04/11/2014 Live Update

[Cobra]

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list HERE. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks! If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday.

• Please, again, all my calls in the daily live update is for intra-day only, they're absolutely invalid when the closing bell rings. If you're interested in the forecast for days and weeks, Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.

• Personal attack on any board members won't be tolerated. Please limit your topic to trade related only.

• Please no direct link to your personal web site or blog. You must post rich contents here. You can, however, put link to your personal web site or blog as your signature.

• I'm very busy during the trading hour, so your question posted on board might not be answered. For a guaranteed answer to your question please send email to [email protected].

========================================================================================================================================================================

Consolidation overnight then breakdown, this bear may still have legs.

[gappy]

fx.PNG

Capture.PNG

glta

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/04 ... ay-update/

[uempel]

Old channel ...

[fehro]

SPX 60m.. mind the morning gap..lower red channel.. divergence starting to set up on MacD

[gappy]

usd/yen daily dump @/just prior to Euro cash open.

yen.PNG

Not working too good for them lately.

[fehro]

SPX 60m other view.. hammer setting up on the hourly.. bounce fill gap.. back to neckline? two targets on H&S depending on where you measure it.. neckline is key

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/04 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

VIX 60m popped above downtrend.. daily tagging upper BBand

[Cobra]

morning hourly hollow red.

[uempel]

Checking channels ...

[fehro]

SPX daily outside of BBand mind channel lines

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:12 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/04 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

2nd test of day low, wait to see if bulls could make a double bottom here.

[TWT]

$SPX: Possible scenario

[fehro]

Stop Looking for “the Story” Why Markets Are Falling

Whenever we see any sort of disruption in markets an explanation usually follows. The headlines will explain that “Markets are going up/down because of this good/bad thing.” News anchors will solemnly intone why the volatility is significant and what it means for one thing or another.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/04/st ... e-falling/

[Al_Dente]

Banks and JPM hit hard (bad eps)
This is XLF hourly

[Mr. BachNut]

Short. Added to position yesterday at pretty good prices.
Profit stop is on.

My summation signal is neutral.
My composite trend signal is down.

Bears finally broke the bottom of the trading range, and this morning, NYMO broke below it's range too (not vigorously though).
I have tentatively marked the recent high on my chart as a cycle high but would like to see a new low close to confirm. I have also marked some possible target areas near and far.
As my position is in good shape and risk free stop wise, I should shut down the computer to avoid tick watching and go watch the Masters on TV.
The market will likely bounce at some point, and the trembling hand will sacrifice the shot at an asymmetric return to lock in a small one and avoid a round trip.
I admit my hand is twitching. With OPEX ahead, and the VIX still too low IMO, I am a paranoid bear. A round trip is a distinct possibility. I am not a great swing trader.
Put calls have been going bonkers.
My plan is to do nothing (my favorite plan) but if I get weak I may work an upswing (Friday afternoon rip?) if things start to move (probably a mistake).
I am keen to see whether we get a strong or weak close. Who's confident to hold over the weekend?

I think the opportunity for the bears for now may lie in the hands of the margin clerks, who are quietly tapping away on their calculators. (I know everything is done by computer now, but I like the image.)
If they start making some calls, we'll see it in the tape.

[Al_Dente]

PAGING FEHRO
I may have drawn the H&S (blue) incorrectly on XLF
Revised to pink
Can you confirm blue or pink?