07/08/2011 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

First time posting here, tremendous respect for Cobra and a shout-out to many folks here posting thoughtful views and analysis!

I am not surprised to see a lot of buy-dips going on considering how bullish the market has been in the last 2 weeks--as usual a lot of us are brain-washed by the short-term trend, as we were in June. Today's job report is simply atrocious and I suspect the now-priced-in rosy ER season might not fare well either. I have been closely watching the DJ U.S. TSM (float) figure to gauge big boys actions, it was negative for both July 6 and 7, and seems to getting more negative today. Bears are still on life-support, but there is a chance that bulls might be closes to a cliff than they are aware of

Thanks and welcome aboard!

[shumushu]

First time posting here, tremendous respect for Cobra and a shout-out to many folks here posting thoughtful views and analysis!

I am not surprised to see a lot of buy-dips going on considering how bullish the market has been in the last 2 weeks--as usual a lot of us are brain-washed by the short-term trend, as we were in June. Today's job report is simply atrocious and I suspect the now-priced-in rosy ER season might not fare well either. I have been closely watching the DJ U.S. TSM (float) figure to gauge big boys actions, it was negative for both July 6 and 7, and seems to getting more negative today. Bears are still on life-support, but there is a chance that bulls might be closes to a cliff than they are aware of

Welcome to the forums.

[uempel]

Quarterly results next week or QE 2.5 might put the bullish action back on track - but if SPX does not bust 1356.48 very soon this pattern is a top.

[stingrey]

15 min chart looks clearly a bear flag, but I really have no confidence in calling bear case those days.

Likely bear flag with island reversal is not bullish...expecting more down in days ahead.

The 'boys' burned the shorts for the last two weeks, now they are going to burn the longs....

[Cobra]

OK, I believe I scored twice - rebound then down, now let's see the 3rd part which is rebound, usually I miss the 3rd score.

[cougar]

The appetite for IWM Aug ATM P increased in the latest 10 min…

[Sqwii]

agree uempel- if they dont take out SPX 1350 very soon today or Monday... then we have a near term top in and downside ahead.... lets see

[Dow Trader]

OK, I believe I scored twice - rebound then down, now let's see the 3rd part which is rebound, usually I miss the 3rd score.

could be a CUP bottom ?

[greenback]

OK, I believe I scored twice - rebound then down, now let's see the 3rd part which is rebound, usually I miss the 3rd score.

Good call!

[Cobra]

this chart shows how I usually hatch my evil plan. For now we need a rebound point to know where to actually put those tinted area.

[rhight]

A Positive Price Reversal is apparent on the SPX Daily, 60 min., and 15 min RSI(14) (a powerful combo when it occurs in multiple time frames) that calculates out to 1359. This implies a marginal new high in the near term (1 or 2 days). We'll see.

[Anaconda]

I have to say, with technical analysis painting a stalemate IMOI, it's hard for me to rationalize a bullish market scenario, based on fundamentals, right now:

- Europe is a slow motion train wreck (Italy and Spain on deck for bailouts/restructuring)
- Unemployment, wages and demand picture all worsening
- Housing - worsening further
- Debt-ceiling discussions portend likely cost cutting (which exacerbates point 2, above)
- China has hit a wall - demand for commodities after 2 years of speculative buying will decline substantially
- QE seen for what it has been..finally?...a resounding disaster for all consumers, as cheap money has been used by banks to speculate up the bare necessities - oil, foods, etc.

Tie breaker for me says definitely don't buy any dips. Stay in cash to protect yourselves.
Good luck.
A

[Cobra]

good, the rebound shall be smaller than the tinted area, otherwise we need a new plan...

[stockcycle]

It may be a mini bull flag?

[Dow Trader]

I just went long in Dow with stop a close below 12320 and open target

[greenback]

The rebound is much weaker ...

[uempel]

Update:

[Cobra]

well, I'd agree all the bearish calls here, but purely from chart pattern, it's very rare for a car running on 200 mile per hour reverses all of sudden. From my understanding of TA is we should trade on high odds and this basically says that we'd try our best no to think that this time is different. So, maybe the market is about to crash, but until proven wrong, I cannot bet this 200 mile per hour car simply has reversed on just one day sharp pullback.

[PRI]

Update:

SPX25.png

Bearish (flag) and bullish? Could you elaborate please? Thank you!

[Mr. T]

Update:

SPX25.png

Bearish (flag) and bullish? Could you elaborate please? Thank you!

2nd that request