07/11/2011 Intraday Watering

[luckystar2006]

To Cobra and all..I agree.Thanks Cobra for the great work

thanks. it reminds me that i must make all my comments clearly, so not a bad suggestion at all, really.

by the way, i'm typing in my bath room (believe or not ).

Snake in the bathroom??? Um....... I think I am going to call Animal Control Centre.

[Sqwii]

agree uempel - but you and Ben Bernanke have also been pretty spot on both on the rally and the "fake rally" if it was a fake rally..

What I am thinking is we will see some panic this week until Friday.... then a possibile bottom could occur over the weekend.

[agnosia]

at the end of the week guys it's your money on the line and you should take responsibility for your own trading decisions. blindly following cobra or anyone else for that matter will more than likely end badly. if you don't understand this then you probably should not be trading..

[Anaconda]

Agnosia / Cougar: How's the oil business?

Wish I'd followed my instincts and gone short last week.

Good work, gents!

[Sqwii]

People really need to realize how important it is also to look at UUP dollar and FXE euro - and as the dollar just broke a 1 YEAR trendline to the upside today.... dont expect markets to rally much , as this break for 1 year is a big break...... so more upside most likely for dollar and then most likely not much upside for markets....

[agnosia]

Agnosia / Cougar: How's the oil business?

Wish I'd followed my instincts and gone short last week.

Good work, gents!

thanks. /cl market is my bread and butter love to trade it.... made 1.50 today day trading and am swing short from 97.80.

[luckystar2006]

Bank strategists called for a possible short-term top at the end of last week. As far as I can tell from charts, there is no obvious sign of strong reversal from here yet for short-term play.

[Sqwii]

DUG daily chart - looks pretty much like some kind of inverted HS pattern over the last 6 months..... if right , DUG could explode to the upside which means commodities oil and gas to plunge a lot near term.

[Cobra]

critical time, sharply reverses up then the low was in. For now I still believe today's low wasn't in yet, we'll see a lower low and most like close low of the day, but I'm open to any new idea after all right or wrong doesn't matter, it's how you trade that matters...

[finman66]

at the end of the week guys it's your money on the line and you should take responsibility for your own trading decisions. blindly following cobra or anyone else for that matter will more than likely end badly. if you don't understand this then you probably should not be trading..

Couldn't agree more !!

[cougar]

Agnosia / Cougar: How's the oil business?

Wish I'd followed my instincts and gone short last week.

Good work, gents!

Pretty good: quite technical!
Problem: a disconnect between oil stocks and the commodity...which makes hedging between the two - difficult!

[Cobra]

here's the evil plan for the rest of the day. subject to change at any time of course.

[Cobra]

hmm, how come we don't have much audience today?

[cougar]

rhight:

Great chart! So informative at just one glance. StockCharts sure looks appealing as a charting tool.

Thanks. Completely customizable, and so the charts are only as good or informative as the you can make them. You can learn a lot free from their chart school area. Additionally, I've incorporated ideas from several reference books. A persons system can be TOO complicated, and mine probably is (the paralysis of analysis), I'm always bumping up against the annotation limit. But, I'm going to hit a home run one of these days, if I keep practicing. I'm convinced that this trader's market has become highly technical in its' short to intermediate term behavior (rather than fundamental) simply due to all the computer program trading. Here is the 60 min. chart. Really needs to hold here (1319) for the swing channel up is to continue. I see real problems if we dive through the 50 DMA (now 1317). Important cyclical trend line support (heavy line with 3 touches since March 2009 low) coming in at 1277 today. Big things happening in the international and debt markets, should be worrying, and don't know how the central bankers will react, or if they are running out of room to react. Just trying to survive in a very confusing world.

“right”: nice chart and commentary! I am also keeping in mind the Kabuki, inherent to an OpEx week, even in these crazy times…Reversal “bullish” moments are a must of this dance, and they will very probably happen violently! Fabricated news should help such “events”…

Kabuki - so true - but one thing I noticed is that the April '11 OpEx week ended down, and that was with the usual last minute IRA inflows, go figure. My favored entry for a long here would be a modified trailing 2 bar high with stop near last swing low on the 60 min. (SSO with stop, not options or ES). By modified I mean if I get a white bar, then I won't advance my entry to the next bar, avoiding a false trigger, and wait to see if there is a subsequent red bar to a new low (that often happens). Robert C. Miner describes a trailing 1 bar high entry, but I've found that that gives too many false entries and draw down. This is a swing trade entry (not a day trade) with the intention of holding 1 to 3 weeks. If I'm fortunate enough to catch an intermediate trend (3 week to 3 month) then I'll hold until an intermediate top appears to be setting up. Large gaps at the open, that often happen when a trend change is setting up, complicate this system, and result in a gap across a stop limit entry, then I look to trail an entry on a backtest of the breakout (if it happens, sometimes it just runs away from me).

Also, much thanks to Cobra for hosting his great blog and analysis.

“right”: again… nice and clear commentary! I enjoyed it and I agree.
You said: “…I look to trail an entry on a backtest of the breakout (if it happens, sometimes it just runs away from me).”
Here is an illustration of a “higher harmonic back-test”, which I use sometimes…In this case, its success rate ¾, with only ¼ runaway.
The chart itself was constructed to compare FXF and GLD after a long period starting with the June 2010 BUY Sfr signal.
I might show that signal on a separate chart, later..

[agnosia]

good call cobra... i like your evil plan outlook for the day i will buy big 1307-09 if we get there.

[cougar]

Nice "evil plan", Cobra!

[Cobra]

I believe I made the first score. due to the limit of the chart, the evil plan, is for direction only, as always, so don't count the points.

[Sqwii]

UUP dollar has support 21.6 and is right now at 21.7 - UUP broke a 1 year trendline which acts as support now. Dont expect any big rallies imo with the dollar moving higher.

[Cobra]

text book target for this round of selling, but I don't think we'd reach that target, instead, I think the selling is almost near the end. we'll see.

[Sqwii]

Cobra

Look at the daily charts on all short ETF's and daily chart on VIX looks like they will all explode higher in a "terrible tuesday" manner ? Tuesdays not usually bullish...........