09/06/2014 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows distribution rising from record low and quick falling in accumulation. Today's big up might change the accumulation to up from down and the distribution to down from up, but still the distribution is too close to the record low therefore, I'd say just a little little bit not good for bulls, guess we'll be in a range market at the worst.

inst b sell.png (17.29 KiB) Viewed 4822 times

Smart money shorted a little more. Generally I'd like to see a huge short then some chances a top of some kind is near. The short this week is far from huge, so says nothing it.

[Cobra]

summary of the week's stock picks. not a bad week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1411&p=170389#p170389

[Cobra]

preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1417&p=170391#p170391

[Al_Dente]

Sentiment Survey of Independent Investment Newsletter Writers:
“…According to Investors Intelligence the last time this level was reached was in 1987…. astute technicians will make note of this red flag…”

[BullBear52x]

Bears are almost extinct. Bullish signs are out weight the bearish signs in all time frames. I found weekly candle is in indecision state of Doji and $BPSPX ( waverider special) is leaning bearish, there's a little hope on the bear .

[BullBear52x]

IWM is the weakest link in this consolidation phase.

[DellGriffith]

[fehro]

SPX daily, fwiw.

[Mr. BachNut]

While they are morphing and evolving, I am still seeing broadening formations in the SPX.
These patterns have bearish implications.

[taggard]

http://www.oaktreecapital.com/MemoTree/ ... isited.pdf

lifted from ritholtz's blog.

(1) On the other hand, I’m solidly convinced the future isn’t knowable. I side with John KennethGalbraith who said, “We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know –and those whodon’t know they don’t know.
(2) "not everything that counts can be counted--and not everything that can be counted counts
(3) Knowing the probabilities doesn't mean you know what is going to happen.
(4) There is a big difference between probability and outcome
(5) i always say i have no interest in being a skydiver who's successful 95% of the time
(6) what i mean to say(inspired by Nicolas Nassim Taleb's foold by randomness is that--THE HISTORY THAT TOOK PLACE IS ONLY ONE VERSION OF WHAT IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN. If you accept this then the relevance of history to the future is more limited than may appear to be the case
(7) Investors face not one but two major risks--the risk of losing money and the risk of missing opportunities

and so on.

My short hand on risk is "risk is what you don't see". If it can be seen it can be factored. What you don't see is mostly--but not completely--due to your perspective and habits. In theory one could appear to overcome this by watching charts--but in fact we watch our ideas of charts and so this is the place to put the effort. in how we watch/listen--not what we watch or listen to. the actual situation is less complex than one thinks if one gives up trying to define all risk--and focuses on reacting to real risk that which cannot be defined. there is a sort of weird freedom in this.

point 6 above is really sort of a 2 part idea. (1) the current you are comparing to the past--is only partly the same under ideal conditions. (2) history is only one version of what might have happened at that time. so you have the problem of comparing events which are often not the same--and the idea that the original event could be thought of as only one possible outcome at that point. sigh. . .is this stuff fun or what?

point 7 above that risk comes in at least 2 forms (form 3 is we miss our life watching our investments and trades) is so hugely ignored it's beyond belief. and you can easily generalize the idea beyond trading into "the real world".

the key to the whole mess is since probability and outcome are divergent often enough to kill you--the issue is really how balanced you can be and how fast you can react. so you cannot even come close to controlling the outcome--the wise move is to stop trying so hard. use that energy instead to listen and move quickly. which again takes you back to your own stuff--esp mental and emotion stability.

[jademann]

The Bulls need a good bloody nose and then we can make the market work as it should.

[merryme]

http://www.alphahunt.ca/2014/09/the-last-stand.html