02/22/2014 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

The interesting part is smart money has added more short, not extreme enough so guess the rally may still have rooms.

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more accumulation. The chart doesn't tell future only confirms what happens now, so nothing special.

I see nothing on AAII and II. I'd like to see extremely extreme, for now both are far from extreme.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks. A good week. viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1212&p=155453#p155453

[Cobra]

preview of the next week's stock picks. viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1217&p=155454#p155454

[koolblue]

Well its sure been a very interesting first two months of the year..certainly very different from 2013 (at least so far!). heres a long term look followed by some shorter term looks..

[uempel]

Nice to see that BPSPX and SPX are telling us the same story: next week the move is either up with a jump or ....

SPX:

BPSPX (Percentage of the S&P 500 stocks which are on a P&F buy signal; if the number of bullish S&P 500 components rises SPX tends to rise too...):

[rhight]

A link to the actual "Pig In The Python" report from BofA that making the rounds in the financial press/blogosphere

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/p ... errill.pdf

[Al_Dente]

I need to see more volume moving into advancing stocks
Otherwise the selling pressure from Friday will continue

[Al_Dente]

Tech has been strong: COMPQ and NDX and SOX made new highs last week

The recurring question is here:

[Al_Dente]

Some bullet points from Richard Wyckoff’s interviews with Jesse Livermore, 1921:
1. Only trade the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors.
2. Stocks have seasons. Know which ones are currently in fashion.
3. Anticipate future trends.
4. Get plenty of sleep.
5. Have a full understanding of the current economic situation.
6. Stay away from other people and influences to keep your mind clear.
7. The big money is in the long swings.
8. Let the tape tell you what is really going on with accumulation or distribution.
9. Only trade a stock with a potential 10 point swing coming within a reasonable time.
10. Get out of a stock if it moves against you 3 or 4 points.
11. Pyramid buy your wins, not your losses.
12. Sell stocks that are not moving up; buy the current best prospect; keep your capital liquid and working.

"There is no magic. Investigate before you invest; look before you leap.”

[rhight]

First off, I'm not a bull or bear, I trade both sides, but I am contrary, and that has caught me off-sides when I'm not careful. That said, my decision matrix gave me permission to sell/short the past 2 days, for a swing south. As mentioned before, my system can be fooled by consolidations that turn into continuation rather than reversal patterns, as has often happened during this QE fueled bull (say that 10 times fast.) And QE continues, so you may officially consider me a fool. But, if you don't trade your system, you may as well not have one! And so, I share a trade, that I may learn from group's admonitions and derision.

[BullBear52x]

Simplify

Long term is in bullish consolidation phase.

Short term confirmed bearish trend.

You know where your money is, if you like your money you can keep it. I know it's old, but good joke can be funny for long time.

[daytradingES]

10:47 PM 2/22/2014

I changed the screen res part way through so I hope I didn't muck it up

5 min babble....
http://screencast.com/t/8Cas6Bn4caJ

GLTA

PS I did line up the boxes (purple and green to the low and highs) but the copy and save has shifted them - but you'll notice the are correct on the video.....

[uempel]

A link to the actual "Pig In The Python" report from BofA that making the rounds in the financial press/blogosphere

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/p ... errill.pdf

Good stuff, thanks rhight...

(Neither me nor my computer likes your name: it's a contradiction to have a name like "rhight" - if your name was "whrong" it might make sense, but "rhight" my suggestion: why not change your name to "whrong" )

[rhight]

A link to the actual "Pig In The Python" report from BofA that making the rounds in the financial press/blogosphere

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/p ... errill.pdf

Good stuff, thanks rhight...

(Neither me nor my computer likes your name: it's a contradiction to have a name like "rhight" - if your name was "whrong" it might make sense, but "rhight" my suggestion: why not change your name to "whrong" )

You need to turn your spell checker off Your computer shouldn't be bossing you around anyways! Now, I've never claimed to be right, as one of my adopted premises is "you never know". I used to "believe" in "positions" that I took in the market, and they would cost me dearly. Now I don't believe anything, and it's been working out much better That's not totally true, I do have to have some belief in my chosen indicators, experience, and ability to read the market or I wouldn't ever take a risk, but it's calculated and I'm ready to jump ship when the current moves against me. And if it's a shake out move, like a pop-n-drop, I'm ready to shake back in. It's all a dance, and I'm not calling the tune (GS and JPM are!)

[rhight]

Some bullet points from Richard Wyckoff’s interviews with Jesse Livermore, 1921:

Good stuff. "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas helped me a lot

[rhight]

Not many on the board this weekend. No one must be anxious, which must be a good thing . . . or is it?
Last week we touched on an inverted yield curve as a predictor of recession, and whereas we haven't had an inverted curve, the spread did narrow, and these two recent articles by Tom McClellan touch on that subject :

http://pragcap.com/yield-curves-message-for-gdp
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... arket_low/

[xfradnex]

I will state the obvious. We had a double top formation last month (Second peak higher than first-barely). This month we have another top almost fully formed, which is currently slightly lower than the last months top (see BullBear's chart above). It looks like the bounce was to quick/high to be sustained. If we get below 1825 (a lot of revisits above this), my guess is that we will move to the 50dma at around 1815 for some type of a bounce. If dead cat, then you know the story.
I expect that some "unexpectantly" good new will come from the gov't which will push this baby over the hump. Yellen Speaks at 10:00 Thursday. http://mam.econoday.com/ + Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims.

[TWT]

$EURUSD: This corrective advance could extend higher

[TWT]

$FDAX_F: So far a sideways pattern leaning to the bullish side

[TWT]

$USDJPY: This pattern remains bearish