07/08/2011 Intraday Watering

[jamesmith]

next bar is key, bears need a L2 to short, no idea if it's a good idea though.

i entered short...praying~~~ :shock:

[Cobra]

sorry it's not L2 short, but may be a good bear entry, I'm not sure...

[uempel]

This chart is a mess and I should clean it up - don't have any time now. It shows that yesterday's top at 1356.48 is a pivot point.

[rhight]

Something to consider from a longer term perspective. Not proclaiming, just saying, we need to consider the possibility of a cyclical top forming here.

[uempel]

SPX trying to stay above the 5 DMA (195 MA on this 10 min chart), now at 1337.

[nonabear]

Also from a longer term perspective, other than 2005 and 2006, it is much more common to have a lower low (after the 1st spike lower) on the charts than a higher low after a year long advance. See the lows in October of 97-00 and each made a lower low in an uptrend. Same happened in 2007 (aug lower vs. March low) and then once the rally started in 2009, we had a lower low in July of 2010 vs. the May low). No lower low in June of 11 vs. March of 11...so we may just get a lower low (below June) before we see a new high. Seemed impossible yesterday, but go back and look at the longer term charts.

[uempel]

Something to consider from a longer term perspective. Not proclaiming, just saying, we need to consider the possibility of a cyclical top forming here. Consider the following chart, and the steady decline in volume during the course of this year. From a StockCharts chart school article on H&S tops (other sources also discuss this) :

"Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. This decrease in volume and the new high of the head, together, serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder."

In the age of high-frequency trading volume has lost its significance - too difficult to assess what's going on when half the trading volume is for positions which are merely held for seconds...

[Cobra]

well, I see Ascending Triangle here, so bears are in danger now.

[Cobra]

it was a failed short, not L2 short, so no blame here. now hard to call, need see if breakout is strong or not, either bear flag or ascending triangle are in the forming.

[stingrey]

Could be bear flag forming...not long or short here...and island reversal possible not good for longs...

[cougar]

Vibrations and Time Cycles revisited:

[Sqwii]

Agree with Cobra - that its possible we go higher. But for now I've got daily sell signals on all indexes today confirmed with the move down. Its possible we "bounce" on monday , but after that I expect further selling pressure. VIX looks good to go + USD looks like could break 1 year downtrend.

Still potential topping HS pattern - so next week should tell - if we continue down I expect panic selling to happend..

We broke uprising wedge today (potential backtest line monday) but not sure.

[pidge66]

it was a failed short, not L2 short, so no blame here. now hard to call, need see if breakout is strong or not, either bear flag or ascending triangle are in the forming.

Cobra, interesting to see that your target is at 50 fib retracement till yesterday's high.

[Sqwii]

I think the dollar could breakout big near term....

http://chart.ly/yd5a5dx

Not good for markets.... overall

[Cobra]

it was a failed short, not L2 short, so no blame here. now hard to call, need see if breakout is strong or not, either bear flag or ascending triangle are in the forming.

Cobra, interesting to see that your target is at 50 fib retracement till yesterday's high.

not a target yet, must breakout first. Ascending Triangle usually is continuation pattern, so chances of being it a little bit lower than bear flag.

[greenback]

Seems that Cobra's two legs up are over ...

[Sqwii]

Cobra - look at monthly chart of UUP and FXE.

To me Euro FXE looks like it could have a nasty leg down over some months , with the dollar about to breakout in a big way and a little uptrend to start for a few months possible.

If so - markets should react to the downside... all imo

[cougar]

USO was stopped at first support (Fan line). Sold 1/2 of puts. Waiting for some clarity whe OIL market closes...

[ctu688]

Vibrations and Time Cycles revisited:

Hi Cougar,
What is the time frame for your next bigger cycle down as shown in the blue color?

[uempel]

Update, but I'm clueless as to where the market is heading. I'm waiting for leads.