To al and other readers once again i would just suggest that independent of any (1) political/social/economic differences or (2) any technical vs fundi trading concerns--that the real value of guys like soros drukenmiller and livermore is their thought process and approach to trading. if you look carefully at statements (such as the ones made by druckenmiller in the video referenced a few pages back) made by these guys--they are very simple absolute and actionable.

what is most notable is the absence of stats or modeling. i am not saying none is used--i am saying the emphasis is on something else.

as an example--consider einstenin's gedanken experiments (in this context gedenken is usually translated to "thought" so thought experiments however in this context really "story experiments" works even better really). soros makes the point over and over that "the market is not predictable". his approach to this to have "multiple scenarios". put another way he makes up multiple stories about possible future outcomes.

the object of this exercise is obviously not just one purpose. first there is the idea he is forced by doing this to confront multiple conflicting outcomes. this forces him to stay more open minded in the middle of things. Second he is literally feeling out the outcomes.

as an example of second point. Soros is known for making multiple trades which lose money. it used to drive various people working with him nuts. however the stated object to the trades was "to see how the market reacted". the other side of this (again as you can find in the whole back pain thing) is to see how soros himself reacted to the feeling of the trade. from soros' perspective--there is not that much difference between the two.

i keep bringing this stuff up every few months hoping people will respond a bit. i don't see technical trading as being in conflict with these sorts of ideas. generally in trading people are advised to pick up learn or develop some sort of system that "fits their character". so we have 1000s of approaches. my experience after looking at many ideas over 20 years--is that it's fairly easy to construct something that will more or less function 60-80% of the time. my guess is most people who are on this site actually trading for say 3-5 years can easily fit into this %. so the problem then becomes how to get the best return.

everyone agrees that this comes from "holding winners and bailing losers" yet not often discussed is how to amplify the winning trades.

to date i had one response to this directly from this site--and would love more. that one response was from a guy named cougar who mentioned that he added to wining positions to encourage himself to think along these lines. this idea was mentioned by livermore and generally is the idea in soros/druckenmiller trading with the caveat that often the soros position are fairly outsized at the "start". the quotes come from the point that soros also entered multiple trades that failed sometimes and thus figured out where to start in part by doing this.

i will fade back into the woodwork for a few months but just three thoughts.
(1) if there are so many approaches that work to a reasonable (6-8 out 10) degree--doesn't the determining factor have to be how they are implemented as opposed to the specific construction of the system model or idea?
(2) what is the limiting factor in the ecosystem of thought and action involved in implementing the ideas or trading systems etc?
(3) if there is a limiting factor (as there seems to be for many people)--why is is there? eg is it unnoticed--minimized--ignored or what have you--and if so why?

thanks for the effort al and others and have a good week trading

[Tutti]

Update of the long-term chart of most of our “Leading Economic Indicators.”
Quarterly

217leading econ ind.png

Key indicators that Janet Yellen uses to monitor the economy:
11 pages of charts [Morgan Stanley]
http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-s ... 014-2?op=1

Who is Michelle Smith? [A rare look inside the FED]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html

I didnt know you could chart quarterly time frames on stockcharts - mind if I sk you how you did that? PS v/pretty charts...

[Al_Dente]

I didnt know you could chart quarterly time frames on stockcharts - mind if I sk you how you did that? PS v/pretty charts...

At the very top left of your chart, next to “symbol”
Use the “Period” drop-down menu and select “quarterly”

[Al_Dente]

Thanks Al (for the all soros all the time). To al and other readers once again i would just suggest ....

Thanks Tag
Let’s say that indeed "the market is not predictable."
So u define your entry point and your stop.
If your trade works you pyramid up, and keep raising your stop.
If it doesn’t work, you get stopped out, report a “losing trade,” and move on to the next trade.
Some use “back pain indicators,” some use classic TA, and some use whatever works for them.

I don’t see your “multiple conflicting outcomes” or “reacted to the feeling of the trade.” You either win or lose on the trade, you learn more after each trade, and you move on. Sure it’s emotional; so is life.

I just try to stay on the side of the market NOW and when the market changes its mind, I will too.
There are many entry/exit points in the chart below. Hitting the perfect entry/exit would “amplify the winning trades.” For a trend-follower, getting in as soon as you can and exiting as soon as price screams that it’s time to exit also works. Is it that easy? No, but life isn’t easy either.

Best to you always
Al

[gappy]

To the moon June.

Capture.PNG

http://www.voxeu.org/article/padre-plan ... g-eurozone

[Al_Dente]

All Soros, all the time
ha ha LOL
For entertainment purposes only: the two charts below are % performance, two months, representing most of the holdings
reported by Soros, in excess of $100million per.
SPY is in purple for comparison, also because he held $1.3billion in SPY puts and $74million in SPY calls.

[taggard]

Thanks Al (for the all soros all the time). To al and other readers once again i would just suggest ....

Thanks Tag
Let’s say that indeed "the market is not predictable."
So u define your entry point and your stop.
If your trade works you pyramid up, and keep raising your stop.
If it doesn’t work, you get stopped out, report a “losing trade,” and move on to the next trade.
Some use “back pain indicators,” some use classic TA, and some use whatever works for them.

I don’t see your “multiple conflicting outcomes” or “reacted to the feeling of the trade.” You either win or lose on the trade, you learn more after each trade, and you move on. Sure it’s emotional; so is life.

I just try to stay on the side of the market NOW and when the market changes its mind, I will too.
There are many entry/exit points in the chart below. Hitting the perfect entry/exit would “amplify the winning trades.” For a trend-follower, getting in as soon as you can and exiting as soon as price screams that it’s time to exit also works. Is it that easy? No, but life isn’t easy either.

Best to you always
Al

217thirty.png

[taggard]

oops--just wanted to say thanks al good luck.

[DellGriffith]

Why does the need for health care and jobs lead to the conclusion that less regulation is best.

I don't think this is the proper forum for a debate on it. But someone asked for a view on gold, and I gave it.

My view is gold will be in a bull market until we start cutting regulations in many economic sectors. We tried massive spending and hiking regulations in the 60s into the mid 70s, and it failed. Then we finally tried cutting regulations and going huge pro-business in the late 1970s and it helped get us out of our malaise and helped kill the gold bull. We're just repeating history, imo., and currently in the 60s-mid 70s phase. We apparently have to learn the hard way all over again.

If you want economic growth, if you want jobs, you cut regulations. Period.

Thanks for your opinion. I see it is different. You have some good points and it is appreciated.

[Sleeperz]

Lots of people are coming to use the Canadian health system. That is why there is a shortage of doctors/GPs and long wait lists.
They can not afford to increase the healthcare since there is only a limited amount of $$$. In Canadian universities they train more foreign doctors than Canadians who have to go abroad for training. Then they come back to Canada and still can not get employed.
To combat fraud in healthcare new Carecards with pictures and other copy prevention items are on the new cards.
The government maintains a monopoloy on healthcare and will not allow private healthcare to decrease the wait lists.

Research has shown that the Canadian public system is about 25 or 30% more efficient, achieving more for less money, largely achieved through less admin cost. I'm willing to bet Canada has more health care workers per capita because if the price is right people will come. The ability of a monopoly to provide the cheapest price is nothing new but keep in mind each hospital has an independent board.

Further proof that the free public system is better than the free market system is the TSX Composite closed at a new high this week...

[xfradnex]

Approaching a strong resistance line and record High.

[TWT]

$USDJPY: A countertrend wave (B) should be underway

[TWT]

$YG_F : Gap at 1318.10 could be a s/t exhaustion gap

[uempel]

This is going to be an interesting week. Should SPX manage to close above 1850/60 next Friday ellipses will emit a very, very bullish signal If SPX does not manage to crack 1850 and doesn't close higher on Friday some kind of a top is in...

[KeiZai]

Sometimes is better to focus on the bigger picture and not focusing on ST pullbacks/OB readings etc...(this is one thing I have to improve going forward ) In the bigger picture there is no change in my view this thing is going for new highs imo viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1204&p=154293#p154293

ST take: