06/19/2014 Live Update

[Cobra]

channel or bull flag. I'm neutral.

[Cobra]

vol surge, hopefully means pullback here then we'll see. pullback cannot make new low then the low was in for today.

[fehro]

SPY 15m... previous high acting as support, atm.

[Al_Dente]

I respect Rob's work a lot and it is VERY helpful.... but if the rally continues for 3 more days--- watch out - Look at May 2012 .... and it does not work with Quad Witch.... March 2012 is the ONLY time it continued past opex Friday....
I noted this in my market outlook comments...
plus my opex and FOMC comments, which can be found here:
http://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points/
I am thinking a top tomorrow is highly probable .... we may not roll over right away like March ( though we could...)
The ultimate PAIN trade for tomorrow would be a GAP UP Doji and then down.

“””I respect Rob's work a lot and it is VERY helpful”””
Agree
It’s just odds, for example 70% green odds means 30% of the time it was red
Of course you already know that; I’m just stating the obvious for folks who think it is right/wrong, when it is just odds
Thanks for your postings

[billrider321]

Denali,

I have been following your turn points. very detail and interesting research. As you are thinking a some kind of top in this area. But how much would be the pullback. May be between 25 to 50 sp points. How do you play with MID. Do you buy options.

Thanks again for hard work and sharing it with us.

[gappy]

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[gappy]

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[uempel]

There are many indicators suggesting that next week might be weak, but as Cobra says: we are brainwashed and can hardly imagine the market losing some handles

[Mr. BachNut]

A plethora of after-market P-Bars last night.
The low is 194.76

Assuming a SPY dividend of $1.05, it would equate to about $195.81 today.

[Cobra]

possible higher low therefore the low might be in for today, break the blue line above to confirm.

[MrMiyagi]

Gold, silver and miners going nuts....

[Al_Dente]

There are many indicators suggesting that next week might be weak, but as Cobra says: we are brainwashed and can hardly imagine that the market losing some handles

Boss: another possible factor to consider:
June 30 is EOQ end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing.
Stocks outperformed bonds this quarter, so managed portfolios that are under contract to maintain a fixed percentage in stocks/bonds, must sell stocks and buy bonds …. This will occur starting Monday the 23rd and continue through Monday the 30th.
[I’m not talking about “window dressing” which is optional, I’m talking about “portfolio rebalancing” which is mandatory.]

One example: Norway’s $880 billion Sovereign Wealth Fund - the world’s largest - gets its guidelines from the government in Oslo. It is under mandate to hold 60 percent in stocks, 35 percent in bonds and 5 percent in real estate.

[Caveats:
I do not know how many portfolios require quarterly, semi, or annual rebalancing; most are quarterly.
I do not know how many portfolios use the 10s benchmark (UST) and how many use the 30s benchmark (USB); most use the 10s. Either one works, unless the yield curve went cattywampus which it didn’t this quarter.
I do not know how many use SPX as a benchmark and how many use the Dow INDU; I assume most use SPX]

In any case, the outperformance of stocks over bonds is relatively small this quarter so the results could be negligible [?]

[MrMiyagi]

qqq

[fehro]

Gold Miners moving .. GDX breaking a possible 22 month downtrend of sorts... daily/weekly

[panbuk]

A plethora of after-market P-Bars last night.
The low is 194.76

BlockTradeAlert ‏@BlockTradeAlert 20h
BLOCK TRADE: $SPY 1,001,962 shares @ $194.76 [15:57:04]

BlockTradeAlert ‏@BlockTradeAlert 21h
BLOCK TRADE: $SPY 1,001,962 shares @ $194.76 [15:44:59]

BlockTradeAlert ‏@BlockTradeAlert 21h
BLOCK TRADE: $SPY 500,981 shares @ $194.76 [15:29:32]

BlockTradeAlert ‏@BlockTradeAlert 21h
BLOCK TRADE: $SPY 1,001,962 shares @ $194.76 [15:07:58]

[uempel]

There are many indicators suggesting that next week might be weak, but as Cobra says: we are brainwashed and can hardly imagine the market losing some handles

Boss: another possible factor to consider:
June 30 is EOQ end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing.
Stocks outperformed bonds this quarter, so managed portfolios that are under contract to maintain a fixed percentage in stocks/bonds, must sell stocks and buy bonds …. This will occur starting Monday the 23rd and continue through Monday the 30th.
[I’m not talking about “window dressing” which is optional, I’m talking about “portfolio rebalancing” which is mandatory.]

One example: Norway’s $880 billion Sovereign Wealth Fund - the world’s largest - gets its guidelines from the government in Oslo. It is under mandate to hold 60 percent in stocks, 35 percent in bonds and 5 percent in real estate.

[Caveats:
I do not know how many portfolios require quarterly, semi, or annual rebalancing; most are quarterly.
I do not know how many portfolios use the 10s benchmark (UST) and how many use the 30s benchmark (USB); most use the 10s. Either one works, unless the yield curve went cattywampus which it didn’t this quarter.


I do not know how many use SPX as a benchmark and how many use the Dow INDU; I assume most use SPX]

In any case, the outperformance of stocks over bonds is relatively small this quarter so the results could be negligible [?]

619portfolio rebalancing_png.png

Al_Dente, you're absolutely right about the rebalancing. I don't think it's negligible. And after a correction it might be a catalyst for some July strength. I'd love to see a run on 2000 as of 4th of July

[Cobra]

need decisively break green line to confirm more down.

[Cobra]

strong rebound here then still is double bottom, so battle is not over, wait.

[Heck]

Put implied volatility premia overvalued relative to calls.
Therefore opening long Equity calls/puts of 369%
and opening long Index puts three times calls ultra bullish here,
despite war drums.
In the past, markets went up when bombs dropped:

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

[gappy]

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