08/11/2014 Live Update

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:28 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/08 ... ay-update/

[L_T]

Al our T2104 chart is trying to tell us something......

With the daily still below the 20 and 50 MA I would like to see a close above 198 or at least closing above those MA's before I'm a believer.

[uempel]

I'm curious to see what happens now.

[Al_Dente]

boss I have our hourly T2104 long since 8/8 Friday
looks just like yours

[Al_Dente]

boss: add the green 25ema on hourly
FWIW

[L_T]

boss I have our hourly T2104 long since 8/8 Friday
looks just like yours

811t2104_png.png

hi wire_png.png

I thought you needed SPY to make a higher high (or lower low) for confirmation? I suppose it all depends on how strong you want the signal to be and the old trade-off of being early vs missing some of (or all of! ) the move.

[fehro]

SPX 15m.. minor H&S on the 5m.. can see it in the zoomed in area.. target should it break 1937ish

[Cobra]

rebound so far weak.

[MrMiyagi]

rebound so far weak.

Consolidation favors bulls yada yada?

[jack black]

I believe the quiet days on the Ukrainian front are not going to last long. Keeping 50% allocation of miners and going short equities with the rest.

[ALdaytrade]

rebound so far weak.

Consolidation favors bulls yada yada?

Do not forget pbar from Friday low 191.15...

[fehro]

rebound so far weak.

Consolidation favors bulls yada yada?

Do not forget pbar from Friday low 191.15...

Talking pbar Jul 31 195.25 .. and 193.30 @ 12:30pm today?

[MrMiyagi]

spyX

[Al_Dente]

boss I have our hourly T2104 long since 8/8 Friday

I thought you needed SPY to make a higher high (or lower low) for confirmation? I suppose it all depends on how strong you want the signal to be and the old trade-off of being early vs missing some of (or all of! ) the move.

I want T2104 to be moving in the same direction as spy for confirmation
also 8/8 beat the spy high of 8/7 which indeed made it a higher high
at the very least… have to be long this morning then…
as usual depends on your timeframe, T2014 is a swing signal while intraday is ruled by internals and RSI and etc
in other words: swing long, but intraday can be long or short; currently long until it fails

Advancing volume = 4.5x declining volume
Advancing issues = 4.1x declining issues
Both are weakening

also the rules suck
[edit: disclosure: I caught a lucky run in XIV this morn, sold too soon as usual, now flat]

[Cobra]

breakdown, here's possible target.

[Al_Dente]

even though internals are still strong
this is an exit signal for SOME scalpers
[edit: rsi=default-14 here on 5min]

[taggard]

I suppose it all depends on how strong you want the signal to be and the old trade-off of being early vs missing some of (or all of! ) the move.[/quote]

just a thought or two. "how strong the signal is" is both the signal itself--and the mind of the viewer. esp the latter. amusing vid along those lines https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_gmMqzf2I8 lightness stability and fluidity eventually outweighs conviction in the longer run. for those new to this note that the 93 year old guy is holding back hugely to keep the whole thing going.

also two fun books "standard deviations" (gary smith) and "sparks of genius". Standard is a quick look at the miss use of statistics for non math people. if you you are trading technically and using stats at all--it's hugely valuable to somehow look at stats themselves. if you are not a math guy (and i really have to work at abstract math myself--relational stuff (so applied) comes much easier) then something of this sort is not a bad idea. if you are not using stats in trading but do like "modern medicine" then understanding stats is even more important.

Sparks is a very decent attempt to breakdown different approaches to "thinking" and then reference them to very sharp dudes and gals. For a trader these are ways to see the market either in conjunction with stats--or avoiding stats altogether. the book quotes endless well known science and art types and finds huge convergence. the essence of which is that--the ideas are formed prior to the abstractions used to explain them(so math in the cases of guys like Einstein or brush strokes for Picasso).

Cyril Stanley Smith (mit metallurgist) "the stage of discovery was entirely sensual (not soros) and mathematics was only necessary to be able to communicate with other people"

Richard Feynman (physics cal tech) "mathematics is the form in which we express our understanding of nature--but it is not the content of that understanding"

Pablo Picasso "i don't know in advance what i am going to put on canvas any more than i decide beforehand what colors i am going to use . . .Each time i undertake to paint a picture i have a sensation of leaping into space. I never know weather i shall fall on my feet. it is only later i begin to estimate more exactly the effect of my work.

(i esp like the leaping into space as this is what each trade entry feels like to me.)

good luck on your trades

[L_T]

also the rules suck

Huh?

[fehro]

VIX 15m.. bear flagging.. or weakly holding support, no divg.

[Al_Dente]

also the rules suck

Huh?

LMAO
re: rules
“Models beat the human forecasters because they reliably and consistently apply the same criteria time after time. In almost every instance, it is the total reliability of application of the model that accounts for its superior performance. Models never vary. They are always consistent. They are never moody, never fight with their spouse, are never hung over from a night on the town, and never get bored. They don’t favor vivid, interesting stories over reams of statistical data. They never take anything personally. They don’t have egos. They’re not out to prove anything.”
[James O’Shaughnessy’s “What Works on Wall Street”]