09/19/2014 Live Update

[Out of Bounds]

Long 200.80 to see if I can pay my bar tab tonight

Alternative way to pay your bar tab: bar bet.
Bet someone they can't name the Treasurer of the United States.
When they say "Jack Lew", pull out a bill (you'll need a new one) and show them that he is the Secretary of the Treasury, but the Treasurer of the US is actually Rosa Gumataotao Rios.

I never knew that.

[BigPicture]

1) Flower girl's target was already reached, adjusted for the dividend.
2) Investing/trading decisions based on political view point almost always lose money, in my personal experience.

edit: I meant this in reply to finman66's:
"To be clear I'm not saying that this marks the "exact" top as we may very well get flowergirl's target and Miyagi's p-bar's .... I am saying that the top is very near as what are the possible drivers to lead the market higher ? Fed is ending QE, we have permanent entitlement class that no longer needs to work so unemployment is systemic at this point and wages, health care premiums and inflation are creeping higher. Bank lending standards won't be getting any looser in the next 1 to 2 years so we can't pull that same stunt of borrowing our way to prosperity....taxes are higher already and set to rise as ObamaCare kicks in full steam in 2015 and 2016.

Not to even mention that the market hasn't had a real correction or even a pullback of note in 2 plus years.

So I'm a skeptic and will sit on the sidelines at these levels."

Also, I mean this in a good well-intentioned way. Just trying to be helpful as I see you making a similar mistake to one I used to make that cost me.

[KENA]

RUT is dn 10.8 and is about in bear territory . The 150 dma has crossed the 50 dma. The 200 dma will follow. Lets see

sc.png

200d @ 1151.. almost toast.. 0.25 diff

Yes and usually the rest of the mkt will follow.

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

[Cobra]

breakdown blue line for another 100% mm. I don't believe 100%, but fib 61.8% is possible.

[Varaha]

Today's drinking game:

Have CNBS on in the background and every 100th time you hear "Ali Baba", drink a shot.

[Varaha]

bb width is rising. One of two things must happen now:

1. The overwhelmingly likely scenario right now is a ramp up higher. You can go long and ride it up.
2. The only other possible scenario (which is a low percentage chance but can happen) is the uptrend gets broken very early. If that happens, shorting becomes very profitable.

So its basically so long with the uptrend as the stop. If it breaks down, cover and short because it will drop for quite a while.

Everybody will be selling on Tuesday.

Rosh Hashanah.

BTW, if I don't see you guys next week, Leshona Toyva Tikoseyvu! Happy 5775




"The early bird gets the worm.
But the second mouse gets the cheese."
--- Unknown

[Out of Bounds]

Out of that little long. No bar tab, just beer.

[fehro]

INDEX Dailies... COMPQ testing 20d, TRAN outside reversal atm

[JFR]

I haven't been watching this one. A wild ride ...

[Tutti]

bb width is rising. One of two things must happen now:

1. The overwhelmingly likely scenario right now is a ramp up higher. You can go long and ride it up.
2. The only other possible scenario (which is a low percentage chance but can happen) is the uptrend gets broken very early. If that happens, shorting becomes very profitable.

So its basically so long with the uptrend as the stop. If it breaks down, cover and short because it will drop for quite a while.

Everybody will be selling on Tuesday.

Rosh Hashanah.

BTW, if I don't see you guys next week, Leshona Toyva Tikoseyvu! Happy 5775




"The early bird gets the worm.
But the second mouse gets the cheese."
--- Unknown

Happy & Healthy to you and yours as well. I'll be off the desk too.

[BigPicture]

Long 200.80 to see if I can pay my bar tab tonight

Alternative way to pay your bar tab: bar bet.
Bet someone they can't name the Treasurer of the United States.
When they say "Jack Lew", pull out a bill (you'll need a new one) and show them that he is the Secretary of the Treasury, but the Treasurer of the US is actually Rosa Gumataotao Rios.

I never knew that.

Almost no one does. Which is what makes it a good bar bet.
Or a good way to get shot, depending on the type of bar you frequent

[finman66]

1) Flower girl's target was already reached, adjusted for the dividend.
2) Investing/trading decisions based on political view point almost always lose money, in my personal experience.

edit: I meant this in reply to finman66's:
"To be clear I'm not saying that this marks the "exact" top as we may very well get flowergirl's target and Miyagi's p-bar's .... I am saying that the top is very near as what are the possible drivers to lead the market higher ? Fed is ending QE, we have permanent entitlement class that no longer needs to work so unemployment is systemic at this point and wages, health care premiums and inflation are creeping higher. Bank lending standards won't be getting any looser in the next 1 to 2 years so we can't pull that same stunt of borrowing our way to prosperity....taxes are higher already and set to rise as ObamaCare kicks in full steam in 2015 and 2016.

Not to even mention that the market hasn't had a real correction or even a pullback of note in 2 plus years.

So I'm a skeptic and will sit on the sidelines at these levels."

Also, I mean this in a good well-intentioned way. Just trying to be helpful as I see you making a similar mistake to one I used to make that cost me.

I don't think I was being political, I was questioning what the catalyst for the market moving higher could be, given the fact's that I outlined.

I appreciate your good intentions, but it's difficult to lose or cost myself anything more than an opportunity by being on the sidelines.

[Varaha]

Interesting:



http://www.marketwatch.com/story/beware ... 2014-05-07


"Basically, the Alibaba stock will buy you a stake in a Cayman Islands-registered entity which is under contract to receive the profit from Alibaba’s lucrative Chinese assets but will not actually own them. "
I.e., YOU ARE BUYING A SHELL COMPANY IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

[BigPicture]

" it's difficult to lose or cost myself anything more than an opportunity by being on the sidelines.[/quote]
Well, that's certainly true.

[gappy]

15 minute.

Capture.PNG

[BigPicture]

Looks like we may get the 100% MM.
Already took out the fib 61.8

edit: actually, 200.29 is probably close enough.

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. possible bounce zone... mind yesterday's open gap.. so close

[Cobra]

as expected, the 3rd mm was not 100% mm. now the rebound could be 2 legged. 1st leg might be over.

[MrMiyagi]

Gold and silver taking it in the sac... wow