Partial Long. Was short.
My summation signal remains up for the SPX and neutral for the R2K.
My composite trend signal remains up by a hair. It could turn neutral or perhaps even down today.
On Friday, I sold the NFP pop following Cobra's NFP open higher close lower model.
That it worked as well as it did was a complete surprise. I closed it out this morning.
Also on Friday, I started assembling long once price got back to the middle of the prior trading range and have added lower this morning.
Basically, I am honoring my up signals above at good prices. Could be a dumb idea.
If Friday was the initiation of a down trend, these longs are likely to fail. I may bail out on a bounce if my signals deteriorate further today.
Otherwise, stops will be the defense.
The bulls have a problem. We spent most of March in a trading range, and when they went to squeeze the accumulated short buy stops on Friday, it failed big.
Now there is a probably a pile of accumulated sell stops below the bottom of the March trading range. This also happens to be the current location of the 50 day MA.
The stage is set for a battle there that the bulls could lose.
I am long at the moment having honored some signals, but I think the reality is that we are still negotiating the settlement of the March trading range.
So, my intention is to try and stay nimble. My signals held up better than expected Friday, but I'll be watching closely how they evolve day by day this week.
I could bail on these longs at any time.