12/18/2014 Live Update

[fehro]

end of day charts…. long long term Oil.. fwiw.

Keep in mind the USD. Long long long term

[jademann]

Flat, happy and glad. All have a great hols!

[fehro]

possible minor H&S SPX… VIX looking bear flaggish

[fehro]

This is probably my last post for the year. I want to wind down and relax.
I do anticipate some long setups triggering probably next week. I'll take them if they come.

I think next year is going to be an awesome year to trade. I can't wait.
Everybody should get ready by getting some rest and having a happy, wonderful and safe holiday time.

Thank-you, and have a good holiday!

[ballatines]

$RSX - 3.7%
$CL down 1.9%

Gap fill is not impossible

[ballatines]

have been waiting to add IYR put for a 3 month timeframe

[Heck]

ISE ISEE ultra bullish buying panic
INDEX opening long undervalued calls/puts 122%
ALL opening long overvalued calls/puts 223%
EQUITY opening long overvalued 541%
In the past extreme overvaluation of overvalued calls/puts very bullish

https://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

[fehro]

SPX hourly.. don't love these invs H&S patterns… but for aggressive bulls. they seem to work out well in the past.. Santa may added a rocket to his sled.

[Heck]

And all the whos in whoville sang a merry Christmas tune...

I have marked a cycle low on my NYMO cycle chart.
While the method is to wait for a sequence of higher highs and lows, the sky boom over the last 24 hours makes it unlikely we'll see lower NYMO lows than a few days ago.
Also time-wise, this cycle has run long enough to be fully cooked.
It does remain possible per this model to get lower price lows with a positive NYMO divergence, but I think that would require some nasty event at this point.
I would not rule out a test or some move to shake out weak longs, but the BTD mentality is still entrenched.
Looks more like a V than a W at the moment.
We'll see where this up cycle goes.

The currency tell is confirming the NYMO read. It suggests a low is in.

Bonus chart for today is TRIN. Cletus (golem?) rightly pointed out a buy signal.
I should have stopped into a long on the break of yesterday's highs overnight.
Candidly, this last campaign was emotionally exhausting as it required holding through wild volatility. So, I took a break instead of a trade.
The swing in TRIN over the last few days is a sight to behold. Really remarkable.

I am flat now. My remaining shorts were closed throughout the day yesterday at various prices.
I was a little greedy looking for a lower low near the open yesterday, but did a good job cluing into when Mr. Market had something else in mind.

This is probably my last post for the year. I want to wind down and relax.
I do anticipate some long setups triggering probably next week. I'll take them if they come.

I think next year is going to be an awesome year to trade. I can't wait.
Everybody should get ready by getting some rest and having a happy, wonderful and safe holiday time.

NYMO 121814.jpg

GBP Yen 121814.jpg

TRIN 121814.jpg

All the best.
Can be tough to buy low, sell high.
Thanks for your posts.

[tsf]

Yes, thank you Mr BachNut, fehro, Cobra and this wonderful forum !

This is probably my last post for the year. I want to wind down and relax.
I do anticipate some long setups triggering probably next week. I'll take them if they come.

I think next year is going to be an awesome year to trade. I can't wait.
Everybody should get ready by getting some rest and having a happy, wonderful and safe holiday time.

Thank-you, and have a good holiday!

[Junior Buffett]

I see lot of members are taking off...before it's too late..

[Denali92]

Final thoughts till just before New Year's with a little info on recent Quad opex days.

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/12 ... ay-update/

THANKS to ALL THE GREAT commenters here! The insights are always very helpful.

ENJOY the holidays!

-D

[Al_Dente]

PAGING GRANDEG
Re: Descending Broadening Wedge
The breakout was Bulkowski’s technical confirmation
He would now draw his targets [NOT 4 intraday day trading]
http://thepatternsite.com/dbw.html

[fehro]

Euro could be in for a big move soon.. don't buy your European villa quite yet.

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:04 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/12 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

QQQ ALERT
Nasdaq-100 index ($NDX, QQQ) annual changes to the index are scheduled to take effect before the market opens on Monday Dec. 22
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/ ... sinessNews

[fehro]

VIX 15m.. yeah not sure. .but possible H&S.. VIX would get creamed into the holidays.. not really a surprise.. but target measures to 2007 lows.

[aklynx]

VIX pit trading showing risk back on for next few weeks at least.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foYrG5lN9_I

[Cobra]

2nd test of day high, key time. sharp pullback here would be double top. I think unlikely though.

[MrMiyagi]

spy

qqq