01/05/2015 Live Update

[Cobra]

vol surge, might be a rebound here first then we'll see.

[grandeG]

There are always contradicting calls on the board. I know I speak for more than myself when I say please post what you have. Yours along with other posts from members of this board help me make better decisions for a higher degree of success.

ES target ~2006 invoked...rise above 2040 will deactivate it...
I purposely avoid posting ES/SPY targets as these are known to contradict calls made by many on this board...so take no offense..

[Mr. BachNut]

I have marked 12/29 as the high for the recent NYMO up cycle as lower high lower low suggest a down cycle is underway.
As end/beginning of year stuff is going on, noise makes signaling suspect, but it is what it is.

The middle Keltner band/50 day MA target has been tagged.
There is a possible next target below to tag the rising trend line and close a big gap from December.
If the wedge thesis continues to develop, the next target would be a turn area, but that is guess work at this point.
If the wedge thesis does develop, I'll be looking for NYMO to start coiling around the zero line.
It is interesting to me that the upper Keltner is starting to curl down.

The currency tell continues to be helpful in confirming highs and lows.
Interestingly, it is approaching a support area.
Let's see if it tries to set a low for the move there.

As usual, I have no idea what will happen.

[Out of Bounds]

Russell at HOD

[Out of Bounds]

Russell at HOD

Unfortunately, I bought the SPY

[DellGriffith]

Daily SPY:

Most downtrends last at least 2 weeks. Today is only day 4, and I'm seeing the usual bottom calls across several forums. Corrections are notable for a huge jump in posts from people trying to call bottoms, just as rallies are notable from a huge jump in people trying to call tops.

The two week rule means not to expect a bottom until at least January 14th. The next cycle low (from my weekend update charts) is January 16th. Both say the rising wedge pattern will fail.

The bullish cross on 12/22 was NOT #40, as I expected and repeatedly mentioned. That cross had a high chance of failure, and it failed. I have a system to remove all the bad bullish crosses and it worked again. Still a perfect 39-0.

My bias is that a lot of people are gonna call a bottom at the support line of the rising wedge, and when it fails, that will provide ample fuel to power to lower price levels.

Overall, this correction is strange in that SPY likes to have spike bottoms and rounded tops, and that last top was more like a spike. It does happen from time to time and doesn't seem to mean anything. It just doesn't happen very often.

[DellGriffith]

Russell at HOD

Unfortunately, I bought the SPY

Do you think the fact that RUT isn't confirming the drop today has significance? Just asking.

[DellGriffith]

There are always contradicting calls on the board. I know I speak for more than myself when I say please post what you have. Yours along with other posts from members of this board help me make better decisions for a higher degree of success.

ES target ~2006 invoked...rise above 2040 will deactivate it...
I purposely avoid posting ES/SPY targets as these are known to contradict calls made by many on this board...so take no offense..

Discussion itself is good. Sometimes it makes me think of new approaches.

[FlowerGirl]

Discussion itself is good. Sometimes it makes me think of new approaches.

SPY vs XIV/VXX divergence is saying that bottom is closer than many think...new H/L for VXX/XIV will make this obsolete in a sec...
I want to Long Volatility...

[Mr. BachNut]

One of the issues for me concerning the wedge thesis on the SPX is that the R2K has been doing comparatively well.
To buy into a bearish SPX pattern, one would like to see the small caps showing weakness or a bear pattern too.
Otherwise, we might just be seeing some corrective new year's rotation (out of big caps to small caps).

Well, it occurred to me this morning that the R2K may be sporting a nice megaphone (broadening top) pattern.
It has good symmetry with a clear meridian too.
Marked in purple on the chart.

This may be nothing but something to keep an eye on.
There is all kinds of technical support around this meridian, which I would expect to hold, at least for awhile.
If, however, a close below that meridian were to occur (perhaps in conjunction with a trend break in the SPX), it would be really interesting.
Both the SPX wedge and the R2K megaphone patterns are big enough to suggest a significant move.
All this needs more time to unfold, but things should get clearer in the next few weeks.

[Out of Bounds]

Russell at HOD

Unfortunately, I bought the SPY

Do you think the fact that RUT isn't confirming the drop today has significance? Just asking.

Yes, Usually a strong move needs participation from all four majors. So, I would expect Russell to get in the game before any further move down. It's definitely something to make a note of even as I watch the DOW making new lows. Curious.

[Out of Bounds]

Now the Russell has broken

[jway888]

I think we could see further mayhem when Russell finally giving up sustaining

[Heck]

ISE ISEE
74% ALL opening long overvalued calls/puts
and
66% EQUITY opening long overvalued calls/puts
Both Bullish

QQQ JAN 09 2015 102.50 C - 11:16:11
Bought to Open @ $0.62

https://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

Just took 24.8% profit on JNUG bought and posted here on 12/31/2014.

[Out of Bounds]

Now the Russell has broken

and totally rejected the down move. I'm going to just relax and see how it plays out. My guess is that the bottom is in.

[Cobra]

doesn't look like, but should be a rebound here again as I see vol surge.

[SigmaEcho]

one for the books.

via Kimble

[L_T]

A / D says down:

[DellGriffith]

If someone asks if we had 4 down days in a row in 2014, it will forever be up for debate become some people will claim that because this current decline started in 2014, that it counts for 2014. Others will say no.

[Cobra]

rebound may have small legs but likely would fail eventually.