10/21/2014 Live Update

[cletus]

market breadth off the low is fairly weak, which means there should be a wave 2 down with a big down day to distribute. No day yet has had up vol vs down vol > 10:1. Pretty poor rally, mainly short covering.

[uempel]

Took profits on spy swing long..1920 was my goal so now wait and lets see. Uempel is looking for 1940 but 1920 was my top.BP's looking good but the dn PB's may come into play. Lets see what happens this afternoon.

[fehro]

SPX daily.. working remotely on the laptop for the week..

[Eddie]

SSO 30 min chart. Higher highs and lows = uptrend. Rising 5 DMA = uptrend. Retook 200 DMA = uptrend. Daily momentum indicators moving higher = uptrend. Summation index moving higher, and with much more strength will get a bullish cross = uptrend. I am guilty of not believing this bull market strength, thinking there always has to be more downside, or at least a retest of lows. More often than not, particularly in the last few years, that has led to missed opportunities. I fear "chasing," only to watch price move higher. We can look at probabilities of what has happened before, but we don't know what happens next, so have to trade based on the charts in front of us. As always, risk management is key.

[fehro]

INDEX Dailies

[uempel]

Bullish Percentages: BPNYA up 2.45%, BPCOMPQ up 1.52%, BPSPX up 3.37%, BPNDX up 9.68%, BPOEX down 2% - the others are flat.

This is not yet the right time to play the short side, far too early in my opinion.

[cletus]

dangerous possibility for bears is that the market keeps making symmetry and we may never see those lows again....could be generational...

[Eddie]

VIX has lost nearly 50% since the peak on 10/15. Sure looks like risk is back on.

[Eddie]

This is simple, pretty reliable market timing indicator for the bulls. When CCI for SPX has moved below -100, then crosses back above zero, it has been a good signal that it is safe to get back in the water.

[uempel]

This rally is quite amazing, SPX will break up to new highs towards the close. All thanks to bad earnings reports from KO and MCD

[Eddie]

No doubt. I put in limit orders for just a small pullback, only to see it not materialize.

[uempel]

This is simple, pretty reliable market timing indicator for the bulls. When CCI for SPX has moved below -100, then crosses back above zero, it has been a good signal that it is safe to get back in the water.

Eddie, I believe too much technical damage was done. This is a good-bye party. Let's enjoy

[Eddie]

I hear you unempel, but it looks to me like the technical damage is being repaired. I actually hope you are right, but I don't see it in the charts. For now, anyway.

[cletus]

Although today the bulls are running and sentiment is hot, it bears noting that recently the ISEE 5/10/20/50 day averages for equity calls vs puts hit about a 10 year low. So...no one can claim there's a lot of exuberance.

[Cobra]

Nothing to say, so far it's very tight up channel, so the trade is long only.

[daytradingES]

10:28

[jungle trunks]

Just purely on instinct, I think with the elections 3 weeks away that the market is likely going to drift up unless a black swan crashes the party.

[daytradingES]

10:31

[uempel]

1930 looks short term toppish for this ellipse system Not necessarily a big correction, just down a few handles.

[stingrey]

Remember this chart

23.png

Yes, saw it yesterday and was impressed by the consistency of the pattern comparison...do you have any idea how much the 1950 area would have to be breached by to invalidate the pattern...