05/14/2014 Live Update

[soku]

VIX daily.. pressing lower BBand. SPX highs yesterday actually poked up and through it's upper BBand.. but closed back below it.

vix is cheap now. maybe another buy

[Varaha]

Re-post from 2 days ago:
(Update).

For what it's worth department:

I am getting an interesting signal for a long-term buy signal (using an MCMC model) that hinges only
on this week's behavior.
Assuming we close at around the current level (1895-ish), the line in the sand is that the SPX breaks
1900 and holds above that level for the rest of the week, including next Monday. More precisely, the
first realistic chance of a long-term buy signal occurs at the close next Monday, and that buy signal
occurs if, at the close of next Monday (5/12) the 15 day ma (of $SPX) is above 1887.38.

Or the buy signal occurs on Friday (5/16) if at that close the 15 day ma is above 1889.40. (Less likely ...)
Or the buy signal occurs on Thurs (5/15) if at that close the 15 day ma is above 1894.17. (Not realistic).
Or the buy signal occurs on Wedn (5/14) if at that close the 15 day ma is above 1893.36. (Not realistic!!).

So ..... as I watch this week unfold it is looking like the bearish scenario is becoming more likely --- i.e. by close
of Monday we get a 15 day ma (of $SPX) below 1887.38 at which point my (long term) algo spits out a SELL signal.
Unless we get a bone-rattling rally tomorrow and Friday.
(The 15 day ma is currently 1880.72).

[uempel]

every EW guy on the planet is expecting wave 5 higher, show me the money

So all the big boys are EW guys and they expect a fith - or can we write off the impact of bullish EW guys because they are not significant

[Cobra]

triangle, so bias is a little bit down (51%).

[TWT]

$SPX: This is a corrective pullback (I expect more upside)

[MrMiyagi]

tna

iwm

[MrMiyagi]

Still too many pBars down on SPY, only 1 hit. Lowest target is 188.00$
Same story with QQQ, low target is 86.84$

[Out of Bounds]

usd/jpy very low at 101.738

[Out of Bounds]

usd/jpy very low at 101.738

101.722

[gappy]

Hourly

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[Out of Bounds]

New bar - closer to the break

[gappy]

3 minute

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[gappy]

2 hour

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Bumpin the cloud Mr. Heck.

[fehro]

usd/jpy very low at 101.738

101.722

200d SMA 101.66

[gappy]

Bad medicine.

Capture.PNG

[fehro]

TLT making new highs over recent highs today... but also popping outside of the BBand

[BullBear52x]

every EW guy on the planet is expecting wave 5 higher, show me the money

So all the big boys are EW guys and they expect a fith - or can we write off the impact of bullish EW guys because they are not significant

I don't write off any thing and will not be surprise if it did. my mid to long term setup is still on a buy and dip will be bought for the mean time. for intraday trading today is not a buy day per my setup.

[fehro]

SPX 5m

[MrMiyagi]

spy

[Out of Bounds]

Lost my internet. Painter broke a splice. I nearly had a heart attack - ran over cut the wire and installed a new rg6 end and we are back in business. Sweating like a pig now.

I thought surely I would get it back on and find the market had broken UP and left me with a loss.