07/04/2014 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more accumulation but the distribution is rising fast. VERY INTERESTING.

Shortened week, so there won't be COT report until next week, so no new smart money chart this week.

I see nothing on AAII. More bulls but I'd like to see extremely extreme, for now it's far from extreme.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks. good week but nothing worth brag since the broad market did great this week too.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1348&p=166016#p166016

[Cobra]

preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1354&p=166019#p166019

[Al_Dente]

Macroprudential
Quarterly

[daytradingES]

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more accumulation but the distribution is rising fast. VERY INTERESTING.

inst b sell.png

Hi Cobra,

Thank-you.
What do you make of them both rising. I looked at the rising of the chart once you highlighted this. It seems that in all of the rest of the chart the two are inversely correlated, when blue is rising red is falling and vice-versa. I understand when they move in opposite directions - one man's selling is another man's buying.

I'm not even sure how both can rise at same time?

[Al_Dente]

[Al_Dente]

Second-quarter earnings season will unofficially get underway when AA unveils its report after Tuesday's close. Ahead of this event, AA calls are trading at more than two times the intraday average in today's [Friday’s] holiday-shortened session, and are outpacing puts by a 4-to-1 ratio [source: schaeffer’s]

[Cobra]

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more accumulation but the distribution is rising fast. VERY INTERESTING.

inst b sell.png

Hi Cobra,

Thank-you.
What do you make of them both rising. I looked at the rising of the chart once you highlighted this. It seems that in all of the rest of the chart the two are inversely correlated, when blue is rising red is falling and vice-versa. I understand when they move in opposite directions - one man's selling is another man's buying.

I'm not even sure how both can rise at same time?

I don't know how to answer your question. It shouldn't be a question at the first time. Why cannot both rise at the same time? Institutions can sell to retailers. This market is not only with fixed institutions, right? I know you mean A can only sell to B, but there's not only always A and B, could be C and D are holding, now C and D start to sell, but A is buying more than it's usually buying.

[Cobra]

If you still find the basic idea of trading H1/H2/L1/L2 hard to understand, here's a detailed explanation.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1355&p=166026#p166026

[Cobra]

Guys, I spent lots of time drawing the chart illustrating the h1/h2/l1/l2 trading idea.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1355&p=166026#p166026

[wandering196]

Thank you Cobra for the Trading H1 etc diagram, have just printed it out.

[Cobra]

Thank you Cobra for the Trading H1 etc diagram, have just printed it out.

[quientuves]

I was taking a look at Quantpedia and found this:

Ramadan Effect

Ramadan fasting is one of the most celebrated religious rituals in the world. Ramadan is a positively perceived feast (in the same way as other feasts like Christmas, New Year etc.) therefore we can anticipate it should positively affect investor psychology. Academic research confirms this speculation. Equity returns during Ramadan are almost nine times higher and less volatile than during the rest of the year. A simple market timing strategy could be therefore created by holding an equally weighted basket of ETFs, from countries with a large Muslim population during the month of Ramadan and staying in cash during the rest of the year. Due to its simplicity this strategy could be easily incorporated into various portfolios.

Muslim world is now on Ramadan. Ramadan started this year on June 28 and will finish on July 27. I know it cause I live near a mosque and we have problems cause they don't let us sleep till midnight when they finish their pray...

It was during 2006 Ramadan last time VIX arrived this level. It stayed at this levels during 4 months. In that time SP gained 60 points, made a little correction and then another 120 points up to May 2007. So i'm afraid those bears (like me) waiting this VIX levels to wake up are going to find an hostile enviroment.

Hey Central Banks!! respect stockmarket bio-diversity... give poor bears a breath!! We are next to extintion...

[johnnywa]

Guys, I spent lots of time drawing the chart illustrating the h1/h2/l1/l2 trading idea.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1355&p=166026#p166026

Cant you do same with 10- 15 minute chart

[daytradingES]

I thought this was possibly of interest to someone.

The HSD trades on TSX and is Horizon S&P Down
(Canadian exchanges were open on Friday 4th of July)
A hint for Monday???

[Cobra]

Guys, I spent lots of time drawing the chart illustrating the h1/h2/l1/l2 trading idea.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1355&p=166026#p166026

Cant you do same with 10- 15 minute chart

In theory, you can apply to any time frame.

[BullBear52x]

I can feel the bear, worst president since WWII, Best Unemployment number since '08, yet the work force participation is at its lowest in USA in more than 30 years because of good economy people retire early to enjoy their golden years , and new graduates still have a hard time to find a job, well, that's what I was told from the media. confusing

TA side of thing, stocks are at a new high with declining volume, nothing new here, short term T=Bill discount rate stands at .03. can not get any lower can it?

or it can stay like this for the next 10 years?

One thing I ran into worth mention is MFI is not so healthy here but not yet bearish since CMF is still strong, more sideways action to come?

overbought, CCI is at 185, at 200 will put some break on this run especially with weak CMF moving average. bottom line, selling here is counter trend. WDIK? Peace!

[Out of Bounds]

Copper is falling - can't find the reason.