08/26/2014 Live Update

[taggard]

By the way, these kind of predictions are always tricky. And it's not only the free money which is pushing stocks higher, it's also the qualms of investors to play this 2009 rally. As soon as there no Wall Of Worry is left the market might tank - but skepticism towards Yellen's policies, the Ukraine war, the Iraq situation and Israel/Gaza is helping the bulls and hurting the contrarians ...

agree and this might mean euro qe is the top--i personally think the wall of worry is misnamed and its really the wall of "dudes they will do this thing you should all check it out" which avoids enough selling at any one time to overcome hedges and money out of the market. notice how attributed the meaning of the wall of "worry"-- is since for uempel (and other old timers) what's really worrisome is no wall for the market to lean against.

on another note--i got a email from an old acquaintance who is one of odd characters that you meet by "chance" (no such thing--just sloppy thinking but let's not haggle). we have talked for maybe 15 hours over as many years and it's always been interesting. he has very broad and deep life experience and has lived outside the box--as opposed to thinking outside it--in the old days making a living gambling. i once gave him 6k to try a market idea out--it failed but the conversations around the idea actually were very profitable for me.

in any case this time it's a currency play and the theory is there is going to be some sort of radical reset on the Vietnam's Dong. The acquaintance is not looking for money--but just trying to do me a favor. He is fairly comfortable at this point in life. I never play currencies and try to avoid predictive trading in general looking for trends of various lengths. Generally if there is a story with the idea in words i am not interested other than as mind candy. But i took a very very small position out of respect and also because he had set me thinking in the past which had worked very nicely. And i sent him a 2 page chart included rap on what i was up to currently (taking short term trades due to family and other non financial issues)

the point i am leading up to is that if you pull up a monthly and consider the idea of taking LEAP positions 10-15 out of the money say 1.5 years you did pretty good for the last 20 years other than a few tops. if you compounded these you did better and if you pulled the trade every time we max deviated from the 20 ema you did even better. so maybe some will want to consider this on the inevitable pull back (not the correction as much but that too).

and the idea again is look at the amount of time and energy that is spent trying to consider tops bottoms corrections and so on. Al Brook's first book is generally touted as a way to grasp price bars and trade them. actually the most interesting line in the book to me was the idea that you should not trade counter trend in any way until you had totally nailed with trend trades. the second idea was that the issue was how fast you could raise your trade size. the third was that you should choose good trades over bad. these ideas may appear fairly simple--but if you think about them--they are what most don't do--including Al Brooks for the most part (noted in book and i got the sense from a month of his real time stuff)

So my take on these 64-65 or 66 or what have you chart was more the idea that they were very nice trends. mostly not easy to predict due to the absurd size of them. and actually looking at the market over the last 14 years you had predictive problems if you were not a total trend follower most of the time. the odd situation is that while the market is "always the same" it's also "always different" esp when seen from a normal human temporal habit. Again you have something like 300-900 cognitive events a second coming in and thus looking at the market over 5 years is very tricky--even if you are roughly aware of say 1 event every 2 seconds. the hard part is "not doing anything" (livermore) and the reason is the huge impact of data coming your way. there is also the issue of making money vs trading. trading is endlessly amusing--and it's very easy in fact common to get side tracked in trading just as people often do with charts. somehow holding fast to the core idea is like wrestling hungry wolverines who have had too much high end coffee.

So bottom line? one is consider taking small amounts of money and doing what many do not (just holding till the trend ends). and then continue short term trading. what's different between this idea and a 401k or something is that you are leveraging a small amount--rather than trying to just leave in a large amount. depending on your perception the risk is higher either way. in the end the solution is the same fast trend fast in--slow trend slow in--keep the trend till it ends. what is required . . . hint major chill-naivete and yes innocence all get a bad rap because . . thinking experience and cynicism are thought to be more useful. so 64-69 ok--but really being an "idiot" and just going long is . . well . . kinda sharp actually.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.[/i]

good luck with your trading

[MrMiyagi]

Just fyi, the closed door talks between UKR/RUS presidents is going on at this moment. May cause some move close to end of the day.

Ukraine dissolved Parliament yesterday.

[merryme]

DVA
MA
UBL
UNM
VMC
CENX

[Out of Bounds]

words

I don't know how you have time to trade.

[merryme]

Taggard,
Re: Vietnam...here's another ticker I am in: VNM

[Cobra]

ascending triangle, bias up.

[BullBear52x]

Another angle between yesterday and today

[MrMiyagi]

!!! POWER HOUR !!!

[tsf]

Thank you, taggard. Your suggestions are very wise.

the point i am leading up to is that if you pull up a monthly and consider the idea of taking LEAP positions 10-15 out of the money say 1.5 years you did pretty good for the last 20 years other than a few tops. if you compounded these you did better and if you pulled the trade every time we max deviated from the 20 ema you did even better. so maybe some will want to consider this on the inevitable pull back (not the correction as much but that too).

and the idea again is look at the amount of time and energy that is spent trying to consider tops bottoms corrections and so on. Al Brook's first book is generally touted as a way to grasp price bars and trade them. actually the most interesting line in the book to me was the idea that you should not trade counter trend in any way until you had totally nailed with trend trades. the second idea was that the issue was how fast you could raise your trade size. the third was that you should choose good trades over bad. these ideas may appear fairly simple--but if you think about them--they are what most don't do--including Al Brooks for the most part (noted in book and i got the sense from a month of his real time stuff)

So my take on these 64-65 or 66 or what have you chart was more the idea that they were very nice trends. mostly not easy to predict due to the absurd size of them. and actually looking at the market over the last 14 years you had predictive problems if you were not a total trend follower most of the time. the odd situation is that while the market is "always the same" it's also "always different" esp when seen from a normal human temporal habit. Again you have something like 300-900 cognitive events a second coming in and thus looking at the market over 5 years is very tricky--even if you are roughly aware of say 1 event every 2 seconds. the hard part is "not doing anything" (livermore) and the reason is the huge impact of data coming your way. there is also the issue of making money vs trading. trading is endlessly amusing--and it's very easy in fact common to get side tracked in trading just as people often do with charts. somehow holding fast to the core idea is like wrestling hungry wolverines who have had too much high end coffee.

So bottom line? one is consider taking small amounts of money and doing what many do not (just holding till the trend ends). and then continue short term trading. what's different between this idea and a 401k or something is that you are leveraging a small amount--rather than trying to just leave in a large amount. depending on your perception the risk is higher either way. in the end the solution is the same fast trend fast in--slow trend slow in--keep the trend till it ends. what is required . . . hint major chill-naivete and yes innocence all get a bad rap because . . thinking experience and cynicism are thought to be more useful. so 64-69 ok--but really being an "idiot" and just going long is . . well . . kinda sharp actually.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.[/i]

good luck with your trading

[tsf]

MrMiyagi, for daytrading, your $NYDEC BB(10,1.9) chart has been quite good as a guide.
It looks like we may be getting close to a very short-term and maybe short-lived pullback ?

!!! POWER HOUR !!!

[Cobra]

!!! POWER HOUR !!!

[MrMiyagi]

MrMiyagi, for daytrading, your $NYDEC BB(10,1.9) chart has been quite good as a guide.
It looks like we may be getting close to a very short-term and maybe short-lived pullback ?

I've never used NYDEC intraday.. I can tell you that NYADV is at 2065, not an extreme number by any means. Also NYMO "bounced" off the 10sma from yesterday and the BBand resistance is much higher so..... higher still

Sure, it looks and feels toppy, mind you I have been thinking this for too long...

[Al_Dente]

8/22
This is two days old already, so we are on day #2 today
“Performance After Fast Moves From A 50-Day Low To A 50-Day High For SPX”
Sample size is too small (only 6 instances), but I’ve never seen so many 100%s show up on a Rob Hanna scan

[BullBear52x]

Just in, bib bib bib....Mid to Long term stop is at LOD @2000

[Cobra]

ascending triangle breakdown. here're targets. testing green line again, it'd break. too bad it's near the close now, otherwise might be a good trade.

[tsf]

MrMiyagi, for daytrading, your $NYDEC BB(10,1.9) chart has been quite good as a guide.
It looks like we may be getting close to a very short-term and maybe short-lived pullback ?

I've never used NYDEC intraday.. I can tell you that NYADV is at 2065, not an extreme number by any means. Also NYMO "bounced" off the 10sma from yesterday and the BBand resistance is much higher so..... higher still

Sure, it looks and feels toppy, mind you I have been thinking this for too long...

Thank you for explaining it, MrMiyagi

[fehro]

SPX 5m

[BullBear52x]

Who dare to call short term top is in today?

I will be right behind you, Peace!

[MrMiyagi]

4x4

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/08 ... ay-update/