03/19/2014 Live Update

[Out of Bounds]

Miyagi, some elder people are wise They might be slow, but they sure have lots of info stashed in their brains and if they are smart it can be retrieved - sometimes slowly, but it sure is up there. I feel more comfortable with elder statesmen or presidents or whatever, unless they are clinging desperately to office. E.g. Italian Presidents are always much wiser and better than the Italian Prime Ministers who are often quite foolish... Same in the UK, a long string of public school boys like Blair, Brown, Major, Cameron versus the Queen who's about 90ish... I like elder women

Every new generation thinks that they have the best answers and that more experienced people should get out of the way so they can implement their new ideas. Then they get older and wiser and have to explain it to their kids, just like their parents did to them.

[Cobra]

rebound looks strong, may have legs.

[gappy]

Good and bad in everything, why we have free will not free market.

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http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/

[fehro]

VIX daily... SPX trying to hold it's 20d, so is AAPL 20d/50d...

[uempel]

Two important messages:

1.) I love Miyagi. Note that he once wrote that the style of his charts was strongly influenced by his very critical wife. So he's definitely not a misogynist

2.) time signal for tomorrow at the opening - could be an acceleration to the downside or a short squeeze. I guess the futures after the close and Asian markets will give us a clue ...

[Mr. BachNut]

Message to those who have a broker with access to Eurex:

DAX volatility was great today: DAX moved in-between 9326 and 9223 - that's a range of more than one (for those who only speak Spanish - uno ) percent.

The same intraday action by SPX would be a range of approx 1855 to 1873.

Last but not least: DAX has many idiosyncrasies. One of them is the 100 point range. Corrections tend to be 100, 200 or 300 points. Bigger corrections go for 400, 500, 800, 900 and so forth. These figures are not set in stone - but DAX traders seem to prefer these round numbers. Today's range was quite exemplary.

Seemed like a narrow range day with a slightly higher high and much higher low. Bull flag?

Yes BachNut, but DAX broke out (to the downside) of the channel which goes back to March 14th. Today's high at 8325 makes sense on a daily chart (not shown here) as a good-by kiss. As to what happens next - I guess it's up to Yellen and Putin to decide

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Interestingly, the high landed right smack in the middle of the resistance zone I marked the other day. Quite curious to see what tomorrow brings.

[DellGriffith]

OT but the trouble with being old today is that technology is advancing at an exponential pace. Its one thing to be old in 1835 when life didn't change that much. Today, new technology shatters old paradigms on a seemingly daily basis. Its ever harder to stay on top of the latest changes, and old information does out of date at a faster pace. New phenomenon like Napster, MySpace, and Bitcoin, emerge, explode, and die in a blink.

The conventional wisdom was peak oil less than 10 years ago. Pundits confidently and firmly asserted oil was done as a resource. Now, fracking came along and we got an oil glut. A gallon on gas might drop under $1 again before its over.

Things change so much and so quickly. Being old doesn't help imo.

[taggard]

this is from an college q/a with Bernanke and shows what's really going on. that the fed is by nature political and in effect decisions have to be made so as not to lose power to congress etc. the problem in life is that a group of people can only move as fast as everyone in the group. in this case the real constraints are not even the fed but the feds concerns about losing power. so exactly who is in power is less important than the general beliefs surrounding this person--at least at this point in history.

But I thought a really interesting one was this: 'If you knew in 2006 what you know now, what step or steps would you have taken then to prevent or ameliorate the financial crisis and subsequent severe downturn?'"

Bernanke: "Well that's a really unfair question. I mean, the reality is that everybody - every policymaker has to make - this is the nature of policy - it has to be made in very, very foggy conditions with very imperfect information - a lot of uncertainty. So, in order to do anything, I think I would not only have to know everything in advance, everyone else would have to know I knew everything in advance. In other words, if I went out and started saying - all of the sudden I'm arbitrarily raising capital requirements by five percentage points, the banks would say 'What!' and it would be very difficult to get Congress and the other regulators and so on and so on to agree. I mean I think the crisis was very complex, involved many many issues. One of the concerns, I want to respond indirectly to a point..., the usefulness of macro-prudential-type measures.

I think one of the practical questions is, even if you think you've got macro-prudential measures that work, can you put them in place quickly enough and responsibly enough, preemptively enough. And I think that's one of the things - the Bank of England is working to try to find mechanisms for more rapid response, so to speak. And I think that's one of the real challenges. For example, before the crisis the Fed put in new guidance on commercial real estate (CRE) for banks, which strengthened the criteria for risk-management - and said you shouldn't have too much CRE on your balance sheet, etc. etc. That process took more than two years of negotiations and discussions - and sending it out to the banks, and the banks have time to implement. In order to make this work - the macro-prudential things to work - you're going to have to have a more nimble system. And I think this is a big part of this. So the answer to the question that Bill raised is that, I'm sure there were some things that could have been done but unless everyone collectively knew what was going to happen and was willing to work together cooperatively to take those necessary steps, it's not obvious that you could have avoided it."

[Claire]

It may be wise to examine your assumptions about age and women

[MrMiyagi]

Holy Sheizer!! DIP BUYERS?

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:44 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

vol surge, biggest bar, so might see pullback here first which might be bought later.

[ALdaytrade]

I would not be surprised if we returned to where we were before Janet Yellen started to speak today. So wait a bit before going short into tomorrow if you are not short already. Take some quick profit here, if you did go short.
In my most humble opinion.

So here we are, maybe ending up where we were before Janet Yellen started to speak...

Going short for tomorrow morning anyone?

[fehro]

SPX daily...holding trend line... 20d... 60m a little more bearish looking.. broke a wedge.. retest top of a channel.. interesting if we get a hammer on the 60m

[Cobra]

pullback as expected. only 8 min left otherwise I'd say it'd be bought.

[Cobra]

guess that's it for today. a red fomc day usually means red the next day until recently. Now simply 50 to 50. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Cobra]

I would not be surprised if we returned to where we were before Janet Yellen started to speak today. So wait a bit before going short into tomorrow if you are not short already. Take some quick profit here, if you did go short.
In my most humble opinion.

So here we are, maybe ending up where we were before Janet Yellen started to speak...

Going short for tomorrow morning anyone?

Good call, thanks. How did you know we'd back to where Yellen started to speak? And looks like you think tomorrow would be down, how do you know?

[jademann]

Cobra your chart makes me bearish.

I Wanted to ask if good TA guys always read a chart the same way???

[DumbMoney]

$TICK -1600 .. lowest since Nov 2011

Hi,Mr Fehro,could you please tell me which time frame is the $tick=-1600?And which is the date on Nov 2011?Thank you very much.

[Cobra]

Cobra your chart makes me bearish.

I Wanted to ask if good TA guys always read a chart the same way???

You mean always read chart bearish?