03/18/2015 Live Update

[tsf]

u still have all your lungs and kidneys, Mr M?

698.png

[Out of Bounds]

Just closed the ill advised UVXY trade at a 9 cent loss.

[fehro]

TLT closes at HOD - UUP -1.98%

[MrMiyagi]

u still have all your lungs and kidneys, Mr M?

Yes, I didn't take any out today....

[fehro]

GOLD ..http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

[K447]

In other news, Flowergirl tweet regarding her UVXY overnight play;

"So I am toast here"

Apparently I am now blocked from seeing her tweets

[Al_Dente]

How did interest-rate sensitive issues do when they realized janet would hold firm for a while

[DellGriffith]

Do We Go Down or Do We Go Down?

Daily SPY:

If daily SPY gets a MACD bullish cross, its very unlikely to be #41 now. I have a set of rules to distinguish between "valid" crosses and crosses to avoid. This one will very likely be one to avoid. It will have an elevated chance of being a failure.

Another day or two of rally and we get an invalid MACD bullish cross and then yuk.

An invalid bullish cross means they occur pretty much right at a top (or a top occurs a day or two later). You buy them and just lose your ass because the market tanks.

So I see three options on the table, with rough odds:

1. Today is the end of wave B up of the ABC correction. SPY starts dropping tomorrow. This is the scenario where the BAD MACD bullish cross never happens. So we go DOWN. A decent chance of this.
2. SPY rallies into a BAD MACD bullish cross. These mostly occur near a top and longs get crushed. So we go DOWN. A pretty good chance of this.
3. SPY rallies into a BAD MACD bullish cross and it turns out its actually a valid cross and SPY keeps rallying. Statistically the odds are very low.

So basically, SPY is either going DOWN or it is going DOWN. (With a small chance of going up). This is surprisingly a fairly good spot to go short SPY.

That's my bias.

Translating the technical view into fundamentals, we just had an overreaction to the Fed comments. Nothing has really changed at all. We will wake up tomorrow and Europe will be moving towards stimulating their economy and the US will be moving away from stimulating their economy. People will continue to rebalance out of Euros (either by exchanging Euros for European stocks or dollars) and selling US stocks (to get into dollars or European stocks). This will continue until either the stimulus game changes or investors reach a new balance they are comfortable with.