12/20/2014 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more distribution than accumulation despite the market up a lot. Guess the Monday chart would show more accumulation otherwise it may prove the institutional chart is not precise or even worse (e.g. it's not real institutional chart) because there's no way retailers are lifting the market this big within very short time. So if it's not institutions nor retailers, then who bought the market in the past 2 days? Government? You got to be kidding me.

Smart money doesn't show huge selling which I'd like to see to clearly signal that the high might be in, so not much use this week. Maybe the chart won't work anymore.

Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises from very negative to very positive value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

The attachment 2.png is no longer available

[Cobra]

summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1516&p=179690#p179690

[Cobra]

preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1523&p=179692#p179692

[fehro]

Daily, Weekly Recap - Candles/levels

[fehro]

…. So if it's not institutions nor retailers, then who bought the market in the past 2 days? Government? You got to be kidding me….

Weekly return by Industry Indexes… +18% / + 14% Oil & Gas… some may say "V" shaped recovery.. looking a little dead cat bounce to me.. on the upper chart weekly. Daily lower. A look at the NDX/QQQ's components. Some not pretty candles.. on INTC (see vol-options week) / AAPL.. GOOGL just bounced above a huge open gap (Oct 2013)… FB almost filled a gap. Possible rotation? not so sure.

[ballatines]

it is quite reliable to catch the top n bottom on the market using $USB:$SPX ratio

The divergence btw the previous 3 tops is obvious and the situation won't improve unless big plunge of UST/rocket of SPX in coming future ~

the volatility of the ratio has been low in weekly term but started to pick up. However i have no idea where the UST will go in short term

[fehro]

Index Yields - (lower pane same scale) / T2 Indicators

[Royal Flush]

Berserk, Broken Rampathon Algo "Buys" The S&P At 2,130

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-1 ... ht-sp-2130

[daytradingES]

So if it's not institutions nor retailers, then who bought the market in the past 2 days? Government? You got to be kidding me.

I thought it widely known and accepted that the govt buys directly.
Several years ago there was an act past that allowed the govt (president's office) to directly buy to support the market.
As I understood it they can buy at anytime they want - their orders are placed through a couple of brokerages. (no idea if how and when or how much they report)

(this is the govt not the FED).

Last buy campaign (prior to this one) was exactly at -10% - TO THE TICK!!!
(ES) 2014.50 to 1813.50

[daytradingES]

Here's a question: Hasn't the author got it wrong?

I went to ZH and read this article.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-1 ... nt-5577444

I think the author is confused higher inflation leads to higher interest rates (to maintain a positive real interest rate for bondholders).

Then he/she goes on to talk about "debt deflation" - never heard the term before - did she invent it?

[chetas]

I do not contribute much to this forum, though i read it every day and find it very useful. I do have a something to suggest

Reading Zero hedge is injurious to traders health or portfolio health.

I would suggest reading Martin Armstrong blog and if you register in their website , you also get access to their daily Global market watch, which tracks the global capital flows. If i have to speak one last work to say to a trader friend it is Martin Armstrong.

princetoneconomicsintl.com

armstrongeconomics.com

this blog is updated everyday, and it is simply amazing, many of you may know, i though i should say this for guys who still dont know about this

[Trades with cats]

I just want to add that Hollywood could not have made up Martin Armstrong, no one would believe his story on the screen. His track record speaks for itself. I read him every morning while I wait for Cobra to open up.

[DellGriffith]

List of recent Updates here:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1515#p178938