05/17/2014 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more distribution than accumulation now.

No change on the smart money chart.

I see nothing on AAII and II. I'd like to see extremely extreme, for now both are far from extreme.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1298&p=162804#p162804

[Cobra]

The preview of the next week's stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1305&p=162811#p162811

[Royal Flush]

Narrowed Bollinger Band on VIX shows potential for a market swing lower soon as has happened so many times before with narrow BBs.

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

[Al_Dente]

Omnibus daily chart has breadth (top panel), volume (middle panel) and price (bottom panel), and clearly shows the weakness of
small caps (aqua) and nasdaq (grey) which we already know.
What is new is that on Thursday the moving average lines on SPX and NY were breached (sell signals). They tried to flip back up on Friday’s bounce, but remained under. This is the first sell signal since early April (see vertical dashed lines).
You can see how brief said sell signals have been in the recent past, but no new serious longs for me until breadth and volume flip back up and give the green light again.

“Since the first of April, the DJIA has closed with either a triple-digit gain or loss, 13 times. That's 38% of the time. After all that, the Dow is only 33.65 points higher than where it started April..”

[Al_Dente]

COBRA:
On stockcharts:
Go to “home”
(top left) Click “blogs”
Scroll down and look to the right
They are highlighting you because you are in the top five

top five2_png.png (17.05 KiB) Viewed 2850 times

Also, you can probably vote for yourself here if you wanted to:
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[MrMiyagi]

RUT in rut

[uempel]

2957.png

Miyagi, check Monday Morning Outlook at Schaeffersresearch, read the statistics by Rocky White

[Royal Flush]

Omnibus daily chart has breadth (top panel), volume (middle panel) and price (bottom panel), and clearly shows the weakness of
small caps (aqua) and nasdaq (grey) which we already know.
What is new is that on Thursday the moving average lines on SPX and NY were breached (sell signals). They tried to flip back up on Friday’s bounce, but remained under. This is the first sell signal since early April (see vertical dashed lines).
You can see how brief said sell signals have been in the recent past, but no new serious longs for me until breadth and volume flip back up and give the green light again.

The attachment 517omnibus_png.png is no longer available

“Since the first of April, the DJIA has closed with either a triple-digit gain or loss, 13 times. That's 38% of the time. After all that, the Dow is only 33.65 points higher than where it started April..”

Hi Al Dente, Thanks for posting the T2104 chart, I like it. Last week you posted "Juiced Shorts" for which TZA was the clear winner. I wonder what the top performer would be for "Juiced Longs" perhaps UPRO? I explain the divergence as a result of the larger caps benefiting from POMO disproportionately to the small caps, but why this has only taken place over the last 2 months is beyond me. I drew 200% time extensions on my 15" chart and got the following results: 5/22 @ 11:15 and 5/23 @ 13:45. Lows are 5/15 @ 12:00 - 5/7 @ 10:15 = 6 days + 1.75 hrs. Highs are 5/13 @ 10:45 - 5/2 @ 10:15 = 7 days 0.5 hrs. This week's time extensions were timely: red lines on chart.

[Al_Dente]

Hi Al Dente, Thanks for posting the T2104 chart, I like it. Last week you posted "Juiced Shorts" for which TZA was the clear winner. I wonder what the top performer would be for "Juiced Longs" perhaps UPRO? I explain the divergence as a result of the larger caps benefiting from POMO disproportionately to the small caps, but why this has only taken place over the last 2 months is beyond me. I drew 200% time extensions on my 15" chart and got the following results: 5/22 @ 11:15 and 5/23 @ 13:45. Lows are 5/15 @ 12:00 - 5/7 @ 10:15 = 6 days + 1.75 hrs. Highs are 5/13 @ 10:45 - 5/2 @ 10:15 = 7 days 0.5 hrs. This week's time extensions were timely: red lines on chart.

Hi Royal thanks
This is juiced longs and shorts, five day % performance
Winners for the week (on this SMALL list) were Q longs and gold miner shorts

Other winners on the WEEK can be seen here:

[RedKite]

Opex+3 (Wednesday 21st) is historically a day when bear moves often start. Looking at the NYADV short term cycle, we will be about ready for a down move by then, so the question is whether it breaks support or doesn't. Personally I think the chance of a break down is better than 50%. Reasons: bad breadth, NYSI Bollinger squeeze, half-Wall cycle of around 8 weeks is about ready for a down. So I'm expecting to short late on Tuesday. Can't say whether I expect a waterfall or just a sawtooth down. And of course there's a risk it doesn't work out at all.

[Mr. BachNut]

Opex+3 (Wednesday 21st) is historically a day when bear moves often start. Looking at the NYADV short term cycle, we will be about ready for a down move by then, so the question is whether it breaks support or doesn't. Personally I think the chance of a break down is better than 50%. Reasons: bad breadth, NYSI Bollinger squeeze, half-Wall cycle of around 8 weeks is about ready for a down. So I'm expecting to short late on Tuesday. Can't say whether I expect a waterfall or just a sawtooth down. And of course there's a risk it doesn't work out at all.

FYI. May VIX contract expires at the open on Wednesday 21st.

[RedKite]

FYI. May VIX contract expires at the open on Wednesday 21st.

Many thanks. I wondered why Opex+3 was significant. I've done the research and seen it was often the start of a down, though not as often as the first few days of a calendar month. The relatively safe period is between NFP+4 and Opex+2 so I rarely start a short in that period. And if Opex+3 passes without event then I would normally wait for the start of the next calendar month. There are certainly patterns relating to month-start, NFP and Opex, though whether I've cracked them is a different matter.