12/18/2014 Live Update

[uempel]

This very conservative system is close to a buy signal ...

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:05 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/12 ... ay-update/

[ballatines]

p-bar yesterday still possible?

[fehro]

SPX diamond target tagged.. VIX trying to hold 50d.. 20d/200d 15.46/13.98

[brucekeller]

$GPRO be like, what rally?

[soku]

2045 good spot for a pause. gold miners are juicy. same as erx

[ballatines]

BLOCK TRADE: $SPY 500,899 shares @ $201.94

[jway888]

p-bar yesterday still possible?

paging for pbar expert Mr Miyagi

[soku]

ERX wild. again, 60 neighborhood is a good place to take profit. it remains bullish as long as 53 holds. what i forgot to say is in theory, continuous wedge target is 100%

[brucekeller]

BLOCK TRADE: $QQQ 1,004,076 shares @ $101.82 [10:06:28] too

[cletus]

Energy stocks are weakening badly as crude falls this morning. What looked like a nice bear trap is now turning into a failed backtest. Energy bulls need a strong close.

[ballatines]

as said $CL down further more after failed squeeze .. if the previous low taken, the comingdown leg will be fast.

with Ruble and Oil at such level, i still expect the second down leg will come soon at a speed out of our expectation. Pay safe and fasten the seat belt

[thelefteyeguy]

oh great oil just went negative

[Royal Flush]

BLOCK TRADE: $SPY 500,899 shares @ $201.94

That would be ON gap closure.

[grandeG]

Thank you FG for your insights and advice on Tuesday. Followed you (again) then decided to lean into it a bit more and get a little aggressive near the close on Tuesday. Closed those positions at the open this morning. It's my birthday so I'm taking your gift and enjoying the next couple days off.

For all others this means money... (up > 9% so far and going)

[ballatines]

$RSX gap filled ~ up from $12.5 to $16.5

[Mr. BachNut]

And all the whos in whoville sang a merry Christmas tune...

I have marked a cycle low on my NYMO cycle chart.
While the method is to wait for a sequence of higher highs and lows, the sky boom over the last 24 hours makes it unlikely we'll see lower NYMO lows than a few days ago.
Also time-wise, this cycle has run long enough to be fully cooked.
It does remain possible per this model to get lower price lows with a positive NYMO divergence, but I think that would require some nasty event at this point.
I would not rule out a test or some move to shake out weak longs, but the BTD mentality is still entrenched.
Looks more like a V than a W at the moment.
We'll see where this up cycle goes.

The currency tell is confirming the NYMO read. It suggests a low is in.

Bonus chart for today is TRIN. Cletus (golem?) rightly pointed out a buy signal.
I should have stopped into a long on the break of yesterday's highs overnight.
Candidly, this last campaign was emotionally exhausting as it required holding through wild volatility. So, I took a break instead of a trade.
The swing in TRIN over the last few days is a sight to behold. Really remarkable.

I am flat now. My remaining shorts were closed throughout the day yesterday at various prices.
I was a little greedy looking for a lower low near the open yesterday, but did a good job cluing into when Mr. Market had something else in mind.

This is probably my last post for the year. I want to wind down and relax.
I do anticipate some long setups triggering probably next week. I'll take them if they come.

I think next year is going to be an awesome year to trade. I can't wait.
Everybody should get ready by getting some rest and having a happy, wonderful and safe holiday time.

[DellGriffith]

daily SPY has now turned into a gap up black bar. that seems to always favor bears...

[Cobra]

pullback may have another small leg to test blue line at least?

[fehro]

end of day charts…. long long term Oil.. fwiw.