03/26/2014 Live Update

[Cobra]

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I'm neutral. It's the 2nd time testing the 03/21 rebound high, so key time.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ay-update/

[gappy]

Vote for Cobra. glta

fx.PNG

[uempel]

I'm not yet quite serious about this inverse H&S - but let's wait and see. By the way, Miyagi has P-Bars pointing to SPY 188.07 and SPX 189.01

[flumanchu]

Where are we with POMO?

Looks like they wanted to take the less volatile route to make sure we have a good end of quarter.

Here's projection from the weekend (1876 at March 31):

Fri, Mar 21, 2014 Mon, Mar 24, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion --> -6 -> 1860
Mon, Mar 24, 2014 Tue, Mar 25, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 11/15/2024 - 02/15/2031 $0.50 - $0.75 billion --> -10 -> 1850
Tue, Mar 25, 2014 Wed, Mar 26, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion -> -6 -> 1844
Wed, Mar 26, 2014 Thu, Mar 27, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 05/15/2021 - 02/15/2024 $2.25 - $2.75 billion -> +10 -> 1854
Thu, Mar 27, 2014 Fri, Mar 28, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 12/31/2018 - 11/30/2019 $3.75 - $4.50 billion --> +28 -> 1882
Fri, Mar 28, 2014 Mon, Mar 31, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion -> -6 -> 1876

$1.8 billion / day needed to hold the market even.

From last Friday, we started at 1866. Yesterday (tuesday), we ended at appr 1866. So 3.6 billion POMO used up so far.

I'm looking at the end date above and max POMO amount. That would mean as of yesterday they used up thru Wed, and .4 billion from Thursday. That leaves appr 8 billion over the next 4 days.

They can easily hold the market here thru Monday. However, just know if they goose it above 1876, it's coming back down.

Projection is 1876 for March 31, and appr 1790 for End of April - all based on POMO.

.

[fehro]

SPX 15m.. possible resistance

[uempel]

Update:

[Cobra]

gap up then reversed down 3 days in a row, I don't think today would be the same gain, although so far it looks like a range day.

[TWT]

$SPX: This corrective up leg is approaching a top. Next pullback will give clues

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:04 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ay-update/

[Mr. BachNut]

Net short. Long and short.
Yesterday, instead of managing my positions like I was supposed to, I went skiing with my collegiate son instead.
It was awesome! Very high velocities were attained.

My summation signal remains down. SPX is showing some stability, but the R2K continued to decay.
My composite trend signal remains up but unconfirmed. No showing much intention either way.

As noted yesterday, we are trendless for now.
My orientation has been to work between neutral and net short until I get some confirmation out of my trend signal.
That may not be the optimal tactic, but it seems rational.
I am a little behind the curve as a played hookie yesterday and wasn't around to buy the dip.
If I don't hit the slopes again today, I'll be oriented to work the long side unless something goes awry.
As day/swing trading is not my thing, I don't plan to get too clever.

I am watching what may be a bullish channel forming. I'll be looking for reactions at various lines.

[fehro]

INDEX 5m COMPQ, RUT triangles?.. others wedges

[gappy]

gap up then reversed down 3 days in a row, I don't think today would be the same gain, although so far it looks like a range day.

Back to the ole "gap it up overnight" ZIRP funded policy. The last two runs showing the diminishing returns though as cash market then sells off some. Fed cred is declining. Daily chart.

Capture.PNG

[Cobra]

if my guess today is different is right then bears are over now.

[Cobra]

good new for bears is we have another morning hourly black bar.

[uempel]

Intraday Bullish Percentages are all flat - except BPNYA up 0.24%.

[DellGriffith]

Gold got slammed again this morning. really need it to keep dropping too.

[uempel]

Yesteday's target is close ...

[fehro]

Intraday Bullish Percentages are all flat - except BPNYA up 0.24%.

GOLD Daily ...Still trying to hold above 50d, 200d.... possible descending triangle... or invs H&S ... all depending on how and where it bounces...

[uempel]

Update: