07/11/2011 Intraday Watering

[99er]

rhight: "Just trying to survive in a very confusing world."

I hear ya. It's the reason I started looking at charts.

[agnosia]

all shorts covered on /es .. long crude 94.20

sold 94.70 for +.50

[debossman08]

rhight:

Great chart! So informative at just one glance. StockCharts sure looks appealing as a charting tool.

Thanks. Completely customizable, and so the charts are only as good or informative as the you can make them. You can learn a lot free from their chart school area. Additionally, I've incorporated ideas from several reference books. A persons system can be TOO complicated, and mine probably is (the paralysis of analysis), I'm always bumping up against the annotation limit. But, I'm going to hit a home run one of these days, if I keep practicing. I'm convinced that this trader's market has become highly technical in its' short to intermediate term behavior (rather than fundamental) simply due to all the computer program trading. Here is the 60 min. chart. Really needs to hold here (1319) for the swing channel up is to continue. I see real problems if we dive through the 50 DMA (now 1317). Important cyclical trend line support (heavy line with 3 touches since March 2009 low) coming in at 1277 today. Big things happening in the international and debt markets, should be worrying, and don't know how the central bankers will react, or if they are running out of room to react. Just trying to survive in a very confusing world.

Thank you for all the details. Helps us to learn the reasonings for our trading.

[cougar]

rhight:

Great chart! So informative at just one glance. StockCharts sure looks appealing as a charting tool.

Thanks. Completely customizable, and so the charts are only as good or informative as the you can make them. You can learn a lot free from their chart school area. Additionally, I've incorporated ideas from several reference books. A persons system can be TOO complicated, and mine probably is (the paralysis of analysis), I'm always bumping up against the annotation limit. But, I'm going to hit a home run one of these days, if I keep practicing. I'm convinced that this trader's market has become highly technical in its' short to intermediate term behavior (rather than fundamental) simply due to all the computer program trading. Here is the 60 min. chart. Really needs to hold here (1319) for the swing channel up is to continue. I see real problems if we dive through the 50 DMA (now 1317). Important cyclical trend line support (heavy line with 3 touches since March 2009 low) coming in at 1277 today. Big things happening in the international and debt markets, should be worrying, and don't know how the central bankers will react, or if they are running out of room to react. Just trying to survive in a very confusing world.

“right”: nice chart and commentary! I am also keeping in mind the Kabuki, inherent to an OpEx week, even in these crazy times…Reversal “bullish” moments are a must of this dance, and they will very probably happen violently! Fabricated news should help such “events”…

[AK84]

will your model be in sell after today? thanks

not a chance.

just wondering why not ?
charts look bearish for short term

The model measures mainly breadth, it's rare for the breadth to take a sharp turn on a single day selling.

Thanks!!

[cheech]

I posted this chart showing what happens when SPY trades far less than 10 million shares in an hour (not sure the exact volume figure, but you see the grey line at the bottom and the "white gap" of the weak volume bar). Well, this is what happens.

Though I was mocked for my views, I have now easily defeated those traders and mockers. It's not even a challenge for me.

[uempel]

This chart should be helpful

[DCS]

cobra, still think an accelerated car can not back down still think we make new highs? this market is crazy

back test the high still is possible, it's really rare we simply tank from here. but anyway, who cares, I'm shorting now. will worry about bulls the other day.

Wow. That's a pretty cavalier response.

Your analysis last week was bullish. Today we drop almost 2% SPX. It's not surprising some of your followers have legitimate questions, like "Hey man, is this drop is a game changer?"

Mebbe I'm missing something, but that seemed like an odd way to reply.

[jamesmith]

This chart should be helpful :)

SPX3.png

yay~ i like this chart :mrgreen: thanks

[uempel]

rhight: great chart

[I_Got_Prechterized]

cobra, still think an accelerated car can not back down still think we make new highs? this market is crazy

back test the high still is possible, it's really rare we simply tank from here. but anyway, who cares, I'm shorting now. will worry about bulls the other day.

Wow. That's a pretty cavalier response.

Your analysis last week was bullish. Today we drop almost 2% SPX. It's not surprising some of your followers have legitimate questions, like "Hey man, is this drop is a game changer?"

Mebbe I'm missing something, but that seemed like an odd way to reply.

Dude, Cobra's an intraday trader. Isn't that obvious by now? He was leaning bullish last week and now he's leaning bearish. What's so cavalier about that mentality?

[PRI]

This chart should be helpful

SPX3.png

They always are! Thank you!

[kktrader]

cobra, still think an accelerated car can not back down still think we make new highs? this market is crazy

back test the high still is possible, it's really rare we simply tank from here. but anyway, who cares, I'm shorting now. will worry about bulls the other day.

Wow. That's a pretty cavalier response.

Your analysis last week was bullish. Today we drop almost 2% SPX. It's not surprising some of your followers have legitimate questions, like "Hey man, is this drop is a game changer?"

Mebbe I'm missing something, but that seemed like an odd way to reply.

Let's not forget that Cobra is providing us with his analysis FOR FREE. Maybe he's wrong this time and the market won't make a new high but he's been mostly right in the past. Also let's not forget that he has absolutely NO responsibility of providing any info to us and carries NO responsibility to his followers.

Personally I'm very grateful to Cobra for this forum even though he might be wrong once in a while.

[alvian33]

yeap, Cobra is great, some calls can be off, but this is the business of trading, overall he rocks

[soku]

i love this market. full of manipulation, full of volatility, full of chance.
the bad part is i was fooled by the market and close my shorts at 1321. now 1321-22 area becomes res and there is weak support around 1314-1316, another weak one around 1310, and a strong support at 1301

i hate trending. in a strong trend, a lot of things got screwed up. the truth got masked, such price behavior. the first line of sup 1314 held. now we are heading toward 1321 res. as long as 1321-22 still inplay, i will take it as a continuous pattern.

[I_Got_Prechterized]

yeap, Cobra is great, some calls can be off, but this is the business of trading, overall he rocks

no doubt. We're lucky Cobra provides his insight for free. There are plenty of people charging lots of money for worthless garbage. The name Aphahorn comes to mind.

[BBFinance]

cobra, still think an accelerated car can not back down still think we make new highs? this market is crazy

back test the high still is possible, it's really rare we simply tank from here. but anyway, who cares, I'm shorting now. will worry about bulls the other day.

Wow. That's a pretty cavalier response.

Your analysis last week was bullish. Today we drop almost 2% SPX. It's not surprising some of your followers have legitimate questions, like "Hey man, is this drop is a game changer?"

Mebbe I'm missing something, but that seemed like an odd way to reply.

I think Cobra's response was more in line of a joke. He does the best TA out there.
Regarding the market, if we can keep a bigger picture and forget about 5 mins movement, we can come out winner. The bigger picture is about the manipulation by FED and its primary dealers. In the 1st place, the rally was fake. Then they allegedly sell the shares of Italian Banks in Europe while pumping the stock market in US. Now this week there is over $70 billion TBill settlement. Put everything together and then go figure what is game changer.
By the way, it is not the end of the world and I think bear market will not start untill we see SPX over 1450+.

[Cobra]

it was a L2 short on first touching EMA20, critical here, breakdown would be double top, breakout would be a failed L2, chances are good the low was in today. Let's wait and see.

[BBFinance]

Also, Cobra's blog is the only blog in my blog roll. That much I value his work.

[luckystar2006]

Even Market Analysts (not those Equity Analysts) working at large financial institutions make immature/bad calls sometimes. Look, they get paid by their firm with high salary + bonus; while we get it for free from Cobra. Like alvian33 said, he rocks.