09/15/2014 Live Update

[uempel]

Is this fence-sitting going to go on until Wednesday FOMC, Thursday Scotland, Jobs or Housing Starts

[DellGriffith]

That green bar might not be so ha ha ha.

[DellGriffith]

I don't no part of long SPY right now.

[Al_Dente]

QQQ leads down with lower lows

[Al_Dente]

iPhone 6 Plus sold out Friday
http://recode.net/2014/09/12/larger-iph ... test-crop/

[FlowerGirl]

Exited 1/2 position in SSO (3.3% gain)

Other 1/2 will be liquidated when Blue circled cross is in place or at breakeven whichever comes first

[fehro]

SPX 15m.. pink resistance holding.. break LOD .. thin zone 1978-1964 ... could see a sharp drop if it goes

[uempel]

Bullish Percentages have a very distinct opinion (11:26 a.m):

BPNYA -0.46%, BPCOMPQ -1.18%, BPNDX -4.00%, BPOEX flat, BPINDU too, BPSPX -0.80%, BPFINA flat.

[uempel]

iPhone 6 Plus sold out Friday
http://recode.net/2014/09/12/larger-iph ... test-crop/

Al_Dente, did you order one

[fehro]

INDEX dailies.... RUT < 200d SMA

[uempel]

That green bar might not be so ha ha ha.

To watch the fight going on at these decisive pivots is really fun ... I put in small positions and then I wait for more confirmation. I'm in the bearish camp now, eyeing 1954ish ...

[Al_Dente]

iPhone 6 Plus sold out Friday
http://recode.net/2014/09/12/larger-iph ... test-crop/

Al_Dente, did you order one

two

[Cobra]

2nd test of day low, if sharp rebound here then the day low might be in. wait.

[Al_Dente]

QQQ of interest:
60 min
second panel $VXN is nas volatility in dashed red
bottom panel: social media (red) got hit

[Mr. BachNut]

No position.

My summation signal is down. Approaching oversold.
My composite trend signal is up. Approaching neutral or perhaps even down.

For newbies could you please clarify what is the each signal for? Are they of equal importance?

Two different signals:

Summation signal is based solely on advance decline data. Price, volume, other technical stuff not considered.
Win % = 58%; average gain to pain = 2.6.

Composite trend signal is a composite of over a dozen indicators (excluding advance decline) that are over 70% correlated to intermediate scale trends.
Win % = 71%; average gain to pain = 3.1.

While summation performance compares unfavorably to trend, I like to watch it for two reasons.
It is often early. It can be divergent with price.

The stats above are based on the protocols I have for each signal.
My morning post shows position, the signals to provide context, and any opinions, thoughts or plans.
I largely do this for my own benefit as a discipline to order my thinking on equity indexes, not to recommend a trade to others.
However, I figure if people observe the signals long enough, it may add a little color to their own thinking.
Readers also get to learn from my mistakes, which are many...

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. possible red bullish falling wedge.. but a break of LOD could get ugly... Open gap 1973-1974 range

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:00 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/09 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

testing blue line many times, so might see breakdown.

[Mr. BachNut]

No position.

My summation signal is down. Approaching oversold.
My composite trend signal is up. Approaching neutral or perhaps even down.

For newbies could you please clarify what is the each signal for? Are they of equal importance?

Two different signals:

Summation signal is based solely on advance decline data. Price, volume, other technical stuff not considered.
Win % = 58%; average gain to pain = 2.6.

Composite trend signal is a composite of over a dozen indicators (excluding advance decline) that are over 70% correlated to intermediate scale trends.
Win % = 71%; average gain to pain = 3.1.

While summation performance compares unfavorably to trend, I like to watch it for two reasons.
It is often early. It can be divergent with price.

The stats above are based on the protocols I have for each signal.
My morning post shows position, the signals to provide context, and any opinions, thoughts or plans.
I largely do this for my own benefit as a discipline to order my thinking on equity indexes, not to recommend a trade to others.
However, I figure if people observe the signals long enough, it may add a little color to their own thinking.
Readers also get to learn from my mistakes, which are many...

P.S. The signals are geared to the SPX. However, I'll note what the summation signal is saying about the Russell 2000 if there is a difference.

P.P.S. The performance data for the summation signal was better in the Pre-QE era. The increased failure rate on shorts in the QE era has been a drag. We'll see what happens post QE.

[icman]

Thank you, Mr. BachNut!