03/13/2014 Live Update

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. possible minor support here .. mind the lower open gap.. and interday gap

[Mr. BachNut]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26564846

I'll refrain from comment ...

[BullBear52x]

a retest of H&S target it's continuation of a chart pattern, a bounce here if any will not sustain.

[RedKite]

The last of my US topping signals (swing) was triggered yesterday, that one being a peak on BPNYA RS.
Other markets such as UK and DAX are already well into a bear.
Cyclically I don't expect a bottom until the end of the month, though it might be a little earlier. Half-Wall cycles of around 8 weeks have been pretty reliable for more than a year now.
Are we going to do the same as January? In January we did a leg down before FOMC, flattened around FOMC, then did a second leg down a few days after. It looks possible.
We're due a big fall (so say the 200 day breadth indicators) but on balance I still don't think this is the one, I'm currently holding out for end of April for the big one. Small one now, recovery in April, then the big down. Some risk though that if China keeps on getting worse it will be now rather than later.

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:43 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ay-update/

[Heck]

Bye guys, no stockcharts, no updates

VIX was 14.24% this AM when AAPL, XOM and GOOG at the money options all had higher implied volatilities than 14.24%. ISEE ALL and Equity opening long calls/puts were 199% and 280% at 10:10 AM EDT, suggesting silly money bullish, buying calls, the wrong way corrigans.

On the other hand, at 9:50 AM EDT, ETF and Index opening long calls/puts, with implied volatility for the at the money calls at 9.91% and the puts at 15.10% suggest smart money buying twice as many puts as calls, although puts are expensive and ETF/Index jumped to 125%, putting new sells on hold until further clarification.

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

Been doing this since 1973 CBOE, taught options at a leading West Coast U, so it takes a while to grok.
The basic idea is buy low with the smart money and sell high with the amateurs...

Thank you for the explanation. This is a chart that I've kept for a few years, even though I don't trade options, and it seems to be agreeing with what you are saying, especially what happened on 3/5, with high Put volume on CPCI and the polar opposite on CPCE. When looking back 8 years, the type of 2 month negative divergence shown has often preceded significant corrections. Would you agree with that assessment?

Yes, thanks for the chart

Amateurs get even more bullish after the top

[Cobra]

vol surge, biggest red bar, so should be a round here first. not yet decisively break yesterday low so the battle is on, bulls are not over yet.

[gappy]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26564846

I'll refrain from comment ...

Another slant. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-02-140214.html Washington wants regime change in the Ukraine for one reason only; in the wider New Great Game in Eurasia context, that would be the rough equivalent of Texas defecting from the US and becoming a Russian ally.

[Al_Dente]

Currencies, countries, everyone is showing the pain
30m

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX 15m

[fehro]

VIX 15m... possible resistance... also near top BBand on the daily

[TWT]

$SPX: Follow up of the DZZ count

[fehro]

VIX daily

[fehro]

testing previous highs near 1850... SPX daily, 20d mid BBand

[MrMiyagi]

Bull has Russian flu...

[BullBear52x]

I am checking out, super nice day out. next few hours will no be a good trading anyhow.

Peace! will be baak.

[finman66]

Looking like that $184.91 P-bar is a strong possibility to be reached soon.

[BullBear52x]

greed kills

[Al_Dente]

No double bottom support
Nydec > 2000
Trin has been behind the bears all day